@rundmcd is back to talk about evaluating risk!  (AKA "Dave tells me the 3 pitchers I'm allowed to draft this year!")

11:20 Carlos Rodon

22:05 Jacob deGrom

31:15 Shane Bieber

38:50 Chris Sale

44:15 Luis Severino

54:05 Clevinger vs Verlander

1:14:43 Clayton Kershaw, and Dinelson Lamet "When I see PRP, I'm out." - Dave

1:27:30 Zac Gallen

Find us on Twitter!  He's @rundmcd, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Greg (@gjewett9) helps me size up EVERY team once again, as I do last minute cramming for my Main Event draft tomorrow.

2:05 Baltimore Orioles

3:20 Boston Red Sox

5:25 Chicago White Sox

5:50 Cleveland

9:45 Detroit Tigers

10:45 Houston Astros

12:20 KC Royals

13:50 LA Angels

15:10 Minnesota Twins

16:30 NY Yankees

17:10 Oakland A's

18:15 Seattle Mariners

19:55 Tampa Rays

25:35 Texas Rangers

26:55 Toronto Blue Jays

27:40 Arizona Diamondbacks

29:20 Atlanta Braves

30:25 Chicago Cubs

31:40 Cincinnati Reds

33:40 Colorado Rockies

35:20 LA Dodgers

36:25 Miami Marlins

37:20 Milwaukee Brewers

38:35 NY Mets

39:15 Philadelphia Phillies

41:10 Pittsburgh Pirates

44:10 San Diego Padres

46:25 SF Giants

48:30 St Louis Cardinals

50:10 Washington Nationals

51:55 Speculative pick ups, stashes, and late round darts

Find us on Twitter!  He's @gjewett9, and I'm @commonsensefbb.

Rob and I talk about his podcast and his leagues, and how we're building our teams in DC leagues and FAAB leagues.

06:20 Differences in drafting strategies for Draft and Hold (Draft Champions) leagues vs FAAB leagues

11:00 Catchers

16:45 Closers

22:45 Stolen Bases

31:25 Luis Robert

37:55 Keston Hiura and Javy Baez (and other swing and miss guys)

44:25 Tim Anderson

51:10 Prospects

58:00 Pitchers (Means, Urquidy, Yarbrough, Minor)

1:12:00 Late DC picks

He's @deadpullhitter, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Dave (@RunDMcD) shares what he's learned through years of experience, about how to assess players' risks in fantasy baseball.

1:45 Verlander, going into 2020

6:00 How to think about taking a guy off your board completely

9:35 Sale, Syndergaard, and Severino (don't draft guys who won't be playing)

11:45 Taillon (it can take a while to get back your skills)

18:10 deGrom (we can disagree on how much risk there is, but don't ignore it as a part of the assessment)

27:40 Scherzer (we all see the risks, but we don't seem to know how to price them in)

31:40 Strasburg (fear of the unknown plus the price...plus the fact that he's had injury issues all through the years)

34:10 Lamet (he's injured now...plus, PRP means TJ a lot of the time)

37:20 Carrasco (the risk/reward is a value at the price)

40:30 Musgrove (going late enough to take a risk)

43:35 Canning (after pick 300, go for upside)

46:25 Stanton vs Buxton (price matters, many paths to value, UT downgrade, career IL days, paying for a career year, volume of injuries vs the type of injury -- both matter)

He's @RunDMcD, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

@MattWi77iams and I discuss some players we think are going too early:

3:40 Jose Abreu around pick 30 and Luke Voit around pick 60 - Matt

8:25 Pablo Lopez around pick 100 - Drew

15:45 Walker Buehler around pick 20 - Matt

20:30 Kyle Lewis around pick 75 (but even at pick 100-120) - Drew

26:05 Randy Arozarena around pick 60 - Matt

-- 32:20 an aside on Mondesi --

Then we discuss some players we think are going too late:

38:00 Austin Meadows and Yoan Moncada (around pick 85) - Matt

41:45 Matt Chapman around pick 120 - Drew

45:50 Rafael Devers around pick 50 - Matt

48:00 Zack Greinke around pick 100 - Drew

54:00 Bryan Reynolds around pick 325 - Drew

He's @MattWi77iams, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Greg (@gjewett9) and I look at every MLB team and discuss the closer situation, as best we can tell in November.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

