Derisky Business is returning for season 2! After a brief hiatus in which obviously nothing (nothing!) notable happened in the world of trade and economic security, Emily and Geoff are back to dive into all your favorite economic security topics. In their first episode back, they are joined by Peter Harrell, the host of the "Security Economics" podcast, to discuss the concept of economic security agreements and why the U.S. should start bringing economic security priorities like export controls into formal trade deals.   Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity-How America Can Foster Economic Security”, Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025 Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, “Launch Economic Security Agreements” in CNAS Report: The First 100 Days Peter Harrell, “How Trump’s trade agreements can reduce US and allied economic ties with China”, Journal of International Economic Law, July 2, 2025 Geoffrey Gertz, Analysis of the new US-Malaysia trade agreement, LinkedIn

We interrupt our summer break to provide quick reactions to news this week that the Trump administration will begin allowing Nvidia and AMD to sell certain advanced semiconductors to China - so long as those companies agree to pay a commission fee to the U.S. government. While Emily is on vacation, Geoff is joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow and Managing Director of Garnaut Global Liza Tobin to dig into how we got to this point, if this arrangement is even legal, and what it means for the future of U.S.-China tech competition. Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “Trump Just Handed China the Tools to Beat America in AI”, The Free Press, August 11, 2025 Chris Miller, “China has its own concerns about Nvidia H20 chips”, Financial Times, August 11, 2025 Charles Rollet, “China's military tried to buy Nvidia chips for AI servers and a robot dog”, Business Insider, August 1, 2025

Emily and Geoff break their summer hiatus to launch a new CNAS report detailing insights from a trade wargame that examined how foreign governments might respond to a dramatic increase in U.S. tariffs. For this live event they are joined by trade experts Wendy Cutler, Meredith Lilly, and Thorsten Benner to discuss the report and catch up on the real-world trade wars. Derisky Business will return to regular programming in the fall. Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz, Game Over? How the United States Could Have Won the Trade Wars    

While Derisky Business goes on summer break, revisit your favorite episodes of the podcast and dive into the Summer Reading List, featuring book recommendations from previous podcast guests and work from CNAS experts. Emily and Geoff will be back in the fall to catch up on all the economic security happenings.   Read the list here!   https://www.cnas.org/publications/commentary/happy-summer-from-derisky-business

Richard Nephew, expert on sanctions and Iran’s nuclear program, joins Emily and Geoff to discuss the long history of U.S. policy towards Iran, the role of sanctions in constraining Iran’s nuclear program, and why the United States decided to proceed with military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He also explains why the next phase of Iran’s nuclear program might be the most dangerous.   Notes: Richard Nephew, The Art of Sanctions: A View from the Field Richard Nephew, “A Last Chance for Iran,” Foreign Affairs Richard Nephew, “Can Israel Destroy Iran’s Nuclear Program?” Foreign Affairs Thomas Schelling, Arms and Influence Suzanne Maloney, Political Economy of Iran Since the Revolution

Geoff and Emily debrief on the latest news in the U.S.-China trade talks. Becca Wasser, senior fellow and deputy director of the CNAS defense program, joins to talk about what Trump’s tariffs mean for the defense industrial base.Shownotes:Becca Wasser and Phil Sheers, “From Production Lines to Front Lines,” CNAS Keith Bradsher, “China’s Chokehold on This Obscure Mineral Threatens the West’s Militaries,” The New York Times Peter Foster, Demetri Sevastopulo, and Joe Leahy, “US and China agree to framework deal to restore trade war truce,” Financial Times Arthur L. Herman, Freedom’s Forge (Amazon link)   Jenny Leonard and Mackenzie Hawkins, "US Makes Export Controls Negotiable as Part of China Trade Talks", Bloomberg CNAS Annual Conference

Join Emily and Geoff for a special episode of Derisky Business, LIVE from the CNAS 2025 National Security Conference: America's Edge. Stick around for a recap of all that's new in the world of economic security, answering the biggest questions about the Trump administration's economic agenda. Find all sessions and more at conference.cnas.org

