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Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
After 138 episodes and almost four years to the day since we recorded our first one, Will and Richard have decided to take a short break.
We do plan to continue Bubble Trouble, and we are not short of bubbles that are causing trouble, but we want to take time to recharge and reflect on how we can make the show better than ever.
We hope you’ll look back through the archives as there are so many episodes that are every bit as relevant today as they were in 2021 when we started. We’ll have word soon on when you can expect new episodes, but thanks so much for listening.
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Who doesn’t like to talk about Twitter and Tweets? Word of mouth (or tweet) is the secret sauce of its success. But has it ever been successful? And if it hasn’t, how do you gauge the impact of Elon Musk’s shock therapy over the past two years? Journalist Kurt Wagner joins to share his deep dive profile of the tortured history of Twitter. [Repeat from May, 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
This episode of Bubble Trouble features a conversation with Bloomberg journalist Kurt Wagner, author of 'Battle for the Bird,' a book about Twitter's tumultuous history and evolution, particularly under Elon Musk's ownership. The hosts, independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, delve into Twitter’s origins, its struggle to monetize effectively compared to giants like Meta, and the significant influence of Jack Dorsey’s leadership style on the platform's direction. They discuss the platform's missed opportunities, such as Vine and Periscope, and how it became a place where 'good ideas go to die.' The discussion also covers Musk's takeover, his attempts to transform Twitter into 'X', and the challenges of balancing free speech with the need for content moderation and advertiser appeal. Wagner shares insights on the potential future of 'X', the impact of Musk's leadership on the platform's advertising and user engagement, and the skepticism surrounding the 'everything app' concept Musk envisions.
00:00 Introduction
01:02 Part One
01:02 Deep Dive with Kurt Wagner: The Story of Twitter
02:36 The Origins and Evolution of Twitter
06:20 Twitter's User Base and Business Model Explored
09:10 The Challenges of Twitter's Business Model
14:10 Board Dynamics and Google's Influence on Twitter
18:03 Extravagant Spending and Corporate Culture at Twitter
21:13 Reflections on Twitter's Stock Performance
23:47 The Almost Disney-Twitter Deal: A Glimpse into Corporate Negotiations
24:29 Twitter's Quest for a Savior and Its Struggle for Independence
25:53 Missed Opportunities: The Story of Vine and Periscope
27:27 Part Two
27:27 Transition to Part Two: The Elon Musk Era at Twitter
27:49 The Challenges of Rebranding Twitter to X and Musk's Controversial Leadership
28:32 The Impact of Elon Musk's Actions on Twitter's Ad Revenue and Brand Safety
36:52 The Struggle with Bots and Spam: Has It Gotten Worse?
40:06 Free Speech Under Musk: A Double-Edged Sword
44:26 The Everything App Ambition: A Skeptical View
46:33 Closing Thoughts and Acknowledgements
47:01 Credits
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This week let’s settle back to our sofas, grab our remote controls and work out what to watch with Doug Shapiro, among the most prominent voices in the world of television and its tech disrupters. His clear and concise work, all available to watch and read on his website is the go to for thousands.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts delve into the intricacies of media disruption with Doug Shapiro, a prominent voice in TV, economics, and tech. Celebrating over a century of their show's success, they explore topics such as the supply and demand curve changes, the potential of AI in content creation, and the future of media companies amidst technological advancements. Shapiro offers insights into the tectonic shifts affecting the industry, from the rise of new media over traditional formats to the economic implications of infinite content in a world of fixed demand. The discussion also touches on intellectual property, the ethics surrounding AI, and the challenges faced by incumbents in adapting to rapid innovation.
