Tim Boyd (Blueshirt Advisors & Blueshirt Plus; ex-Bridgewater) joins me to discuss macro, trading vs investing, volatility, portfolio construction, the Fed, and much more!
We focus quite a bit on advice for less experienced investors, however there should be some good information for those who are more experienced too
As always, please send me any feedback whether good, bad or ugly, best to DM me on twitter; and if you have any requests for the show then suggestions are welcome!
Carbon Credits are a fascinating market & personal investment that I have talked about many times, in this podcast, and on twitter. I am therefore thrilled to have had on Lawson Steele, Head of Carbon & Utilities at Berenberg Bank to discuss the market in depth.
Lawson is THE expert in this space, and we cover a myriad of dynamics from the obvious political ones, the less obvious political ones, thru to how CCs affect corporates, what happens in a potential future world with decentralised power gen & storage, Germany & Nuclear, and much more
Ask yourself if you think they ARE indeed a new asset class once you have finished listening
As always, please send me any feedback whether good, bad or ugly, best to DM me on twitter; and if you have any requests for the show then suggestions are welcome too
I discuss my current framework for concentrated, high conviction, investing; and also the flip side, what learnings I have had when I don't have high conviction investments - as capital still needs to be put to work.
In this episode, we cover current high conviction investments, potential next high conviction 'radar' investments, the psychology involved, learnings I have had over the years that have helped reduce stress (i.e. when to outsource, things to stop doing).
As always, please let me know any feedback via DM on twitter (@Darky999), whether good, bad or ugly it's all welcome. If you have any requests for future episodes please also let me know.
We are back, with Series 2, Episode 1...!
This is meant to be a highly thought provoking Thought Experiment, it will trigger many people, but hopefully most people realise what it's getting at.
The inspiration for the episode were people on twitter who think Bitcoin will be 'THE' thing for literally forever - i.e. infinite time.
We dive into Relativity, Proof of Work (PoW), a crazy but scientifically sound way to break mining (which is likely impossible for probably 1,000s of years to come...), how we can control time, how this means we neatly circumvent some Energy requirements, and all with Physics that is generally considered to be correct, and proven beyond doubt (but note, Relativity is likely not the deepest theory, but it has been proven 1,000 different ways).
If you are offended by it then I would suggest you reassess the point of the podcast, it's absolutely not having a go at Bitcoin, it should be a light hearted take on an interesting Thought Experiment.
Link to prior episode with Jeff Snider about Next Generation Reserve Currencies
https://anchor.fm/chris-dark/episodes/37-Discussions-with-Jeff-Snider-Alhambra-Investments---Beyond-the-USD----Non-linear-thinking-about-the-next-potential-world-Reserve-Currency-eknmfg
Link to prior episode and PRIMER on Relativity:
https://anchor.fm/chris-dark/episodes/8-Relativity-and-Big-Stuff-eed4eh
Please share if you think this was fun, happy to do more if there is demand...
Recently one of my favourite podcasts, MacroVoices, had a discussion between the host Erik Townsend and Mike Green about Bitcoin's role in the Future of Digital Currency.
I have huge respect for both Erik and Mike, and so I immediately listened!
If you have not listened to it then I really recommend that you do, BEFORE listening to my reaction to it.
Unfortunately, I found the episode to be biased, misleading, and 5 years out of date. I woke up the next morning and had about 100 people asking me to do a reaction pod to it.
So here is that reaction pod.
It's a monologue, it's totally different to normal, and people may love or hate it (as always please send any feedback to me @Darky999)
I am candid, civil, and I think it's abundantly clear that this reaction is not in any way a personal attack on either Erik or Mike, quite the opposite, this is to add to the discussion about the financial system of the world, and how we can hopefully build a brighter future based on new technologies.
Greg Crennan (@GregCrennan), the CEO of Golden Coast Consultants, joins me to debate Bitcoin - bull vs bear. Greg is quizzing me in this episode, however also debating with me, and we dive into many of the often asked questions & pushbacks about Bitcoin
Greg and I fully agree about the long term bearish prospects of fiat money vs hard assets, and we both own gold & silver. So we should agree on Bitcoin right? Well we don't, so hence this debate!
This episode is not meant to change a mega-bear's mind about Bitcoin, instead it's aimed to hopefully educate those who haven't had the time (or inclination) to dive deeper, as there are many narratives that I don't think are relevant anymore, yet they stick around for years as many people's minds
As always, if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me @Darky999 on Twitter
Marty Bent (@martybent) joins me to dive deep into the non-obvious ramifications of Bitcoin, its technology and its network. With a deep dive into how the Oil & Gas industry could become dependent on Bitcoin over the next decade
Marty is a well known proponent of Bitcoin and both an original thinker but also a healthy sceptic that is realistic about current limitations of Blockchain technology. He is the host of the popular Bitcoin podcast Tales From The Crypt, and also has written his blog, Marty's Bent, daily since 2017. In addition, he is the Director of Business Development at Great American Mining , and for gold bug listeners, this is not about precious metal mining (but this does come up!)
