Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 27
Access Jannis Meindl's 'Inflation & Growth Expectations, Terminal Fed Funds Rate, Deficit Financing'
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about the latest inflation dynamics, the U.S. consumer continuing to drive activity, and the Fed's milestones on the way to a pivot. Paul & Jannis also cover the implications of sovereigns decreasing their treasury holdings in the context of U.S. deficit financing.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Inflation Slowing, Fed Milestones, Deficit Financing
14:20 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on December 12, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 28
Access Jannis Meindl's 'Monetary Tightness Continues'
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss last week's central bank action, consumer spending in the context of strong Nike earnings, and markets continue to price low secular inflation.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Markets Price Low Secular Inflation
14:12 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on December 21, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 26
Access Jannis Meindl's 'The Prospects For Future Growth'
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about the fundamental drivers of economic growth and how capital, labor, and productivity shape up as it pertains to future growth prospects. Within the context of economic growth, Paul & Jannis also talk about China's role as a disinflationary driver for more than two decades.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - The Prospects For Future Economic Growth
12:40 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on December 5, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 25
Access Jannis Meindl's 'Is this A Titanic Economy?'
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about what a Fed pivot or pause would mean, the transmission process of monetary policy and its implications for markets, as well as the connection between commodity and treasury curves.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - A Snapshot Of The U.S. Economic Cycle
12:28 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on November 21, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 24
Access Jannis Meindl's 'The U.S. Economic Cycle'
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl look under the hood of Thursday's CPI report, the implications of high indebtedness of corporations with covenant-lite loans, and yield curves diverging from strong economic data.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - A Snapshot Of The U.S. Economic Cycle
14:00 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on November 14, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 23
Access Jannis Meindl's 'Regime Shift On Wall Street?'
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl cover the latest factor moves in U.S. equity markets, investor sentiment, and the Fed's fight against the undercurrents of inflation (namely wages.)
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - U.S. Equity Factors, Wages, Fed Policy
12:02 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on November 7, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 22
Access Jannis Meindl's Climbing The Macro Mountain.
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the macro landscape ranging from treasury yields to credit spreads. The two also cover the economic growth outlook in the context of the current services spending binge.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Dollar, Sovereign Credit Risk, Fed Policy
14:24 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on October 31, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions and be sure to access this week's Macro Corner Chart Booklet here: Macro Corner Chart Booklet, Episode 21
Access Jannis Meindl's The Dollar Wrecking Ball & Sovereign Bond Yields.
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the most recent pertaining to Fed policy, the decline in central bank fx reserves, and the implications for various asset classes.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Dollar, Sovereign Credit Risk, Fed Policy
16:31 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on October 24, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research. Also access all the Tactical Insights reports mentioned in this episode: Crude Oil Tactical Insights, Natural Gas Tactical Insights, Copper Tactical Insights, Treasuries Tactical Insights
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the predominant supply & demand dynamics for crude oil, natural gas, copper, and the U.S. treasury market. As China reopening hopes got lowered by Xi Jinping, the Biden administration continues to release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, and central banks keep tightening policy, we break down the dynamics at play.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - The Supply & Demand Of Key Commodities
14:11 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on October 20, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research. Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 19, Chart Booklet
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the implications of energy markets for the Fed's future trajectory. As China aims to reopen, the Strategic Petroleum Reserves keep declining, and refining capacity stays constrained, we dive into the most important factors of future energy supply/demand imbalances.
Access Jannis Meindl's article Finding An (Un)Happy Equilibrium While Running From Oil Vigilantes to learn more about the topics discussed in today's podcast.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Oil Vigilantes & The Fed
14:03 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on October 10, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research. Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 18, Chart Booklet
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest indications that inflation may be in the process of quickly slowing down. Today's podcast puts the inflation story into context with the latest Fed speak, the Bank of England's intervention in the Gilt market, and much more.
Access Jannis Meindl's article Poking Holes In The Inflation Balloon expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Market Addictions Get Revealed
12:38 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on October 3, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research. Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 17, Chart Booklet
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest market signals and what they're telling us about Fed policy. Today's podcast also covers the Chinese Yuan and what a depreciation would mean for U.S. treasuries, commodities and stocks.
Access Jannis Meindl's article Fighting Addictions & Lonely Places expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Market Addictions Get Revealed
11:24 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on September 26, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.
Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 16, Chart Booklet
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl dive into the latest datapoints driving Fed policy action, the tug of war between labor & capital as well as investor assumptions priced in.
