In this solo episode, Patrick McKenzie reads his classic essay "Seeing Like a Bank," exploring why financial institutions often appear to have no memory of previous customer interactions despite being excellent at tracking money itself. He breaks down the complex web of legacy systems, tiered support structures, and regulatory constraints that create Kafka-esque experiences for bank customers. Using the lens of institutional legibility borrowed from "Seeing Like a State," Patrick explains how banks' technical architecture and organizational design choices—from core processing systems to customer service tiers—systematically generate the dysfunction that customers experience when things go wrong.
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Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-banks-actually-work/
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(03:52) Recordkeeping systems
(10:02) Sponsor: Safebase
(11:55) Human accountability and its malcontents
(23:02) Two embedded surprises about bank staffing
(27:51) Society has goals which conflict with banks being good at banking
(30:57) So what can be done about this?
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jim Weisser, a serial entrepreneur and founder of SignTime, for an in-depth exploration of Japan's software market and startup ecosystem. They discuss the unique challenges of building software in a culture that prizes stability over rapid iteration, the dominance of systems integrators, and how Japan's economic stagnation shaped its relationship with technology. The conversation covers everything from Excel-driven development processes to the recent transformation of Japan's VC landscape, offering insights for anyone considering doing business in the world's third-largest economy.
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Full transcript: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/building-software-in-japan-with-jim-weisser/
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Sponsor: BoxWorks 2025
Discover hands-on AI data extraction techniques, network with industry experts, and hear featured speakers Vinod Khosla, Jared Kaplan, and Aaron Levie at BoxWorks 2025 in San Francisco (Sept 11-12). Use code BW25-ComplexSystems for 50% off at this link: https://bit.ly/452036h
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Links:
Signtime:: https://www.signtime.com/en/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:24) Exploring the Japanese software market
(01:25) Challenges in the Japanese startup ecosystem
(02:37) Jim Weiser's background and journey
(05:14) The evolution of Japan's economy and business practices
(10:15) Understanding Japan Inc. and its impact on software
(10:28) The role of systems integrators in Japan
(19:01) Sponsor: Box
(20:29) Cultural differences in software development
(26:06) Digital transformation and efficiency in Japan
(32:44) Labor market dynamics and employment practices
(35:50) Startup ecosystem and equity culture in Japan
(42:53) Success stories and market potential in Japan
(43:42) Corporate relationships in Japanese companies
(44:10) Salesforce's success in Japan
(45:44) E-commerce boom in Japan
(46:33) Rakuten's evolution and strategy
(48:27) Amazon's journey in Japan
(49:13) Cloud services and security concerns
(51:18) Sansan: Business card management
(55:14) Venture capital landscape in Japan
(01:05:02) Personal reflections on living in Japan
(01:16:21) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by James Riney, partner at Coral Capital, to explore Japan's transformation from a $700 million startup ecosystem to today's $5-10 billion market. They discuss the cultural and structural factors that initially limited venture activity in Japan. The conversation covers unique aspects of building startups in Japan, from the quirks of being a foreign professional to why Japanese engineers love Twitter but ignore LinkedIn, plus insights into Japan's "time machine advantage" and why American-developed dev tools are going viral in Tokyo.
