Jon, Doug, Dylan and Wei join the chat to talk export controls and GPT5. Books Doug and I like: Jonathan Spence's Search for Modern China Gavan Daws' Shoal of Time Joseph Heinrich's The Secret of Our Success Outtro Music: Europhia II from kkluv's new album https://open.spotify.com/track/61kEkWr0gQrcDwd6uIbxQ1?si=190526b87e96487c Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

So we're selling AI chips to China now. Chris Miller, author of Chip Wars, and Lennart Heim at RAND join to discuss: What are the tradeoffs involved in selling Why China is talking like they don't even want the H20s Why selling HBM and semiconductor manufacturing equipment might be an even bigger deal than Nvidia chips Check out the Horizon Fellowship to work in DC on emerging tech policy issues like AI chip export controls! https://horizonpublicservice.org/applications-open-for-2026-horizon-fellowship-cohort/ Outtro Music: It's a Shame, The Spinners, 1970 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uRQQudHLi0A&ab_channel=TheSpinners-Topic Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

We talk AGI nihilism in the Taiwan fight, combined arms breach, and Palmer Luckey's Taiwan speech. Part 2 explores Detachment 201, the evolution of the Office of Strategic Capital, and the MP Materials rare earths deal. Guests include: Tony Stark, Army vet who writes https://www.breakingbeijing.com/ Justin McIntosh, former Green beret who writes https://justinmc.substack.com/ Eric Robinson, lawyer and Army vet who spent time in OSC, JSOC and the NCTC Outtro Music: Last Chance, Mary Cox https://open.spotify.com/track/3LAOSqy3DoiA1OiPxC9yMe?si=da00b16696f042f8 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

To the Success of Our Hopeless Cause: The Many Lives of the Soviet Dissident Movement — the Pulitzer Prize-winning book by Professor Ben Nathans — is perhaps the sharpest, richest, and funniest account of the Soviet dissident movement ever written. Today, we’ll interview Nathans alongside the legendary Ian Johnson, whose recent book Sparks explores the Chinese dissident ecosystem. We discuss… The central enigma of the Soviet dissident movement — their boldness in the face of hopeless odds, How cybernetics, Wittgenstein, and one absent-minded professor shaped the intellectual backbone of post-Stalinist dissent, Why the Soviet Union was such fertile ground for dark humor, and why humor played a vital role for Soviet resistance movements, How the architect of Stalin's show trials laid the groundwork for, ironically, a more professional legal system known as “socialist legality,” Similarities and differences between post-Stalinist and post-Maoist systems in dealing with opposition, Plus: Why Brezhnev read The Baltimore Sun, how onion-skin paper became a tool of rebellion, and why China’s leaders study the Soviet collapse more seriously than anyone else. Today's episode is sponsored by Alaya Tea, cofounded by ChinaTalk listener Smita Satiani. Alaya Tea ships Indian teas straight from the source, and their products are 100% plastic-free. My favorite is their Assam black tea, which I've been using to make a fantastic milk tea. Go to ⁠alayatea.co⁠ and use the code CHINATALKTEA for free shipping. Outro music: Владимир Высоцкий - Охота на волков (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

What does it take to make a living betting on politics? Can prediction markets offer insights about the future that other analyses cannot? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Domer, a professional prediction markets bettor. Domer is the number one trader by volume on Polymarket, and he’s been trading since 2007. He initially entered this world through poker, but now makes bets about who will win foreign elections, whether wars will start, and whether bills will become law. We discuss… Why some issues — like Romanian elections, the NYC mayoral race, or Zelenskyy’s outfit choices — can attract hundreds of millions of dollars in trading volume, Systematic biases in prediction markets, including why they overestimate the likelihood of a Taiwan contingency, What happens to prediction markets in the absence of insider trading regulations, Why prediction markets are still a solo endeavor, and what a profit-maximizing team of traders would look like, Bonus: How betting markets backfired on Romanian nationalists, what AI can teach you about betting, and other insights on winning from one of Domer’s contemporaries. Outro music: Bob Dylan - Rambling, Gambling Willie (YouTube Link) This episode is brought to you by ElevenLabs. I’ve been on the hunt for years for the perfect reader app that puts AI audio at the center of its design. Over the past few months, the