Access Jannis Meindl's article Monetary Hostile To Fiscal And Vice Versa expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Potential Fed Error & The Distribution of Profits Between Capital and Labor
12:49 - Disclosure
This podcast was recorded on September 19, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.
Access this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 15, Chart Booklet
We talk about the Fed's path forward and whether a soft landing, as indicated by some indicators, is indeed possible or whether higher for longer will put financial assets at risk. Paul and Jannis also cover the implications of structural underinvestment and key factors to watch in this week's CPI report.
Access Jannis Meindl's article Higher For Longer & A Soft Landing expanding on the topics discussed in this podcast.
This podcast was recorded on September 12, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any questions -- we're more than happy to provide you with a 14-day FREE trial of our premium research.
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the shift from the Fed's hawkish rhetoric at Jackson Hole to fiscal dominance. What fiscal spending implies for financial markets and much more covered in today's episode. Access a new chart booklet for free here: Macro Corner Episode 14, Chart Booklet
Access Jannis Meindl's article Fiscal Dominance And The Fed's Amplification Of The Business Cycle to learn more about fiscal dominance.
This podcast was recorded on September 6, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutrues.com with any questions and be sure to access the chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 13, Chart Booklet
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest macro drivers coming off of Jackson Hole and why the speech was merely a direct shift to data dependence. Making economic stability as a whole conditional on price stability, what does it mean for risk assets going forward and are we due for a multiple re-rating?
If you want to learn more about today's topics, be sure to access Jannis Meindl's article titled The 2nd Fed Error.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosures
0:18 - Macro Corner Intro
1:08 - Why Jackson Hole Wasn't A Pivot
12:55 - Will Value vs. Growth Have to Re-Rate?
17:04 - Global Wage Coordination
19:25 - U.S. Energy Production
This podcast was recorded on August 29, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Email podcast@bluelinefutures.com with any follow-up questions to the podcast or anything else on the board!
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the lack of fixed asset spending in old economy sectors and the implications for the Fed as well as the economy as a whole. As output gets constrained by a lack of capital formation, the two also talk about the inflation outlook and current market expectations. Macro Corner Chart Booklet accessible: here.
Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday article published yesterday The Structural Underpinnings of the U.S. Economy Compared to FOMC Projections.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Podcast Intro
1:31 - Old Economy Constraints
2:46 - Real vs. Potential GDP Growth
4:44 - Energy Markets & Open Interest
11:32 - The U.S. Output Gap
14:15 - 2-Year Yield Dictating Monetary Policy
18:20 - Europe's Energy Crisis
22:24 - Podcast Outro
This podcast was recorded on August 22, 2022.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl discuss the latest on the inflation front, the effects of quantitative tightening, and the relationship between QT and financial assets. We also talk about consumer credit ballooning and the implications for credit card delinquencies going forward. Access the episode's chart booklet: Macro Corner Episode 11, Chart Booklet
Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday editorial Markets Move with Macro Expectations and Expectations Change.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Podcast Intro
1:15 - Is The First Inflation Wave Over?
7:25 - Investor Sentiment
12:26 - Credit Card Debt Rising
16:56 - Fed Balance Sheet & Correlation To Risk Assets
20:37 - Outro & Jackson Hole Talk
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about secular forces in the U.S. economy while weighing those longer-term forces against short-term market dynamics. The importance of a wage-price spiral, the TINA effect and money flows. Be sure to give the episode a listen! Be sure to check out this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 10, Chart Booklet
Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday editorial Risk Asset Pricing is a Function of Flows.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Podcast Intro
2:15 - Stagflation Economy & What Portfolios Work
7:31 - Is The Wage-Price Spiral Real?
15:45 - Multiples & TINA
21:38 - Money Flows
25:07 - Economic Data & Outro
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Paul Wankmueller, CMT and Jannis Meindl talk about the current state of monetary policy and why high inflation may reduce the burden of high debt levels. The podcast also covers the most important aspects of last week's Fed meeting and what Jay Powell's dovish tone means for financial assets. Be sure to check out this week's chart booklet here: Macro Corner Episode 9, Chart Booklet
Check out Jannis Meindl's Sunday editorial The Reality of Negative Real Rates that was published on July 31, 2022.
Timecodes:
0:00 - Disclosure
0:18 - Podcast Intro
1:02 - Negative Real Interest Rates
3:00 - U.S. Debt & Interest Outlay
14:50 - Dovish Fed & Financial Conditions
22:23 - Wage Inflation
28:27 - Loan Growth
30:31 - Outro & Disclosure
Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.