We also discuss how Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) fit, or don't fit, into a world where Bitcoin, and Energy, underpin the financial system. This will sound far fetched to many, however please keep an open mind, one thing is for certain, the USD won't be the Reserve FX of the world for ever more... Dr Dark After Dark #37 is a good primer on potential Next Generation Reserve Currencies with Jeff Snider (of Alhambra Investments)
As always if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter @Darky999
Santiago Velez (@Santiag78758327) joins me to discuss Blockchains, the different types, their interoperability, and what the key features are that give advantages over legacy technology
This podcast is NOT about the price of Bitcoin, it's the first in a mini-series I am doing on Bitcoin & Blockchain, as many listeners have asked me to dive into the parts that are not covered as much as they should be
We cover blockchain basics, different types (especially enterprise vs permissionless), JPMorgan coin, XRP & Swift, and on to Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs), and then how all the above needs to interoperate, in order for the 'SMTP for money' (alluding to SMTP = the protocol that enabled email to interoperate) to revolutionise money, and the concept of value
And yes, we touch on the US Election, but from a perspective of how Blockchains can help Elections, not just in the US, but everywhere...
As always, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly
FedUpBizOwner (@HRGPFOREVER) joins me to discuss the US Election... We can all probably agree that we want to move on with life, and that having a peaceful transfer (Biden win), or no transfer (Trump win), of power is preferable for America and democracy. But is this realistic? Is the US heading for chaos for days, weeks, months (longer?!)
Why is Trump going to be in the White House on election night (and not in a hotel as is tradition)? Why has he asked N.C. voters to 'try and vote twice'? Why is 10:30pm EST such an important time on Tuesday 3rd? What scenarios are there for a peaceful and decisive election night?
FedUp is candid, he is traditionally a GOP voter, however he also hates Trump. So this he is very much not a far-left liberal (some people get this very wrong on twitter...!). You may agree or disagree with his views, however he is laying out what could happen in the next 48 hours, and it's better to be prepared for chaos (and it might not happen, if so that is good!), rather than to just be unprepared...
We also quickly cover right at the beginning the latest on the lending markets (FedUp's job is in Franchise Financing)
As always if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999), several episodes have come from listener ideas
Callum Thomas (@Callum_Thomas) joins me for a journey through his entrepreneurial experience; having founded TopDownCharts in 2016, and building it into a well known independent research firm, with clients across the world; doing this from New Zealand, and from the very southern tip of New Zealand too!
This episode is full of great tips 'n' tricks for anyone considering starting their own business, this was Callum's third attempt, and as it the norm, that made him stronger and more determined than ever to succeed. How did he find his Product/Market fit? How did he get his initial sales? How has COVID enabled him to scale in ways that were previously not possible?
We then move on to his macro process/framework, and his current views on all the major asset classes, we do talk about the US Election (it's hard not to right now!) and much more
Please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly; many ideas for episodes have come from listeners
Teddy is one of the new generation of Hedge Fund managers, having setup Pervalle Global in 2018. Pervalle is very much a macro fund ("macro is back, baby!"), investing across all asset classes, and it brings together a unique set of leading indicators into their investment process
As we all know, 2020 has been an 'interesting' year so far, certainly not one to be ever forgotten!
We dive into the the latest key dynamics across macro, ranging from US Election, COVID, inflation vs deflation, 2 y-axis charts (!), and much more
If you have any feedback please do DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) whether good/bad/ugly; several episodes have come from listener ideas & recommendations of guests
Super excited to have one of my most favourite macro analysts on the pod. Paul Hodges is a world-renowned expert on the Chemicals industry and Macro in general, and also the author of the pH Report. The Chemicals industry is the 3rd largest in the global economy and is interconnected with almost all physical products; the trends within it are one of the best leading macro indicators
We dive into the ticking demographic time bomb facing the world, and its many ramifications for people, business and governments. How COVID has changed most industries and now presents great opportunities for step changes in technology, and decentralisation - especially for budding entrepreneurs
The next 20 years will see far more new technology than the last 20 years as technology builds upon previous advances in an exponential manner, so it's healthy to not listen too much to people that say your latest 'crazy idea' is impossible!