00:00 Introduction
00:42 Part One
00:49 Guest Introduction: Doug Shapiro
01:12 Doug Shapiro's Career Journey
02:12 The Evolution of Media Consumption
03:50 Supply and Demand in Media
07:19 Generative AI and Content Creation
10:32 The Future of Media Distribution
23:09 The Creator Economy and Power Laws
27:13 Part Two
27:30 Hollywood vs. Big Tech
30:00 AI's Impact on Hollywood: A Double-Edged Sword
30:44 Disruption in the Entertainment Industry
31:23 The Future of High-End Content
32:06 AI as a Productivity Tool in Hollywood
32:46 The Rise of AI-Enabled Studios
33:43 Introducing Sora: The Future of Content Creation
35:14 The Turing Test in Video Content
38:22 Local Content vs. Global Tent Poles
40:21 The Copyright Conundrum
41:56 The Dirty Deal: Media and Tech Collusion
48:06 The Fair Use Debate
50:59 Disruption is Hard: Lessons from Netflix
54:22 Concluding Thoughts and Future Outlook
55:42 Credits
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In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page return with guest Dror Poleg, an expert in real estate and economic history. They discuss the volatility expected in 2025, reflections on the work-from-home trend, and the dynamic interplay between geopolitics and everyday life. With insights into real estate bubbles, economic predictions, and the evolving nature of productivity, Dror offers a deep dive into how technological advancements shape our physical and economic world. The conversation also covers topics such as the challenges in the housing market, defense spending, AI investment, and the impact of geopolitical shifts. This episode is packed with thought-provoking discussions and forecasts for the near future.
00:00
00:00 Introduction
00:52 Part One
01:00 Guest Introduction
03:34 Real Estate Market Insights
06:15 Challenges in Urban Development
11:46 Rethinking Productivity and Inequality
19:38 Future of Work and Education
24:06 The Flaw of GDP and Productivity
24:23 Discussing the Book: Mismatch Between Economy and World
26:31 Part Two
26:49 Encouraging Success and Taxing It
28:47 Innovation and Public Investment Funds
33:33 US Government and Defense Spending
43:28 AI and the Future of Compute
46:48 Closing Thoughts and Upcoming Book
49:54 Credits
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This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? [Repeat from February, 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks
In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.
00:01 Introduction
00:48 Part One
00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory
03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?
07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets
22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech
23:13 Part Two
23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech
38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts
41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments
41:54 Credits
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We have had over 30 episodes of Bubble Trouble this year, and had some real highlights along with a mad world we are living in. And now after a predictions show with Benedict Evans last week, we move on to our own look back to highlight the must-listen shows of 2024 and turn to the top troubles with bubbles to watch out for in 2025.
Will’s favorite shows of 2024:
Richards favorite shows of 2024:
Will’s folder of research reports: HERE
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble Year-End Review: Top Episodes and Predictions for 2025
00:00 Introduction and Year in Review
00:33 Part One
00:41 Predictions and Highlights of 2024
01:16 Memorable Moments and Listener Feedback
02:44 Bronze Medal: Bill Raduchel’s Insight
04:58 Silver Medal: Duncan Maven and Credit Suisse
07:43 Gold Medal: Law Without Lawyers
11:09 Richard's Oscar Categories
13:48 Social Impact: Fergal Sharky on Water Management
17:36 Market Bubbles and Fiscal Policies
22:13 Closing Thoughts and Part Two Teaser
22:38 Part Two
22:59 Predictions and Skepticism
23:32 AI and the Rationalization of Apps
24:47 Winners and Losers in the AI Era
25:57 The Future of Review Platforms
28:28 Emerging Companies to Watch
35:13 Market Trends and Volatility
40:36 The Crisis in Journalism
44:40 AI Hype vs. Reality
45:57 Closing Thoughts and Reflections
47:14 Credits
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Back by popular demand, returning guest Benedict Evans to help us work out where we’ll be a year from now. This is our first predictions show, and Benedict has been brave enough to lead from the front with his latest presentation AI Eats the World. Will it? And if it does, what sort of indigestion will it bring? We double down on what the next twelve months will bring given the avalanche of “events-dear-boy-events” we’ve witnessed in the last twelve.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Join hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page in one of the final episodes of 2024 as they team up with independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist and author Will Page, alongside returning guest Benedict Evans. In this prediction-packed episode, the trio dives into the year-long buzz around AI. They dissect the concept of 'AI Eats the World' — exploring if AI truly has the transformative power it's touted to have and what potential pitfalls could arise. From decoding AI trends to the proliferation of machine learning across industries, this episode provides a candid discussion on the future of AI, its impacts, and the upcoming challenges. Plus, they explore legal implications, the role of consultancy giants like Accenture in the AI wave, and the future landscape of professions impacted by AI innovations. Don't miss this insightful deep dive into what technology and AI advancements might hold for the year ahead.