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Read full transcript here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/startup-investing-in-tokyo/
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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes! You can access them directly on YouTube: www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]
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Sponsor: Safebase
Leading companies use SafeBase to eliminate up to 98% of inbound security questionnaires, automate workflows, and accelerate pipeline. Go to safebase.io/podcast
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:57) The early days of Japanese startups
(04:08) The rise of Coin Check
(05:54) Challenges and opportunities in the Japanese startup ecosystem
(16:09) Cultural and structural differences in hiring
(19:47) Sponsor: Safebase
(21:22) The role of content and communication in Japanese startups
(31:29) LinkedIn vs. Facebook in Japanese work culture
(32:38) LinkedIn's social capital issues in Japan
(33:58) Cultural differences in asking for permission
(34:31) Navigating Japanese regulatory clarity
(36:49) The evolution of VC investment in Japan
(39:54) The rise of SaaS in Japan
(45:26) System integrators and software development in Japan
(50:39) Challenges in Japanese tech companies
(54:36) Opportunities for foreign companies in Japan
(55:03) The importance of commitment in the Japanese market
(57:08) Dev tools and viral adoption in Japan
(59:31) Japan's influence on global tech
(01:03:23) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie is joined by AI researcher Yoav Tzfati to discuss “vibe coding” - using LLMs to delegate software engineering work to AI models. Yoav runs a bootcamp teaching programming novices to build full-stack web applications using AI, without them ever looking at code. Patrick and Yoav discuss the fundamental shift in software engineering, where humans increasingly act as product managers directing AI "junior engineers," and explore the implications for the future of programming careers and the democratization of software development.
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Read full transcript here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-ai-reshapes-software-engineering/
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:32) Defining vibe coding
(01:35) The evolution of software engineering with LLMs
(04:07) Practical applications of vibe coding
(09:37) Teaching vibe coding to novices
(18:30) Future of AI in software development
(21:42) Discussing timelines and model capabilities
(22:12) Flappy Bird and the evolution of game development
(23:27) The impact of LLMs on software engineering
(24:46) Future of coding and human roles
(29:47) Monitoring and error handling in software
(31:20) The role of LLMs in code review and maintenance
(35:12) Wireframing and project management with LLMs
(36:40) The future of software engineering careers
(43:07) Practical tips for software engineers
(44:38) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Cate Hall, CEO of Astera Institute and author of a forthcoming book on agency, to explore how individuals can systematically develop higher agency in their lives. They discuss the selection effects that draw agentic people to fields like poker and startups, the importance of being comfortable with ignorance and feedback, and practical strategies like asking "Is there a better way to do this?" ten times daily. Cate shares insights from her journey from Supreme Court lawyer to world champion poker player, including how peer groups, emergencies, and what addicts call "the gift of desperation" can trigger step-changes in personal agency.
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Full transcript available here:
https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/stacking-the-odds-cate-hall/
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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes like this one.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:28) Exploring the concept of agency
(00:56) Selection effects in different fields
(01:31) The tech industry evolution
(02:54) Y Combinator's changing demographics
(04:23) Parallels between poker and startups
(15:48) The role of networking and relationships
(19:12) Embracing feedback and continuous improvement
(23:49) Exploring growth mindset
(24:35) AI and personal improvement
(27:04) Learning with AI: strategies and cautions
(27:53) The value of human interaction
(30:19) Professional gamblers and their unique insights
(35:05) Understanding agency and its development
(38:45) Triggers for increased agency
(45:23) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined again by Ricki Heicklen to discuss the evolution of her trading education business, Arbor, one year after their first conversation. They dive deep into the pedagogy of trading, exploring how simulated markets teach concepts like adverse selection, team dynamics, and risk management through hands-on experience. Ricki shares war stories from the bootcamp trenches—infinite loop bugs that mirror Knight Capital's disaster, WiFi outages that create unexpected trading opportunities, and that the most successful trading teams often focus on internal team communication even more than trade execution or technical acumen.
See the full transcript:
https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/think-like-a-trader-ricki-heicklen/
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[Patrick notes: Complex Systems now produces occasional video episodes.You can access them directly on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast. My kids inform me that I’m supposed to tell you to like and subscribe.]