ElevenReader app has earned a spot on my iPhone's home screen and now gets about 30 minutes of use every day. I plow through articles using Eleven Reader’s beautiful voices and love having Richard Feynman read me AI news stories — as well as, you know, Matilda every once in a while, too. I’m also a power user of its bookmark feature, which the ElevenReader team added after I requested it on Twitter. ChinaTalk’s newsletter content even comes preloaded in the feed. Check out the ElevenReader app if you’re looking for the best mobile reader on the market. Oh, and by the way — if you ever need to transcribe anything, ElevenLabs’  Scribe model has transformed our workflow for getting transcripts out to you on the newsletter. It’s crossed the threshold from “95% good” to “99.5% amazing,” saving our production team hours every week. Check it out the next time you need something transcribed. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Tobias Harris of the Observing Japan substack https://observingjapan.substack.com/ joins to discuss the latest Japanese election, how we got here, and what happens next. How Abe's assassination led to the LDP's three years of struggles What the latest results in the upper house election tell us about domestic Japanese politics What's the deal with big winners like Kōmeitō and the Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) How domestic dynamics tie into US-Japan and China-Japan relations Outtro Music: The Communist Party's 2025 Gender song https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V59qOPTe62g&ab_channel=%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E5%85%B1%E7%94%A3%E5%85%9A Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

This is part two of our series with Joseph Torigian, author of the definitive biography of Xi Zhongxun. This episode traces the inner world of a man navigating power politics, exile, and reform, and the legacy he left his son, Xi Jinping. Against the backdrop of the Great Leap Forward, the Sino-Soviet split, the Cultural Revolution, and reform and opening up, we discuss… The moral dilemmas of a mid-level party cadre, What it’s like to be purged, and why the party prescribes self-criticism as therapy, “Frenemies” in the CCP, Deng Xiaoping’s autocratic side, and the unsung heros of the reform period, How Xi Zhongxun instilled party loyalty and other values in his son, Xi Zhongxun’s return from exile and his complicated relationship with reform, How Chinese leaders think about redemption, guilt, and survival, And a bonus: Why the PRC-produced biopic of Xi Zhongxun is so disappointing — and why his life deserves the Star Wars treatment. Outro music: Teresa Teng - 小城故事 (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Why has Japan fallen out of Trump’s good graces? Will Japan close a deal with the US before tariffs take effect? And how will the upcoming Japanese election impact relations? To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Professor Tomohiko Taniguchi, a longtime observer of US-Japan relations and former advisor to the late Shinzo Abe. We discuss… Why 1970s trade competition is still impacting US-Japan relations today, and how Japan could create “Wow factor” when dealing with Donald Trump, How Shinzo Abe used golf, dinner parties, and history lessons to cultivate a close personal friendship with Trump, The roots of Japanese resolve in dealing with PRC aggression, The emergence of Russian disinformation surrounding the Japanese election, The political economy of the Japanese Self-Defence Force, and how Abe managed the controversy surrounding his reinterpretation of Article 9. Co-hosting today is Charles Litchfield of the Atlantic Council. Thanks to the US-Japan Foundation for sponsoring this episode. Outro music: Shinji Tanimura - Left Alone (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Joseph Torigian’s The Party’s Interest Comes First: The Life of Xi Zhongxun, Father of Xi Jinping is a monumental scholarly achievement — easily a contender for one of the best China books of the decade. Joseph’s goal, in his own words, was to “shine as much light into the darkness of the past as possible” to understand the nature of authoritarian politics, and he succeeds beyond my wildest expectations. This biography gives me a feel for Chinese politics that I honestly thought I’d never have. It does an incredible job of digging deep to shed light on some of the most consequential moments in CCP history, as well as conveying what it was like to live as a senior official under Mao and Deng. Reading it was a powerful experience at both an intellectual and human level. We get memorable vignettes, like 15-year-old Xi Zhongxun attempting to assassinate