00:00 Introduction and Show Setup
00:46 Part One
01:19 Understanding AI and Machine Learning
03:46 AI's Practical Applications
07:06 AI in the Legal Profession
15:58 Jevons Paradox and AI's Future Impact
21:01 Part Two
25:01 Creative Brainstorming with AI
25:11 The Value of Unique Perspectives
25:53 Skepticism Towards Big Consultancies
26:55 Accenture's Role in AI
28:33 Generative AI in Business
31:37 The Democratization of AI
34:02 AI's Impact on Various Industries
41:19 Future of AI in Media and Entertainment
45:51 Closing Thoughts and Reflections
46:38 Credits
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When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.
00:00 Introduction
01:18 Part One
02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked
06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior
10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks
16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share
18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans
23:09 Part Two
24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact
25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges
26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers
27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding
28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization
34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets
40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions
42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading
46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts
46:53 Credits
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In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:35 Part One
01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright
02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright
07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption
17:08 The Vinyl Revival
19:31 Part Two
19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright
22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton
22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming
23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade
24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance
26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success
28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene
30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists
33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming
37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships
40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright
41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes
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Today we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger Madeline
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments.
00:00 Introduction
00:48 Part One
02:16 Transforming King's Cross
03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development
05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations
08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects
15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID
20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development
24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges
25:34 Part Two
26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK
29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case
32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two
34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed
36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development
42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development
52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections
53:17 Credits
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On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.
00:00 Introduction
01:00 Part One
01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven
02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse
03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime
05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse
09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking
15:21 The Mozambique Scandal
19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse
23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal
23:47 Part Two
23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse
24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse
26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals
28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis
32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking
40:05 Reception of the Book
42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts
46:37 Credits
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This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy… [Repeat from March, 2024.]
Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.
00:00 Introduction
00:46 Part One
00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights
01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity
02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue
04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society
07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector
11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance
13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency
16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge
22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen
23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation
23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth
25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands
26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag
27:22 Part Two
27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity
28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity
32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities
36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality
43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark
47:28 Credits
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This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan
01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights
02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply
04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation
06:13 AI and the Future of Music
12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media
13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators
19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores
25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry
27:33 Part Two
28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype
30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies
30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View
31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies
33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom
35:15 Bifurcation in the Market
43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption
44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry
46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions
52:00 Credits
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Podcasts are having another moment: Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:59 Part One
02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts
05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization
09:09 The Future of Media Consumption
22:11 Part Two
22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions
37:46 AI and Data Utilization
46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell
48:33 Credits
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Repeat from November, 2023.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.
00:00 Introduction and Welcome
00:46 Part One
00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz
02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model
06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism
07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms
08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy
09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers
15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends
28:47 Part Two
32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?
36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads
36:34 The Struggles of Threads
36:59 The Power of Network Effects
38:17 The Limitations of Threads
39:48 The Rise of Reddit
40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape
40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter
41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta
44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces
45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter
49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership
54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies
58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions
59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter
01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology
01:02:34 Credits
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The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism. With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes.
00:00
00:00 Introduction
00:55 Part One
01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion
02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets
04:29 Comparing Market Values
07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics
12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges
15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience
18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence
19:30 Part Two
19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget
22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies
30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech
35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement
36:49 Credits
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We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.