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:46) Ricki's journey from trading to teaching
(01:25) The birth of Arbor and first bootcamps
(03:32) Developing a trader's mindset
(05:53) Understanding heuristics in trading
(08:21) Adverse selection in everyday life
(15:40) Insights from teaching trading bootcamps
(21:07) Pedagogical approach: learning by doing
(32:00) Handling mistakes and learning opportunities
(36:17) Unplanned bugs and real-world lessons
(39:47) Learning from Knight Capital's bug
(40:24) Understanding exchange-side bugs
(43:10) Risk limits and strategy separation
(44:41) Importance of UI in trading bots
(46:53) The Madagascar button
(48:20) The big red button in manufacturing
(49:45) Simulated trading and information aggregation
(50:29) Sibling trading game explained
(53:24) Modeling and hidden information
(01:01:15) Trading behavior and market updates
(01:04:38) Real-world applications and lessons
(01:13:58) Surprises and market opportunities
(01:16:24) Pedagogical approaches in trading education
(01:17:08) Market dynamics and counterparty behavior
(01:17:53) Retail vs. institutional order flow
(01:19:23) Simplifying trading concepts for beginners
(01:21:27) Introducing market characters and their roles
(01:31:31) Team dynamics and communication in trading
(01:39:13) The importance of redundancy in trading systems
(01:47:52) Future of trading education and online classes
(01:53:47) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie is joined by Adam Jarvis, author of the Public Service substack and a New Zealand civil engineer and public sector veteran. They discuss how political capital constraints, funding misalignment across government levels, and accumulated regulatory "scar tissue" make infrastructure projects extraordinarily difficult. The conversation reveals why replacing a water pipe now costs more in planning than the entire project did a decade ago, and how talent sorting has drained capacity from public institutions. Despite these challenges, Patrick and Adam find reasons for optimism about reforming government capacity.
Complex Systems now has video episodes as well. Watch this episode and subscribe at: https://www.youtube.com/@patio11podcast
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Full transcript: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/achieving-results-in-the-physical-world-with-adam-jarvis-of-public-service/
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction to Complex Systems
(01:13) Understanding local government functions
(03:41) Challenges in public sector project delivery
(06:31) Funding complexities in public projects
(09:14) The burden of regulatory and legislative constraints
(17:04) Appreciating the infrastructure we take for granted
(23:02) Historical and modern infrastructure challenges
(30:04) Talent mobility and its impact on public sector
(33:35) Public sector hiring practices
(34:11) Agglomeration effects and brain drain
(36:04) Aging population and resource allocation
(36:59) Structural factors in public sector layoffs
(37:49) Hiring and firing in the public sector
(40:39) Labor mobility and job security
(46:34) AI and automation in public sector jobs
(52:56) Risk aversion and process overload
(01:01:30) Optimism for public sector reform
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Jennifer Li, a general partner at a16z investing in enterprise, infrastructure and AI. Jennifer breaks down how AI workloads are creating new demands on everything from inference pipelines to observability systems, explaining why we're seeing a bifurcation between language models and diffusion models at the infrastructure level. They explore emerging categories like reinforcement learning environments that help train agents, the evolution of web scraping for agentic workflows, and why Jennifer believes the API economy is about to experience another boom as agents become the primary consumers of software interfaces.
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Full transcript:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-ai-infrastructure-stack-with-jennifer-li-a16z/
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Sponsor: Vanta
Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:55) The AI shift and infrastructure
(02:24) Diving into middleware and AI models
(04:23) Challenges in AI infrastructure
(07:07) Real-world applications and optimizations
(15:15) Sponsor: Vanta
(16:38) Real-world applications and optimizations (cont’d)
(19:05) Reinforcement learning and synthetic environments
(23:05) The future of SaaS and AI integration
(26:02) Observability and self-healing systems
(32:49) Web scraping and automation
(37:29) API economy and agent interactions
(44:47) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) recorded with Zvi Mowshowitz (TheZvi) live at the LessOnline conference. They explore practical strategies for getting better results from large language models. Zvi explains how to customize AI behavior through thoughtful system prompts, while Patrick shares techniques for using LLMs as writing partners and research assistants. They discuss the evolving relationship between content creators and AI training data, touching on the emerging field of "generative engine optimization" (GEO). The conversation also covers multimodal capabilities, recursive AI use, and strategies for avoiding common failure modes like hallucination and sycophancy.
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Full transcript: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/getting-better-at-llms-with-zvi-mowshowitz/
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Sponsor: Vanta
Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(01:08) Understanding system prompts
(02:04) Customizing LLM behavior
(05:58) Memory features in LLMs
(10:21) Generative Engine Optimization (GEO)
(15:59) Sponsor: Vanta
(17:17) Art and AI: Enhancing creativity
(20:36) Recursive use of AIs
(25:22) Addressing LLM frustrations
(27:05) Checking for hallucinations in AI outputs
(28:11) Experimenting with AI models
(29:44) Optimizing AI prompts and outputs
(31:19) Using AI for writing and editing
(32:32) AI as a research and writing partner
(33:26) Prompting AI and humans effectively
(39:39) Balancing AI assistance with personal voice
(51:03) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) discusses software reversing and AI's transformative impact on cybersecurity with Caleb Fenton, co-founder of Delphos Labs. They explore how LLMs are revolutionizing the traditionally tedious work of analyzing compiled binaries, the nation-state cyber warfare landscape, and how AI is shifting security from reactive to proactive defense. They cover the technical details of malware analysis, the economics of vulnerability detection, and the broader implications as both defenders and attackers gain access to increasingly powerful AI tools.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/machine-learning-meets-malware-with-caleb-fenton/
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Sponsor: Mercury
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com
Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Links:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:20) Understanding software reversing
(03:52) The role of AI in software security
(06:12) Nation-state cyber warfare
(09:33) The future of digital warfare
(16:45) Sponsor: Mercury
(17:49) Reverse engineering techniques
(30:15) AI's impact on reverse engineering
(41:45) The importance of urgency in security alerts
(42:47) The future of reverse engineering
(43:21) Challenges in security product development
(44:46) AI in vulnerability detection
(46:09) The evolution of AI models
(48:06) Reasoning models and their impact
(49:06) AI in software security
(49:49) The role of linters in security
(57:38) AI's impact on various fields
(01:02:42) AI in education and skill acquisition
(01:08:51) The future of AI in security and beyond
(01:12:43) The adversarial nature of AI in security
(01:19:46) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) revisits his widely-shared negotiation essay, which he notes may be the most impactful thing he's done in his career aside from VaccinateCA. The essay covers the psychology and tactics of salary negotiation, emphasizing that engineers have turned being bad at negotiation into a "perverse badge of virtue" and that the financial stakes are enormous—a small salary increase compounds over decades to six-figure differences. Patrick walks through practical advice including never giving a number first, understanding how employers actually think about compensation costs, and reframing negotiation as a professional business discussion rather than something morally questionable.
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Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/how-to-negotiate-your-salary-package/
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Sponsor: Mercury
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com
Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(03:25) Why negotiation matters
(05:21) Shifting your mindset to embrace negotiation
(06:49) Your counterparty does not share your mental model of negotiation
(12:46) Your negotiation started before you applied to this job
(17:21) When does a salary negotiation happen?
(19:38) Sponsor: Mercury
(23:16) The first rule is what everyone tells you it is: never give a number first
(28:45) Listen to what people tell you. Repeat it back to them.
(33:22) Research, research, research
(37:13) New information is valuable and can be traded for things you want
(41:20) You have a multi-dimensional preference set. Use it.
(44:08:) For your further perusal
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and returning guest Ross Rheingans-Yoo discuss the strategic advantages of starting a podcast, particularly for professionals seeking to build trust, expand their networks, and support fundraising efforts. They explore the nuts and bolts of podcast production models, recording logistics, transcript creation, and how to make the experience frictionless for high-value guests. Ross shares his thought process around his newly-launched show Development and Research while Patrick gives a behind the scenes look at the makings of Complex Systems.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/capitalists-guide-to-podcasting-with-ross-rheingans-yoo
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Sponsor: Mercury
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com
Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:18) The power of podcasting for venture capitalists
(03:09) Building trust through voice
(07:11) Podcast production models
(16:38) Recording and equipment essentials
(23:05) Sponsor: Mercury
(24:18) Post-production and transcripts
(32:22) Advertising vs. User experience
(33:28) Creating standalone artifacts
(34:20) The power of video clips
(35:22) Challenges in podcast distribution
(42:12) The role of guests in podcasts
(47:12) Pre-recording preparation
(49:22) Recording session best practices
(54:22) The value of silence in conversations
(56:38) Launching and growing a podcast
(59:18) Trading bootcamp
(1:02:27) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Jacob Swett of Blueprint Biosecurity to discuss far UVC technology - a specialized wavelength of UV light that kills airborne pathogens while remaining safe for humans. Jacob explains how widespread deployment of this technology in schools, hospitals, and public spaces could dramatically reduce respiratory diseases and prevent future pandemics, comparing our approach to air quality with the water sanitation revolution that eliminated diseases like typhoid. They discuss the economics of implementation (starting around $30 per student annually with costs likely decreasing), the historical reasons why this technology hasn't been widely deployed, and Blueprint Biosecurity's roadmap for increasing adoption from early users to eventual regulations similar to fire safety codes.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/killing-viruses-with-light-with-jacob-swett/
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Sponsor: Mercury
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com
Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:31) The importance of indoor air quality
(01:29) Technologies for cleaner air
(02:31) The promise of Far-UVC
(03:10) Impact of COVID-19 on air quality awareness
(04:11) Understanding Far-UVC light
(06:44) Applications and benefits of Far-UVC
(16:42) Challenges and adoption of Far-UVC
(20:40) Sponsor: Mercury
(21:53) Challenges and adoption of Far-UVC (Part 2)
(23:19) Cost and benefits of Far-UVC
(26:40) The broader impact of respiratory pathogens
(29:41) Rediscovering the world for better health
(30:05) Historical perspectives on infectious diseases
(30:57) The role of sanitation and antibiotics
(33:02) Miasma theory and airborne transmission
(34:59) Impact of World War II on disease research
(38:06) The evolution of public health priorities
(42:39) Future of Far-UVC Technology
(46:03) Challenges in implementing Far-UVC
(56:47) The importance of rigorous studies
(01:00:33) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Zac Townsend, a serial founder and CEO of Meanwhile, a fully regulated life insurance company operating in Bitcoin. They explore the differences between life and property insurance, explain why term life is essential financial protection everyone should consider, and dive into the tax benefits that shape the industry. Zac shares insights on how private equity firms are acquiring insurers for their stable capital base, and explains Bermuda's role as the world's insurance capital.
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Full transcript available here: https://www.complexsystemspodcast.com/life-insurance-and-your-money-with-zac-townsend/
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Sponsor: Mercury
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com
Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:23) Overview of Meanwhile Insurance
(00:56) How Bitcoin is being used in the insurance industry
(02:12) Understanding different types of insurance
(06:13) Term life insurance explained
(07:26) Life insurance tips for tech professionals
(12:47) Permanent life insurance and annuities
(18:57) Sponsor: Mercury
(20:11) Insurance regulatory insights
(25:46) Principal-agent problems in insurance
(37:09) Tax considerations in life insurance
(42:16) Leveraging life insurance for estate planning
(44:55) Premium financing explained
(47:39) Wealth management and market segmentation
(52:09) Regulatory challenges and mispricing in insurance
(01:03:32) Reinsurance and the role of bermuda
(01:10:27) Private equity's interest in insurance
(01:14:24) Building a crypto life insurance company
(01:20:02) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Mikey Dickerson to discuss the complex realities behind government software projects. Mikey shares insights from leading the healthcare.gov rescue effort and founding the United States Digital Service, explaining how procurement processes create requirements through committee decision-making without market-based feedback loops. They explore how government systems handle software development differently than industry, with Mikey noting that the issues are less about individual competence and more about systemic incentives that reward risk aversion. The conversation covers the challenges of "modernization" efforts, the loss of organizational management knowledge over decades, and reflection on when and how technologists might effectively contribute to public service.
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Full transcript available here:
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Sponsor: Mercury
This episode is brought to you by Mercury, the fintech trusted by 200K+ companies — from first milestones to running complex systems. Mercury offers banking that truly understands startups and scales with them. Start today at Mercury.com
Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided by Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank & Trust; Members FDIC.
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Recommended in this episode:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/fixing-government-technology-with-mikey-dickerson/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:24) Government software procurement
(06:02) Fighter planes and requirements
(08:37) Software development cycles
(11:37) Deadline challenges
(12:18) California vaccine scheduling
(16:15) Pandemic priorities
(17:27) Sponsor: Mercury
(18:40) Government employee competence
(22:30) Government pay scales
(25:56) IRS modernization reports
(27:48) System modernization plans
(34:33) Healthcare.gov lessons
(40:29) Feedback loops in civil service
(44:09) Legislative expertise
(46:49) Applied mathematics
(47:57) Loss of knowledge
(49:28) Tour of duty recommendation
(53:06) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Daniel Golliher, founder of Maximum New York, to discuss the opaque mechanics of political power and how everyday people can effectively engage with government systems. They explore the stark gap between formal political science degrees and how politics actually works, practical tactics for influencing policy (like optimizing the printability of a blog post to placing well-timed calls to legislators), and Daniel’s concept of ‘blue tape’. Throughout the conversation, they emphasize that participating in governance requires far less expertise and connections than most people assume—mainly just the willingness to show up prepared.
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Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/understanding-and-wielding-power-in-local-government-with-daniel-golliher/
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Sponsor: Vanta
Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex
–
Recommended in this episode:
–
Timestamps
(00:00) Intro
(00:33) The reality of political science education
(02:45) The apprenticeship model in government
(04:24) Challenges in government training
(07:06) The role of legislative aides
(10:33) Local government and housing policies
(14:24) Effective political engagement
(16:15) The power of communication in policy
(20:26) Sponsor: Vanta
(21:44) Witnessing government in action
(31:29) Learning government and politics
(32:21) LLMs and policy
(35:10) Engaging with local politics
(37:58) Influencing policy
(43:25) Running for office
(47:10) Blue tape
(58:39) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Tim Fist, Director of Emerging Technologies at the Institute for Progress, to discuss how energy constraints could bottleneck AI development. They explore how AI training clusters will soon require gigawatts of power—equivalent to multiple nuclear plants—with projections showing a single cluster needing 5 gigawatts by 2030. Tim explains why behind-the-meter generation and geothermal energy offer promising solutions while regulatory hurdles like NEPA and transmission permitting create "litigation doom loops" that threaten America's competitiveness. The conversation covers the global race for compute infrastructure, with China and the UAE making aggressive investments while the US struggles with permitting delays, highlighting how energy policy will determine which nations lead the AI revolution.
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Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-ai-energy-bottleneck-with-tim-fist/
–
Sponsor: Vanta
Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex
–
Recommended in this episode:
–
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:40) Energy bottlenecks in AI development
(02:56) Technical and policy solutions for energy needs
(05:18) Challenges in transmission infrastructure
(12:14) Behind the meter generation explained
(17:50) Solar and storage: The future of energy
(18:47) Sponsor: Vanta
(20:05) Solar and storage: The future of energy (part 2)
(29:07) Power purchase agreements and financing
(33:17) Financing geothermal wells
(33:53) The promise of geothermal energy
(35:25) Challenges in geothermal adoption
(36:59) Industrial applications of geothermal heat
(45:01) Geothermal energy and national security
(49:27) Global investments in AI and energy infrastructure
(56:29) Policy and technical expertise in AI
(01:00:54) The role of government in technological advancements
(01:05:07) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (@patio11) is joined by Haseeb Qureshi, a managing partner at Dragonfly, a crypto-focused VC fund. They discuss the evolution of stablecoins, three key use cases, and their impact on international finance. Haseeb explains how stablecoins have grown beyond their initial association with crypto trading and illicit activities to serve legitimate economic functions globally, in ways that many Americans might not fully appreciate. Patrick and Haseeb debate the regulatory landscape, the strategic ambiguity of crypto's positioning, and whether stablecoins represent a parallel financial system that might eventually converge with traditional banking.
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Full transcript available here: www.complexsystemspodcast.com/taking-stablecoins-seriously-with-haseeb-qureshi/
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Sponsor: Safebase
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:55) Crypto industry insights and tether discussion
(02:52) Stablecoins and their economic models
(05:04) Decentralized stablecoins and their mechanisms
(07:41) VC perspective on stablecoin investments
(13:18) Regulatory challenges and lobbying in crypto
(20:36) Emerging use cases for stablecoins
(24:16) Sponsor: Safebase
(32:35) The initial response to stablecoins
(33:38) Stablecoins and national security concerns
(34:00) The shift in congressional attitude
(34:49) Stablecoins and dollar internationalization
(37:40) Retail payments in high-inflation countries
(38:41) The role of black markets
(46:13) International B2B payments
(01:02:57) The future of stablecoins
(01:05:44) Wrap
Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Emily Sands, Head of Information at Stripe, to discuss how they leverage AI to process over $1.4 trillion annually, while navigating the complex web of merchants, banks, and payment rails that facilitate online commerce. Patrick and Emily cover how Stripe’s layered stack of AI combats sophisticated card testing attacks, recovers billions in once-lost revenue through intelligent retry strategies, and enables new businesses to compete with established players through powerful network effects. They also talk about the meteoric rise of AI companies, and how agent-assisted commerce is beginning to transform online shopping through controlled financial rails.
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Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/the-past-present-and-future-of-ai-with-stripe/
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Sponsor: Vanta
Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:21) Stripe's role in financial infrastructure
(02:20) AI and ML at Stripe
(07:36) Understanding payment processing
(15:06) The evolution of fraud detection
(19:22) Advanced fraud detection techniques
(22:55) Sponsor: Vanta
(24:14) Advanced fraud detection techniques (part 2)
(34:53) Card testing and fraud prevention
(45:29) Adaptive acceptance and future of payments
(46:35) Optimizing payment systems with AI
(47:13) Understanding ISO messages and credit card protocols
(48:37) The importance of semantically neutral changes
(51:22) Stripe's enhanced issuer network
(56:00) Handling chargebacks and friendly fraud
(01:04:55) Personalizing the checkout experience
(01:16:44) The meteoric rise of AI startups
(01:26:05) Agent-assisted commerce
(01:32:58) Wrap
In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) challenges a recent Atlantic article claiming that low-income cardholders subsidize credit card rewards through high interest payments. Drawing from his Bits About Money essay Anatomy of a credit card rewards program, Patrick explains that rewards are primarily funded by interchange fees paid by merchants, not by interest charges.
To the extent those interchange is passed along to customers, it falls mostly on rich customers, because rich customers spend more. They spend more in interchange than they earn in rewards. Issuing banks and researchers who have looked at the data mostly agree here.
Patrick also breaks down the credit card rewards game, showing how banks strategically design card offerings for different market segments and explains the portfolio mathematics that disprove the cross-subsidization narrative.
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Full transcript available here:
www.complexsystemspodcast.com/credit-card-rewards-interchange/
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Sponsor: Vanta
Vanta automates security compliance and builds trust, helping companies streamline ISO, SOC 2, and AI framework certifications. Learn more at https://vanta.com/complex
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Recommended in this episode:
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Timestamps:
(00:31) A recent Atlantic article's false thesis
(09:35) Rebating interchange to earn share of wallet
(14:48) Sponsor: Vanta
(16:56) Why isn’t every card a rewards card?
(27:56) The complexity spectrum of rewards products
(29:55) A fun rabbit hole about credit card acceptance
(33:53) Back to more complicated cases
(45:45) Further refinements in cat and mouse games
(51:24) Giving the customer more choices more frequently
(58:10) More directions to go in
(01:01:54) Patrick’s counterproposal