1:30 Baltimore Orioles

3:40 Boston Red Sox

6:20 Chicago White Sox

8:25 Cleveland Indians

11:10 Detroit Tigers

13:50 Houston Astros

15:50 Kansas City Royals

18:10 Los Angeles Angels

20:10 Minnesota Twins

21:30 New York Yankees

23:50 Oakland Athletics

26:20 Seattle Mariners

27:35 Tampa Bay Rays

29:10 Texas Rangers

31:45 Toronto Blue Jays

NATIONAL LEAGUE

33:55 Arizona Diamondbacks

36:15 Atlanta Braves

38:30 Chicago Cubs

41:05 Cincinnati Reds

43:40 Colorado Rockies

45:35 Los Angeles Dodgers

47:45 Miami Marlins

50:25 Milwaukee Brewers

54:10 New York Mets

57:05 Philadelphia Phillies

59:15 Pittsburgh Pirates

1:02:05 San Diego Padres

1:04:45 San Francisco Giants

1:06:15 St Louis Cardinals

1:07:15 Washington Nationals

1:08:10 BONUS - Greg's Hader-type breakout formula

He's @gjewett9, I'm @commonsensefbb -- find us on Twitter!

Zack and I take a look at early ADP from Justin Mason's "2 Early Mock Drafts" and Zack's draft and hold leagues that are drafting for real already.

4:10 We gently poke fun at mock drafts and point out some shortcomings

Then we discuss players we think are going too early (AVOIDS):

7:10 Mike Clevinger at ADP 61 (Zack)

19:40 Pete Alonso at ADP 53 (Drew)

25:55 Sixto Sanchez at ADP 80 (Zack)

34:00 Gleyber Torres at ADP 63 (Drew...Zack disagrees)

40:05 Gary Sanchez at ADP 169 (Zack)

45:35 Joey Gallo at ADP 127 (Drew)

Next we move on to players we think are going too late (TARGETS):

50:35 Gio Urshela at ADP 158 (Drew) ...take him instead of Vlad!

56:40 Zach Plesac at ADP 80 (Zack)

1:04:25 Tommy Edman at ADP 179 (Drew)

1:10:30 Dansby Swanson at ADP 106 (Zack)

1:18:07 Triston McKensie at ADP 208 (Drew)

1:27:30 Michael Pineda at ADP 275 (Zack)

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Toby returns to talk about some up and coming players!

1:10 the keys to Toby's success in 2020

4:45 Off season prep begins!  We start by discussing some lessons learned.

Then we discuss some breakout players:

16:10 Corey Seager

27:40 Luke Voit

34:45 Teoscar Hernandez

42:05 Kyle Lewis

49:20 Dominic Smith

56:00 An aside about Stolen Bases

1:00:50 Austin Nola

1:05:40 Some other guys (Slater, Santander, Cronenworth, Arozarena, Walsh, Happ, Moore)

1:21:40 Who could be the Corbin Burnes or Dylan Bundy of 2021?

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Some thoughts on strike out rate, BABIP, and what they mean for batting average.

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Connect with me on Twitter @commonsensefbb!

Opening day didn't happen...yet.  But @gjewett9 and I discuss baseball anyway!

2:00 Greg's current project

6:05 Bo Bichette - SS

20:35 Isiah Kiner-Falefa - C

25:35 Josh Bell - 1B (and a great call out by Greg, CJ Cron)

30:30 Jeff McNeil - 2B (with Cesar Hernandez call out by Greg)

35:35 Yandy Diaz - 3B

39:00 OFs (Judge, Eloy, Stanton, Soler, Franimal, Schwarber)

45:00 Luzardo and Urias - SPs (Greg's call out: Rich Hill)

48:35 RPs

56:15 Rougned Odor

59:05 Ian Happ (or Dansby Swanson one pick later!)

Welcome back @zackroto!

We start off talking some strategy:

1:40 Top SPs - Aces, Pocket Aces and how we draft them

5:10 The case for an Ace

10:50 Draft Champions vs FAAB leagues -- the point in the draft where strategy changes

Then we discuss rounds 19 and 20:

18:05 Avoid AJ Pollock at 272

19:45 Avoid Joey Votto at 271

20:55 Buster Posey or Danny Jansen?

23:35 Gregory Polanco and his risks vs Solak, Wil Myers, or others and their risks

26:35 What if Solak wasn't UT only?