a teacher, or General Peng Dehuai using his shoe to silence Xi Zhongxun’s snoring in their shared bunk. In this interview, we discuss: What we can learn about authoritarianism, the CCP, and China’s future from studying Xi’s father, Torigian’s methodology for uncovering hidden Party history, How the Party became an existential source of meaning, and how it weaponized suffering to paradoxically deepen political loyalty, The arc of Xi Zhongxun’s life — from a young revolutionary to key advocate of reform — and his role during Tiananmen, The interplay of family, love, and career under the all-encompassing shadow of the Party, The role of “Surrogate fathers” and patronage in navigating political ascent, How literature shaped China’s early revolutionaries, and even impacted the Party as we know it today. Co-hosting today is Jon Sine, former ChinaTalk intern. Outro music: The Temptations - Papa Was A Rolling Stone (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nathan Lambert (https://www.interconnects.ai/), Jasmine Sun (https://jasmi.news/) and I kick off a new series 'Overfit' to talk how AI is shaping the future of media, why Nathan just needs $100m to take on Deepseek, and how to make money in this creator economy. Outtro music: Todd Terje, Preben Goes to Acapulco https://open.spotify.com/track/70jWHwvymR4x1PUXXrUD1S Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Jake Newby, author of the China music substack Concrete Avalanche, presents his official playlist of China’s best new music. It includes ADHD-inspired hip hop, experimental ambient music from rural China, and Shanghai cold wave, finishing off with a “mind-blowing” hyperpop track. Tracklist: 00:00 ‘Rhyme’ – Rubey Hu 01:02 ‘The Last of the Mohicans’ – SMZB 生命之饼 04:46 ‘秋茄子之味’ – 红发少年杀人事件 09:04 ‘The Wanderer of Renfengli 仁丰里的闲逛者‘ – DaYe 大叶 12:08 ‘back to the pond 1’ – Jian Cui 15:57 ‘Chapter II’ (excerpt) – Chen Mulian et al for xuán yīn 21:13 ‘月光爱人 De Luna Amour’ – 黑木 Heimu 27:27 ‘Ⱪorⱪetteng ⱪobeze / The Kobyz of Korkut 霍尔赫特的库布孜‘ (excerpt) – Mamer 马木尔 35:38 ‘སྒྲོལ་མའི་བསྟོད་པ་། Praise to Tara 度母赞’ – Kalzang Samdrub 37:08 ‘我不知不觉不伦不类’ – 小老虎 J-Fever 39:56 ‘1911 4th Mov. (live) 一九一一 第四回’ (excerpt) – Zhaoze 沼泽 46:55 ‘本该走神的(Should've Been Lost)‘ – 张醒婵 Nono 49:28 ‘失乐园’ – DJ小女孩 DJ Gurl Some of these tracks are available on YouTube! We've aggregated those links on the ChinaTalk Substack. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

How does Russia prevent uprisings, and what can other authoritarians learn from Moscow’s methods of coup control? For the second anniversary of the Wagner uprising, ChinaTalk interviewed London-based historian Kamil Galeev, who was also a classmate of Jordan’s at Peking University. We discuss… Why the Wagner Group rebelled in 2023, and why the coup attempt ultimately failed, How Wagner shifted the Kremlin’s assessment of internal political challengers, Similarities between post-Soviet doomerism and the American right, Historical examples of foreign policy inflienced by a victimhood mentality, Barriers to Chinese hegemony. Outro Music: Султан Лагучев - Любовь беда (YouTube Link) Today’s post is brought to you by 80,000 Hours, a nonprofit that helps people find fulfilling careers that do good. 80,000 Hours — named for the average length of a career — has been doing in-depth research on AI issues for over a decade, producing reports on how the US and China can manage existential risk, scenarios for potential AI catastrophe, and examining the concrete steps you can take to help ensure AI development goes well. Their research suggests that working to reduce risks from advanced AI could be one of the most impactful ways to make a positive difference in the world. They provide free resources to help you contribute, including: Detailed career reviews for paths like AI safety technical research, AI governance, information security, and AI hardware, A job board with hundreds of high-impact opportunities, A podcast featuring deep conversations with experts like Carl Shulman, Ajeya Cotra, and Tom Davidson, Free, one-on-one career advising to help you find your best fit. To learn more and access their research-backed career guides, visit 80000hours.org/ChinaTalk. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Is America cooked? We check in on what clarity the past three months have given us on the long term dynamic between the US and China. Guests include: Peter Harrell, former Biden official who hosts the Security Economics podcast (https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/security-economics/id1794022711) Matt Klein of the https://theovershoot.co/ substack Kevin Xu of the https://interconnect.substack.com/ subsctack Outtro music: Emitt Rhodes, Textile Factory, 1970 https://open.spotify.com/track/1JO2jo0Cyg75mmCFlSW2bB?si=1706c809e80b4bd4 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Also, somehow, the Third Temple, twink human sacrifice for the AI labs, and the SemiAnalysis Desi Waifu 3000. Outtro Music (sounded like a let's get dylan a girlfriend prayer to me?) Finding Her, Kushagra, Bharath, Saaheal. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PZtSnQBsBW0 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Patrick McGee is the author of Apple in China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company. Our discussion led us through a detailed history of Apple’s relationship with China, where iPhone manufacturing became a project of nation-building. Cohosting today is Kyle Chan of the High Capacity Substack. Today, our conversation covers: Why Apple moved production to China in the 1990s, and why it struggles to leave, How Apple’s obsession with perfection catalyzed China’s industrial upgrading, The political side of production in China, including how Apple’s relationship with the Chinese authorities has evolved over time, The rise of Foxconn and other partners in Apple’s network, Fun anecdotes about Apple’s management style, including the “Divorce Avoidance Program.” Read ChinaTalk's article China's AR glasses market here. Outro music: Apple Blossom — The White Stripes (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Eva Dou is the author of The House of Huawei, an excellent book covering the personal, economic, and geopolitical arc of Huawei, China’s most important company. We discuss… The life of Huawei’s founder, Ren Zhengfei, who rose from Cultural Revolution disgrace to become one of China’s richest businessmen, How Ren built Huawei, and what makes their corporate culture unique, Huawei’s strategic entry into developing and high-risk markets like Libya, Iraq, and Iran, and whether the controversial deal with the UK is a threat to national security, How Huawei outcompeted Chinese state-owned telecom companies and eventually achieved national champion status, How Ren’s personal interest in foreign art, music, and architecture advances Huawei’s market share. Co-hosting today is Kyle Chan, a postdoc at Princeton and author of the High Capacity Substack. Outro music: Back Fire - Annabel Yao (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Renaissance Philanthropy — in my opinion, the most exciting S&T philanthropic venture in the US — is getting a one-year check-in. Kumar Garg first appeared on the show right before I went on paternity leave, and now we’re back for round two. Before founding Renaissance Philanthropy, Kumar worked in the Obama Office of Science and Technology Policy and spent time at Schmidt Futures. We discuss… How Renaissance ⁠catalyzed⁠ over $200 million in philanthropic funding in its first year, The goals of the organization and how it has responded to Trump’s S&T funding cuts, What sets Renaissance apart from traditional philanthropic organizations, and lessons for China-focused research foundations, AI applications in education, from tutoring to dyslexia screening, Donor psychology, “portfolio regret,” and how to build trust within a philanthropic network. Thanks to ElevenLabs for sponsoring this episode. Check out the ElevenReader text-to-speech app here. Outro music: Mercy, Mercy, Mercy - Cannonball Adderley (YouTube Link) Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Josh Wolfe of Lux Capital joins ChinaTalk to talk: Elon, Trump and the tech right The future of the R&D base and importance of immigrants Why short videos aren't terrible after all? Philanthropy and books Read the social history of the machine gun! Outtro Music: Youba by The Sway Machinery and Khaira Arby https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cYNUm4UfoAs Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Two weeks in a row what has gotten into us. Jordan tries to save the NSF and immigrant visas with an AI researcher letter Our quarterly AI mandate of heaven update (there's been alot of movement!) Dylan makes bad slop jokes The Ezra Klein/Dylan Patel beef begins We recommend the amazing book Mitsui: Three Centuries of Japanese Business Outtro music: באמפרים” (pronounced Bam-pe-rim, roughly “Bumpers”) by the Israeli hip-hop duo Ness & Stilla, 2024 https://open.spotify.com/track/3FihyZ7YA7vrNiSUfWww10?si=9817a9122faf4b08 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dylan bonds with Nvidia's CFO and I try to keep the GPUs in actual democracies. Outtro Music: FaceTime, Karencici, 2018. https://open.spotify.com/track/2PNDZp0ultOJrQL4AVENPO?si=46cdf72cdffb40a3 Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices