In the biggest China tariff development this week, Chinese shipping to the US has collapsed by more than 90 percent since January, according to new data from maritime analytics firm Pole Star Global. This comes as President Donald Trump has threatened an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese goods, which would bring the total effective tariff rate to roughly 130 percent. Trump is presenting this move as a way to protect American workers and pressure Beijing into new trade negotiations, but economists warn it could severely disrupt global supply chains and trigger widespread inflation for US companies dependent on Chinese imports.
As reported by CNN and AP News, the trade tensions have extended to the maritime sector, where new reciprocal port fees are now being enforced by both countries. Chinese ships entering US ports must pay fees based on gross tonnage, while Beijing has responded with its own tariff of 400 yuan per ton, set to rise to 1,120 yuan by 2028. Pole Star Global’s chief data officer, Saleem Khan, confirms that the number of Chinese vessels entering the US dropped precipitously—from 1,678 in January to just 156 so far in October. The immediate result is logistical chaos, with shipping companies rerouting vessels and implementing surcharges, leading to spikes in freight costs.
The shockwaves are already hitting US agriculture. Trump recently called China’s cutbacks in soybean purchases an “economically hostile act” against American farmers on Truth Social, threatening to terminate trade with China involving cooking oil and other agricultural goods as retaliation. China, the world’s largest soybean importer, stopped buying American soybeans this spring in direct response to Trump’s tariff threats. This move deals a major blow to US soybean farmers, who have historically relied on China for up to 31 percent of their crop sales in peak years, according to the American Soybean Association. Experts quoted by Fox Business say the loss of the Chinese market could force a structural pivot, with South American producers in Brazil and Argentina likely to step in to fulfill China’s demand.
Meanwhile, China’s Commerce Ministry has labeled the latest US tariff warnings as “wilful and harmful,” promising “necessary countermeasures” if Washington moves ahead with the 100 percent tariff plan. Analysts suggest the impact of these combined tariffs and port fees could amount to $20–23 billion annually if trade volumes ever recover—though current shipping figures indicate that US-China trade has ground nearly to a halt.
The real-time data from Pole Star Global highlights that trade routes can change even faster than government policy, and restarting maritime flows after such a collapse would be a considerable challenge. If these policies persist, listeners can expect the world’s busiest trade corridor to experience its lowest activity in decades, signaling a deeper, possibly permanent decoupling between US and China trade.
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