00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble
00:44 Part One
00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days
03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained
14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP
18:59 Part Two
19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges
25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration
28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy
32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement
33:25 Credits
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We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI? Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.
00:00 Introduction
00:49 Part One
01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation
03:25 Understanding Company Valuations
06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations
10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech
15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons
21:12 Part Two
21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles
25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics
36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions
43:46 Credits
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This week we speak with Bill Raduchel, who has served as a high-level executive and strategic adviser for organizations such as Sun Microsystems, AOL Time Warner, Xerox, McGraw-Hill, and the Salvation Army. Over half a century working with systems, software, and networks, he has remained at the forefront of the technology revolution in media, education, and corporate governance including recognition at Sun as CIO of the Year and the top CFO in the computer industry and at AOL as CTO of the year. He holds more than fifty issued patents as well as a PhD in econometrics from Harvard, where he taught for five years with John Kenneth Galbraith. He has been writing software in some form since he turned fifteen years old in 1961. He is also the author of The New Technology State. This book is about society—how it has changed and what technology is enabling us to do to ourselves. [Repeat from April, 2024]
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The New Technology State: Redefining the Tech and Government Landscape
00:00 Welcome to Bubble Trouble: A Skeptical Conversation
00:46 A Journey Through Tech and Economics
06:23 The Evolution of Technology and Its Impact on Economics
08:02 The Writing Process and Insights into Bill's Book
11:21 Exploring the New Technology State and Government Challenges
17:43 The Intricacies of Tech Talent and Government Staffing
19:53 Tech Debt and the Challenges of Modernization
25:55 The Global Tech Landscape: Government and Private Sector Dynamics
25:55 Wrapping Up Part One and Teasing Part Two
25:55 Simplifying UK Government Websites: A Double-Edged Sword
25:55 The Dangers of Centralization and Cybersecurity
26:10 Big Tech, Government, and the Quest for Regulation
27:59 The Talent Gap in Government and Tech Regulation Challenges
29:15 Innovative Solutions andthe Power of Decentralization
30:15 The Role of Startups in Tech Innovation and Employee Motivation
31:59 Google's Management Revolution: Lessons in Innovation
34:45 The Complexities of Regulating Big Tech
40:05 Navigating the Future of AI and Government Regulation
42:19 Economics, Education, and the Future Workforce
44:56 Smoke Signals: Warning Signs in Tech and Regulation
50:06 Credits
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One of the first casualties of the AI race may be lawyers, and that’s where we go this week with Damien Riehl who is at the front line of disrupting the legal profession. Law without lawyers? Really? Are we moving from if to when this tipping point becomes reality.
For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com
You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/
More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com
(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)
The AI Revolution in Law: Disrupting and Democratizing Legal Services
In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the disruptive potential of AI in the legal profession with guest Damien Rio from vLex. The discussion explores the transformative impact of AI on access to legal services, the operational overhaul of legal tasks through large language models, and the future implications for lawyers, courts, and clients. Damien shares insights on his groundbreaking work in automating legal processes, addressing the challenges of legal backlog, and the potential for AI to democratize access to law worldwide. The episode also touches on the impact of AI on litigation strategies, private versus public legal data, and the future landscape of legal arbitration.
00:00 Introduction and Guest Welcome
00:44 Part One
00:52 Damien's Background and TED Talk
01:30 Part Two
01:30 Introduction to V Lex
02:30 The Role of AI in Legal Research
03:41 Disrupting the Legal Profession
07:54 Democratizing Access to Law
09:13 Challenges and Opportunities in Legal Tech
17:59 AI's Impact on Legal Disputes
23:58 The Role of Non-Lawyers in Legal Services
25:28 Democratizing Access to Law
25:58 Part Two
26:08 Economic Impacts of Legal Tech
26:59 Jevons Paradox and Legal Work
28:35 AI in the Judicial System
34:55 Global Implications of Legal Tech
38:18 AI's Limitations and Future in Law
46:45 Copyright and Patent Innovations
48:28 Conclusion and Future Prospects
49:12 Credits
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