Paul Scharre, AI expert and CNAS Executive Vice President, joins Geoff and Emily to talk about Trump’s AI dealmaking in the Gulf, the rescission of the Biden-era AI diffusion regulations, and the implications for U.S. national security. Show notes:CNAS Annual Conference Paul Scharre, “The case for regulating AI like critical infrastructure,” TED Commerce Department, “Department of Commerce Rescinds Biden-Era Artificial Intelligence Diffusion Rule, Strengthens Chip-Related Export Controls” Mackenzie Hawkins and Jenny Leonard, “Tech Chiefs, Foreign Leaders Urge Trump to Rethink AI Chip Curbs,” Bloomberg Tripp Mickle and Ana Swanson, “Outsourcer in Chief: Is Trump Trading Away America’s Tech Future?,” The New York Times

China expert Liza Tobin, managing director at Garnaut Global and new CNAS adjunct senior fellow, joins Emily Kilcrease and Geoffrey Gertz to discuss the ins and outs of the US-China trade war and the longer-term geopolitical stakes of the tech and trade competition. Plus, Emily and Geoff explain why and how the Trump administration might follow through on its idea to put a 100% tariff on foreign-produced films. Notes: CNAS, CNAS Welcomes Shana Mansbach and Liza Tobin as Adjunct Senior Fellows Liza Tobin, “China’s Brute Force Economics: Waking Up from the Dream of a Level Playing Field,” Texas National Security Review Matt Pottinger and Liza Tobin, “China and America Aren’t Just in a Trade War. It’s a Fight for the 21st Century,” The Free Press Robert Atkinson and Liza Tobin, “The Missing Piece in America’s Strategy for Techno-Economic Rivalry with China,” Lawfare John Pomfret, The Beautiful Country and the Middle Kingdom

Emily and Geoff look back on the first 100 days of Trump’s trade policy, with a focus on how different parts of the U.S. political and economic system are reacting. They get into shifting public opinion on tariffs, congressional debates, market and private sector nervousness, and the courts - all of whom have a view on how the first 100 days of the Trump administration have played out. CNAS, The First 100 Days Irineo Cabreros and Aatish Bhatia, “Trump’s Astonishing 100 Days, in 8 Charts,” The New York Times Megan Brenan, “Most Americans Skeptical About Benefits of Tariffs,” Gallup Abha Bhattarai, Scott Clement and Emily Guskin, “Most Americans disapprove of Trump on tariffs, Post-ABC-Ipsos poll finds,” The Washington Post  

While Geoff is on travel, CNAS CEO Richard Fontaine joins Emily to unpack the latest trade war developments, including why President Trump paused his reciprocal tariffs and what might come next. Show notes: Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times  

This week, we have a special episode in our feed from our fellow CNAS podcast Brussels Sprouts, hosted by Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend of the Transatlantic Security Program. On this episode, recorded on April 3, Andrea and Jim are joined by Dan Mullaney and Tobias Gehrke to discuss how Trump's tariff announcement could impact European economies and the broader transatlantic relationship. Dan Mullaney is the former assistant U.S. trade representative for Europe and the Middle East and is a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. Tobias Gehrke is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations whose research covers geoeconomics and European Economic Strategy. Subscribe to Brussels Sprouts wherever you get your podcasts!

Emily and Geoff are recuperating from a busy Liberation Day of new tariff announcements. On this week’s episode, they break down what new tariffs the President announced, raise some questions about how this sweeping new tariff regime will actually be implemented, and discuss what a recent CNAS economic wargame suggests about how foreign countries might respond. Plus, they argue about who gets to negotiate with the penguins. Ana Swanson, “Want to Play a Game? Global Trade War Is the New Washington Pastime”, New York Times White House, “Regulating Imports with a Reciprocal Tariff to Rectify Trade Practices that Contribute to Large and Persistent Annual United States Goods Trade Deficits“ Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs”, Lawfare

Emily and Geoff catch up on the Trump administration’s first big action on China tech competition, before digesting this week’s big tariff news (on autos) and looking ahead to next week’s big tariff news - what President Trump has called “Liberation Day”.   Notes:   White House, America First Trade Policy Memo Polymarket betting market on Trump tariffs   Doug Irwin, “‘Reciprocal’ Tariffs Make No Sense,” Wall Street Journal Commerce Department, “Commerce Further Restricts China’s Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Computing Capabilities” White House, “Adjusting Imports of Automobiles and Automobile Parts Into the United States”

Emily and Geoff are joined by CNAS Adjunct Senior Fellow Eddie Fishman to discuss his new best-selling book Chokepoints, on how America has weaponized the global economy. They share economic war stories about U.S. actions against Iran, China, and Russia, and Eddie explains why his advice for the Trump administration on economic warfare is “to go big or go home”. Also, check out new CNAS research, Sanctions By The Numbers: 2024 Year in Review, which provides data-driven analysis on a record-setting sanctions year. Edward Fishman, “Chokepoints” Robin Wright, “Stuart Levey’s War”, New York Times Magazine Geoffrey Gertz, “Goodbye to Small Yard, High Fence”, New York Times Doug Irwin “Clashing Over Commerce” Stefan Zweig “The World of Yesterday”

On a live episode of Derisky Business, Emily and Geoff sit down with Peter Harrell, former White House Senior Director for International Economics, and Joyce Chang, Global Chair of Research with JP Morgan's Commercial and Investment Bank, to analyze the North American trade war, how U.S. trading partners, markets and the private sector are reacting, and why someone should sue over the tariffs. WSJ Editorial on IEEPA-based tariffs Brad Setser's "Follow the Money" blog Follow Peter Harrell on LinkedIn Eddie Fishman's "Chokepoints"   And register here for the CNAS Book Event with Eddie Fishman on 3/12  

Alexander Panetta, Washington correspondent for CBC, the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, joins Geoff and Emily to discuss Canada’s reactions to the latest trade war salvos. He explains Trump’s “reverse Midas touch” when it comes to shaping Canadian public opinion, discusses how the upcoming Canadian elections may alter Canada’s approach to the United States, and lays out the stakes of the trade war for the future of U.S.-Canadian relations. Register for tomorrow's event! Yougov polling, Many Americans and Canadians say higher U.S. tariffs hurt both economies; half of Canadians boycott U.S. companiesAndrea Mandel-Campbell, Why Mexicans Don't Drink Molson: Rescuing Canadian Business From the Suds of Global ObscurityLawrence Martin, The Presidents and the Prime Ministers: Washington and Ottawa Face to Face: The Myth of Bilateral Bliss, 1867-1982Tim Cook, The Good Allies: How Canada and the United States Fought Together to Defeat Fascism during the Second World War

 Emily and Geoff catch up on the America First Investment Policy memo and other news from the last week, before sitting down with Agathe Demarais of the European Council on Foreign Relations to discuss how Europe is responding to Trump and the future of the transatlantic economic security relationship. (Note: This episode was recorded prior to reports on Wednesday that the Trump administration intends to apply 25% tariffs on EU goods.) Register for a special CNAS conversation with Eddie Fishman who joins Emily to discuss his new book CHOKEPOINTS: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare.   Register for the event here! White House, America First Investment Policy White House, Defending American Companies and Innovators From Overseas Extortion and Unfair Fines and Penalties Agathe Demarais, Backfire: How Sanctions Reshape the World Against U.S. Interests Agathe Demarais, “Learning from shipwrecked sailors: Three ways Europeans can weather the Trump storm,” ECFR Commentary Agathe Demarais and Abraham Newman, “Europe Must Unlock Its Geoeconomic Power,” Foreign Affairs Agathe Demarais, “Why Putin is finally negotiating,” Politico Agathe Demarais, “Hard, fast, and where it hurts: Lessons from Ukraine-related sanctions for a Taiwan conflict scenario”, ECFR Policy Brief

Emily and Geoff quickly debrief on the week’s tariff news, including new 25% levies on steel and aluminum imports, before chatting all things semiconductors with Bruce Andrews, who until recently served as Intel’s chief government affairs officer. (Note: This episode was recorded Wednesday February 12, before President Trump's Thursday statements on reciprocal tariffs.) White House Proclamation “Adjusting Steel Imports Into the United States”, February 10, 2025 Bruce’s book recommendation “On Xi Jinping” by Kevin Rudd

Emily and Geoff digest this past weekend’s on-again, off-again 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, as well as the 10% tariffs on China (that at least for now are still here), and debate what these tariff dramas mean for the Trump team’s longer-term ambitions to restructure the global economic order. Geoffrey Gertz and Emily Kilcrease, “A World Safe for Prosperity: How America Can Foster Economic Security,” Foreign Affairs, February 6, 2025  Peter Harrell, “The Case Against IEEPA Tariffs,” Lawfare, January 31, 2025  Ambassador Robert E. Lighthizer, “Want Free Trade? May I Introduce You to the Tariff,” The New York Times, February 6, 2025  Noah Smith, “When are Tariffs Good?”, Noahpinon, February 6, 2025 Emily Kilcrease, "Articulate a Clear Tariff Roadmap," CNAS, January 20, 2025