Right now, the tariff and trade landscape between the United States and Canada is exceptionally fluid, with major consequences for businesses, workers, and the broader economy. For listeners tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker, here’s the latest on what’s happening at the border and why it matters.
The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, remains the keystone of North American trade. However, just months away from its scheduled six-year review in 2026, there’s growing anxiety among manufacturers and exporters. According to Manufacturing Dive, the U.S. recently imposed a 35% tariff on imports from Canada that don’t comply with USMCA rules, while qualifying goods can still cross tariff-free. This has triggered a wave of reassessment—companies are urgently reviewing their supply chains and product content to see if they still qualify for duty-free access. Some firms with compliant operations are finding a new competitive edge, while others face steep new costs.
But it’s not just about USMCA. President Trump’s administration has also levied hefty tariffs—up to 25%—on key Canadian exports: steel, aluminum, copper products, motor vehicles, parts, and lumber, according to the National Post. These tariffs, combined with a broader global downturn, have pushed the Canadian economy toward recession. Export Development Canada forecasts economic growth at just 0.9% this year, lagging behind the U.S. and many developed nations. The National Post notes that rising unemployment and reduced business investment in machinery and equipment are direct results of these trade tensions. The jobless rate hit 7.1% in September, the highest in over four years.
Meanwhile, export growth earlier in the year was largely due to companies stockpiling goods before the new tariffs took effect, a temporary boost that’s now faded. The pain is expected to linger, with structural challenges like slowing population growth, low productivity, and high consumer debt compounding the tariff impact.
What does this mean on the ground? Most manufacturers are frozen in place. Industry consultants report that businesses are making far fewer supply chain moves today than during the initial U.S.-China tariff shocks. With the USMCA review looming, companies are reluctant to commit to new investments or relocations until the rules are clearer. The volatility in U.S.-Canada relations has made Mexico a more attractive option for some, but even there, uncertainty remains. According to Trade Force Multiplier, the only certainty is change—most experts advise companies to diversify their options, because nobody knows where U.S. trade policy will land next.
Looking ahead, the situation remains unpredictable. If USMCA’s rules of origin become even stricter during next year’s review, more Canadian exports could face tariffs. And with the U.S. presidential election on the horizon, the risk of further trade shocks looms large.
Thank you for tuning in to Canada Tariff News and Tracker. For the latest updates on tariffs and cross-border trade, subscribe to our podcast. This has been a quiet please production. For more, check out quiet please dot ai.
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