27:45 Players that drop and players to reach on

29:50 Domingo Santana's path to playing time

31:50 SPs I'm not really looking at here (largely because of innings concerns and other PT risks)

34:25 Not so into Myers or Kieboom for 2020

35:20 Josh James or Mackenzie Gore rather than lower-upside options

38:30 Catchers without much upside, and closers that might not be closers

39:20 Target Dylan Carlson at 295!  (instead of Kyle Tucker way earlier...or maybe at all)

43:40 More pitchers I'm just not drafting

44:45 Target Domingo Santana at 292

46:20 Avoid Austin Riley for 2020 (at pick 294)

48:00 Corey Dickerson - kinda boring and inconsistent

48:50 Kyle Seager and Willy Adames

51:30 My weird take on Travis Shaw

And we even give some bonus picks (after 300):

57:20 Zack advises me against Kevin Pillar at pick 307

59:40 Target Evan White at 349

1:00:15 Target Matt Magill at 333

1:01:00 Matt Carpenter -- what do you think, Zack?

1:02:05 Target Robinson Cano at 336

1:04:45 What's a good floor player after pick 300?

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome John (@MLBMovingAVG) as we discuss our draft process and talk some ADP.

1:15 It's all about PRICE.  As John says, "You can't force your will on the market."

2:25 Drafting in reverse

7:15 Take the value (when you have players whose skills are close, going far apart)

10:50 Jim Cramer show up briefly

13:30 AJ Puk aka Axl Rose

Then we get into round 17 and 18...

15:35 Adrian Houser (ADP 248) and his pitch-mix changes (sinkers for GBs, curveballs for Ks)

34:10 Shin-Soo Choo (ADP 241) vs Austin Hays (ADP 251) ...unabashed age-ism

42:20 Mark Canha (ADP 257) and his crazy OBP-league value

47:25 Starling Castro (ADP 261) and his late-2019 push

49:30 Aaron Civale (ADP 269) is impossible to barrel, and team context is fantastic

51:45 Chris Archer (ADP 268) is K machine, but not the best for ratios, and team context is pretty meh

57:40 Yandy Diaz (ADP 258) and Renato Nunez (ADP 256) and Joey Votto (ADP 270) -- maybe find a 1B before this

1:06:10 Emilio Pagan (ADP 259), Brandon Kintzler (266), Scott Oberg (260), Wade Davis (265) -- not a good spot for RPs

1:17:20 Sam Hilliard (ADP 267) and the crowded Rockies OF (a team built for platoons)

1:21:55 Trent Grisham (ADP 286) vs all these other OF guys

1:37:30 Cesar Hernandez (ADP 264) at a position that's harder to fill

1:41:35 Positions available here and what to do with them

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Colin back to the podcast!  He's on Twitter at @CWeatherwax13.

We discuss some pitcher risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229121960308690945

2:05 Elite SPs moving up

3:20 Jose Berrios up from ADP 95 (Nov) to 79 (Feb)

5:10 Edwin Diaz up from 140 to 116

8:30 Doolittle and Nick Anderson moving up

Then we turn to some hitter risers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229218664160931840

13:50 Luis Robert up from 106 (Nov) to 77 (Feb)

15:45 Bo Bichette up from 79 to 64

25:10 Brian Anderson up from 261 to 233

And then some hitter fallers https://twitter.com/RyanBHQ/status/1229539025003962372/photo/1

29:05 Anthony Rizzo down from 60 (Nov) to 74 (Feb)

31:20 Yasiel Puig down from 107 to 127

35:10 Willie Calhoun down from 150 to 174

40:30 Jeff McNeil down from 85 to 99

42:25 We talk team construction (especially pitcher strategy in 15-teamers)

And lastly, we cover round 16 ADP -- a great round!

1:00:15 Target Mitch Keller at 227, Caleb Smith at 228, Griffin Canning at 229, and Masahiro Tanaka at 231

1:03:45 Target Sean Murphy at 233 and Dansby Swanson at 234

1:06:50 Colin likes Luis Arraez at 235 if you need AVG

1:07:50 Target Gio Urshela at 239

1:09:20 Target Yadier Molina at 237

...we also like CJ Cron and Brian Anderson

...and are kind of avoiding Francisco Mejia and Dustin May, because look at the other options here!

