In this Season 3 opener of The Carbon Trading Chronicles, we’re joined by Eric Stein, Lead Trading Meteorologist at E.ON, to dive into the powerful role weather plays in shaping the EU ETS. From shifting weather patterns to the rise of advanced forecasting technologies, climate conditions are becoming an increasingly important driver of carbon prices. We explore the direct influence of weather renewable generation, the indirect effects via gas market, and how funds consider weather as driver for carbon price Tune in and find out if forecasting tomorrow’s weather could mean forecasting tomorrow’s carbon price.
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In this episode of Carbon Trading Chronicles, we sit down with carbon trader Oliver Triton to unpack the ripple effects of rising tariffs on EU and UK carbon markets. Triton offers sharp insights into how market participants are recalibrating strategies in the face of protectionist trends and regulatory uncertainty.
We also dive into the potential of carbon trading at €60 or €80. Which outcome is likely more viable? And what other price horizons are more likely to be reached by the end of 2025?
Tune in as we connect the dots between macroeconomic stressors and the EU ETS in a rapidly evolving landscape.
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In this episode of Carbon Trading Chronicles, we dive deep into the intricate relationship between the gas and carbon markets, featuring insights from Seb Kennedy, energy journalist and creator of the newsletter Energy Flux. Seb and Riham offer a unique perspective on how geopolitical tensions have amplified risk premiums in gas markets and, in turn, influenced European carbon pricing. They also explore the growing correlation between gas prices and carbon markets, the opaque nature of hedge fund activity, and the strategic maneuvering of gas storage operators seeking to balance regulatory mandates with market realities.
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Welcome to the final episode of 2024! This year has been a rollercoaster marked by unexpected twists and steady patterns in EU ETS trading. In this special year-end review, Vertis analysts and Alessandro Vitelli, aka The Carbon Reporter, dissect the pivotal moments that shaped the EU ETS market. Together, they reflect on a year that left market participants caught between exasperation, anxiety, and cautious hope. Stay tuned for 2025!
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In this episode of Carbon Trading Chronicles, we explore the EU ETS and UK ETS at a pivotal moment, where market participants are divided over the future direction of prices. With some analysts predicting a drop to €50, and others expecting a long-term bullish outlook, we examine whether these forecasts are grounded in reality or part of a carbon market fairytale. Are we witnessing a fundamental shift, or will the market stabilize? Tune in for latest insights from Vertis analysts.
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Welcome to Season 2 of Carbon Trading Chronicles!
In our first episode, we unpack what’s been happening over the summer, from market volatility to geopolitics, and analyse what these developments mean for the compliance period ending this September.
We also get exclusive expert views on the auction process, exploring the intricacies, challenges, and practicalities that shaped the evolution of carbon trading. We do not stop there as we also look ahead to 2025, discuss potential trends, policy changes, and market expectations that could reshape the landscape.
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In this final episode of our first season, carbon experts analyse how trading practices have changed, which new players are reshaping the market and what current trends are influencing trading activity. They will compare long-term and short-term trading strategies, explore the influence of politics, speculators and the weather on market decisions, and examine the opportunities arising from the competition between algorithms and human traders.
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What is driving the recent price increases despite the prevailing bearish predictions of analysts? Have fundamentals shifted or are we experiencing the mirage of the year? In this episode, carbon analysts and traders make hypotheses regarding 2024 price developments by examining industrials, utilities, banks and hedge funds' behaviour.
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Three months after the official inclusion of the shipping sector within the EU ETS, this episode aims to take stock of the lessons learned so far and explore the pressing questions of shipowners. Our experts analyse shipping companies’ EUAs buying behaviours, the impact of the inclusion of this new sector for the whole EU ETS framework as well as current strategies available for compliance… and whether there's a way out of the system.
Glossary:
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Can biomethane truly mitigate compliance costs? In this episode, we explore the unknown of biomass and its potential to alleviate compliance costs for EU ETS compliant entities. From understanding its diverse grades to its trading dynamics, we dissect the bullish and bearish trends impacting its market trajectory, and its role in the energy mix.
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As we move closer to the European elections in June, host Stefan Feuchtinger is joined by journalist Frédéric Simon from Carbon Pulse and trader Brieuc de Thier from Vertis. Together, they unpack the record-low EUA prices, the recently unveiled EU 2040 climate target, and the spectre of the European elections looming over carbon markets. Delving deep into the political landscape that shapes the EU ETS market, they analyse how the latest official communication and the imminent elections could disrupt the status quo, potentially diluting the Green Deal. Against the backdrop of declining carbon prices and emissions levels, they explore the ripple effects for compliant entities and the impact on European industrial development.
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In this episode, Vertis Environmental Finance experts dive into the imminent evolution of the EU ETS, where a sweeping expansion is set to reshape the carbon trading landscape. We explore the critical sectors included, such as road transport, buildings, and EU ETS 1 industries below the 20MW threshold, and discuss the upcoming milestones to be expected by industrials across Europe, from 2027 onwards.
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2040 seems like a way too broad time horizon, but as companies start to think about their long-term investment strategies is worth to start thinking: how will the EU ETS look like 17 years from now?
In the absence of reforms, the actual system would force the decarbonization of EU ETS covered industries by as soon as 2039-2040. Is this a likely scenario? It doesn’t seem feasible for industries like aviation or cement production.
With the help of Julia Michalak, EU policy Director at IETA we will try to disentangle the potential changes that could be implemented in the system in order to meet the decarbonization goals while maintaining competitiveness in the EU industry.
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In this second episode, we delve into the complex world of gas and its profound implications on the European carbon markets. The hosts and our guests explore the impact TTF has on the power and industrial demand for carbon allowances and the EUA price. We will discover how the sensitivity of the global gas market correlates and de-correlates with the EUA price and the key role of this critical energy source in the EU's decarbonization goals.
Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.
Gergely Szabo - Principal Investment Advisor at Vertis Environmental Finance.
Matteo Mazzoni - Director of Energy Analytics at ICIS.
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In conversation with colleagues Riham Wahba and Guillaume Verger, Stefan Feuchtinger, Head of research and analysis at Vertis Environmental Finance talks about the evolution of EU compliance carbon markets over the last 6 months and how EU ETS will evolve over the second part of 2023. They conclude with an outlook to 2030.
Stefan Feuchtinger - Head of R&A at Vertis Environmental Finance.
Riham Wahba - Senior Market Analyst at Vertis Environmental Finance.
Guillaume Verger - Senior EU ETS Manager at Vertis Environmental Finance.
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