As always, if you have any feedback good/bad/ugly please DM me on Twitter @Darky999
Jason Buck (@JasonMutiny) joins me for a wide-ranging discussions about the real 'vol' - volatility. Jason is one of the pre-eminent vol experts and has a great overview of the various strategies that can be deployed - as Mutiny is a fund-of-vol-funds
Going 'long vol' is talked about quite a lot, but there has been less focus on what a Retail Investor can practically do, so we talk about various specific long vol trades to give a flavour of what is possible; including a quick masterclass on 'The Greeks'
We also cover the VIX ETPs (VXX, VIXY) - how they can be used, and how people need to be very careful with them too, as well as Left tail vs Right positioning, some guidelines for assessing how to think about position sizing (spoiler: there is no silver bullet here!), and a new analogy on Coffee and Options :)
As always, please DM me on Twitter (@Darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly
Well-known Tesla bear, TESLAcharts (or TC), joins me to discuss his interview/podcast with the Founder & ex-Exec Chairman of Nikola Motor, Trevor Milton, and also a deep dive into SPACs (Special Purpose Acquisition Companies)
TC's podcast with Trevor Milton was a rare glimpse into the mind of the leader of a large public company - people like Trevor rarely go on the record in such detail. It received a lot of positive reviews, however also some criticism. No one could have know what would follow, with Trevor's resignation from Nikola soon after a damming report published by Hindenburg Research
We discuss the reasons for TC doing the interview, how he thinks it went, and address the criticisms he received too
Then we have a deep dive into SPACs, the incentives behind them, their pros & cons, and draw some analogies with Venture Capital and Private Equity
As always if you have any feedback whether good/bad/ugly, please DM me on Twitter @Darky999
This was a very different, and incredibly enjoyable conversation that really digs into what it takes to be an entrepreneur, emotions, how to hire, how to fail, how to understand that the journey is the destination, and ultimately why most people underestimate the impact of technology (very important for understanding the macro of tomorrow)
Jeff is a serial entrepreneur, a highly accomplished investor in tech startups (across many different industries), and he is the author of "The Price of Tomorrow - Why Deflation is Key to an Abundant Future"
The inflation vs deflation debate is highly topical, we discuss the incredibly strong forces that push towards deflation, most notable technology advancement, network effects and the ability to manipulate and learn from data (e.g. AI)
As always, please DM me on twitter (@darky999) if you have any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly it's all welcome!
Brent Johnson (@SantiagoAuFund) joins me to go 'Beyond the Milkshake' - and gives a masterclass in portfolio construction
Brent is well known for his Dollar Milkshake thesis that the USD will spike due to huge USD denominated debts across the world leading to a wave of defaults, and huge USD demand, but how can we go from a thesis to an actual portfolio? Also, is it possible to allocate in a manner that means if your thesis is ultimately wrong, you can still make money?
We dive into the nuances of portfolio construction, including timeframes, asset allocations, how to enter positions, profit taking strategies and much more
What does it take to realise a life-changing investment, i.e. 100x returns? How can we be ready for the mental challenges, the ridicule from friends & family for being 'crazy' and 'nuts', and the emotional ups and downs? Is the mindset required similar to being an entrepreneur?
Raoul Pal, CEO & Co-Founder Real Vision; Founder Global Macro Investor, is no stranger to this, as a serial entrepreneur and long time successful macro investor. We do a deep dive into the mental strength required to find, make, and ultimately realise life-changing returns. It's easy to say 'concentrate to accumulate, diversity to protect' however when should we concentrate a bet? What process should we follow to find it? How can we sleep at night (spoiler, have safety nets!) with so much on the line?
Whether an investment, or as an entrepreneur, you have to take risks in order to make life-changing returns, and whilst many podcasts and videos cover ideas for the next big thing, there has been less coverage of all the other aspects that need to be nailed in order to stay sane, actually realise the returns, and to not get wiped out if wrong (there is of course no guarantee you will be right).
As always, please DM me on twitter (@Darky999) with feedback whether good/bad/ugly, and for ideas for future episodes.
FedUpBizOwner (@HRGPFOREVER) returns for an episode dedicated to the Supreme Court & Election Politics. FedUp needs no introduction, his first episode on Mail In voting and Franchise Financing remains the most popular podcast in this series.
Today's episode has been eagerly anticipated so I hope it lives up to expectations! It was recorded at 8pm EST on Sunday 20th September
It's a doozie :)
Eric Basmajian, a Jedi Master of data, insights, and incredibly clear and well thought out logic joins me to discuss Inflation vs Deflation (deep dive here), how to think about constructing a portfolio (including ways of hedging), and how the upcoming US Election could affect markets, based upon various combinations of who controls what (POTUS, House, Senate).
Eric also gives his top tips for what non-obvious data to track (do you track Copper SCRAP prices, what about Plywood instead of Lumber?) in order to try to get a bit of a heads up for when the current reflationary impulse may turn back to the previous deflationary trend - whilst it's possible it doesn't, he leans towards a deflationary future in the medium term, especially in a US with no further stimulus (as politicians argue/procrastinate).
As always, please DM me on Twitter (@darky999) with any feedback, whether good/bad/ugly, and if you have ideas for future guests please also let me know.