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Max!  He's @FreezeStats on Twitter.  We talk about:

0:40 Max's blog and research

4:40 Players who earned more HR than they achieved

9:15 We consider what Dodger Stadium could do for Mookie Betts

14:50 "Not all barrels are created equal" (Launch angle and pulling the ball matter a ton)

20:25 Ozuna - example of a pull hitter who "earned" more than he achieved

22:35 Adding in Alex Chamberlain's "Deserved Barrels"

25:00 We move on to a player debate on Oscar Mercado

Then we discuss rd 15...

38:05 Probably avoid Jo Adell at 210

40:20 Target Justin Upton at 220

41:10 Target Avisail Garcia at 224 (and hope he plays every day!)

42:20 Throw back to "Not all barrels are created equal" -- Max's next research project

43:25 Target Rougned Odor at 217

45:25 Target Jose Urquidy

47:45 Avoid Kolten Wong at 216

48:55 Discussion on Narvaez and other catchers in this range

51:00 One last exhortation to avoid risky closers...although Nick Anderson might be a value even without 20+ saves.

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Mike! Twitter: @SPStreamer

First we take a quick look back at earlier rounds and some guys Mike targets and avoids:

1:40 Target Sonny Gray at 98

8:20 Target Carlos Santana at 144

10:35 Avoid Chris Paddack at 51

13:45 Avoid Keston Hiura at 42

Then we get into rounds 13 and 14: 

19:00 Target Kenta Maeda (currently 184)

25:00 Target Hunter Dozier (186)

27:35 Bryan Reynolds / PIT discussion

30:45 Carlos Martinez discussion

33:15 Avoid Lance McCullers (194)

34:40 Luke Weaver discussion

36:15 Avoid Sean Doolittle (185) and Giovanny Gallegos (196) and Nick Anderson any presumptive closer where there is role-risk or committee risk

40:55 Target Luke Voit (200)

44:00 Avoid Didi Gregorius (201)

47:50 Quick thoughts on Joe Mugrove and Brandon Lowe

48:45 Target Christian Walker (202)

51:30 Heaney and Folty discussion

53:50 Senzel and McCutchen discussion

56:35 Target Christian Vazquez (210)

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Big thanks to Matt (@MattWi77iams) for joining me to discuss a couple very full rounds of ADP!

We discuss a few of Matt's #2020PlayerBreakdowns:

4:45 Lourdes Gurriel

11:30 Jeff McNeil

12:50 Projecting growth

15:50 Garrett Hampson

19:30 Max Kepler

Then we look at players going in the 11th and 12th rounds (ADP 151 -  180).

30:15 Target: Corey Seager at ADP 156

33:55 Target: Scott Kingery at 159

39:00 Potential Target: Gavin Lux at 161

41:25 Avoid: Emilio Pagan at 151

42:25 Target: Kyle Hendricks at 154

45:55 Target: Jorge Polanco at 157

47:10 Avoid: Byron Buxton at 164

49:00 Random Trea Turner discussion

52:05 Potential Target: Julio Urias at 165

55:45 Target: Salvador Perez at 168

58:30 Target: Edwin Encarnacion at 170

1:00:30 Avoid: Aristides Aquino at at 173

1:02:40 Target: JD Davis at 180

1:09:40 Avoid: Sean Manaea at 172

1:12:00 Bonus Target: Khris Davis at 181

Thanks for listening!  Find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.

Please welcome Brian (@RuddHQ on Twitter) and enjoy our discussions about the following players!

1:25 Tyler Glasnow at ADP ~68 (4:35 vs Paxton or Woodruff)

6:50 Hector Neris at ~140 (10:25 vs Iglesias, Kimbrel, Jansen, and Diaz)

13:50 Yasiel Puig at ~115 (19:15 vs Benintendi, Mercado, and Luis Robert)

25:25 Rhys Hoskins at ~116 (33:05 vs Carlos Santana or Edwin Encarnacion)

39:10 Adalberto Mondesi at ~35 (50:30 vs Villar or Robles) 57:35 What do you do later with SBs if you take Mondesi?

1:00:25 Danny Santana at ~125 (1:05:30 vs Kingery or Goodrum)

Thanks for listening!  I'd love it if you write a review on iTunes, and please find me on Twitter @commonsensefbb.