The recent conclusion of China’s Fourth Plenum has shed light on the strategic direction of the 15th Five-Year Plan, highlighting key priorities such as boosting domestic consumption, advancing technological self-reliance, and expanding into new export markets. Following the Plenum, Chinese President Xi also met with US President Trump in South Korea, reaching a mutual agreement to pause key trade escalations for a year.
What do these developments mean for the future of US-China relations, and can Chinese markets continue its bull run in 2026?
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd.
Q3 US corporate earnings continue to report strong, with S&P 500 profits on track for 12% year-on-year growth and widespread beats on sales and margins.
However, despite robust fundamentals, stocks reacting to positive reports have underperformed historically, weighed down by already-bullish investor positioning. An inverted put-call skew in the “Magnificent 7” suggests elevated optimism, often followed by short-term pullbacks.
Meanwhile, fears of AI-fuelled overinvestment in tech appear overstated: while capital expenditure is rising, it remains modest as a share of revenue, free cash flow, and GDP.
Looking at China, policy direction after the Fourth Plenum supports continued advancement in AI, semiconductors, and robotics, while the recent Xi-Trump meeting offers temporary relief on trade tensions. Though near-term consolidation is possible, structural drivers keep China tech and equities attractive for diversified portfolios.
October was a busy month for those involved in FX transactions and the vagaries of the precious metals markets. With the US Federal Reserve having started to lower rates and continuing expectations of a weakening dollar, how are investors positioning themselves as they head towards year end?
In this episode of the Beyond Markets Podcast, Bernadette Anderko sits down with Tim Gagie, Head of FX and Precious Metals Sales at Julius Baer Geneva to discuss the challenges involved in reducing dollar exposure, what alternatives look interesting and of course, the explosive performance of gold in 2025 and how volatility is providing investors with interesting opportunities.
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87% of the S&P 500 index companies that have reported their Q3 earnings thus far have beaten consensus forecasts - significantly higher than the 10-year average beat rate of 75%. Earnings growth is running at 9.2% year/year, vs. 7.9% that analysts had estimated prior to the start of the reporting season. The NASDAQ 100 index is also on track to post 7 consecutive months of gains. In each of the four times this had happened before, returns in the 12 months that followed were double-digit, averaging 17.5%.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
Recent bankruptcies of companies that accessed the private debt market are a reminder that manager selection is of the utmost importance. The real acid test for the private debt market will be the next recession, although there are no signs of one on the horizon. Still, the labour market is changing, and we look for a rate cut at the Fed’s next meeting on October 29, followed by another three by March. Alibaba claims to have invented a computing pooling solution that reduces the number of Nvidia GPUs needed to serve its AI models by 82%. An index of Hong Kong residential property infers prices are up 6% this month.
This episode is presented by Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia at Julius Baer.
For the first time in five years, emerging market equities are outperforming their developed market peers. But what’s driving this rally? Interestingly enough, this boom is driven by a rather small number of stocks, mainly located in North Asia.
In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Nenad Dinic, Emerging Market Equity Strategist and Manuel Villegas, Next Generation Research Analyst, discuss with Ayako Lehmann why emerging market equities are having this strong run, to what extent developed markets are highly dependent on AI components coming from Asia and whether the usual commodities and macro factors that used to be the key drivers of EM equities have lost their importance or not and what this all means when it comes to diversifying a global portfolio.
As the third-quarter equity earnings season begins, we anticipate broadly supportive results, with a strong focus on the ongoing AI investment cycle and commentary from the hyperscalers. While revenue generation will be a key theme heading into 2026, significant execution risks remain despite the expansive opportunity set.
Amid growing policy uncertainties in the United States, investors may find merit in diversifying portions of their equity exposure away from the US toward other markets, such as China, Switzerland, India, and Japan, where policy settings appear more favourable.
In fixed income, listed corporate credit continues to look attractive, supported by tightening spreads and limited new supply.
This episode is presented by Bhaskar Laxminarayan, Chief Investment Officer Asia and Middle East at Julius Baer.
Golden Week has just wrapped, offering a timely snapshot of China’s consumer sentiment. Travel volumes surged, but spending data remained subdued, highlighting the limits of short-term stimulus and reinforcing calls for deeper structural reform.
Amidst this backdrop, China’s stock market continues to rally, prompting fresh questions: Can momentum broaden beyond tech? Will long-awaited social reforms finally shift the consumption narrative? And what does a weakening US dollar mean for global asset allocation?
Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., return to unpack the macro forces behind the rally, the outlook for the 15th Five-Year Plan, and why gold and silver are stealing the spotlight in 2025.
This episode was recorded on 8 October 2025.
Despite uncertainty around the US government shutdown and signs of economic weakness, equities have rallied, though tech stocks paused as AI enthusiasm met valuation concerns. With non-farm payroll data delayed, investors are turning to private sector indicators for labour market insights. Meanwhile, in Japan, Sanae Takaichi’s surprise win as Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leader signals a potential return to expansionary “Sanaenomics”, a policy stance reminiscent of Abenomics, boosting equities and pressuring the yen. Tune in for a deep dive into the macro shifts shaping markets this week.
This episode is presented by Magdalene Teo, Head of Fixed Income Research Asia, Julius Baer.
Structured products can provide investors with capital protection, enhanced yield, or targeted exposure to specific market scenarios. While they may appear complex to those less familiar with them, this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast aims to demystify these instruments. Helen Freer is joined by two Julius Baer experts, Conrad Bruggisser and Raffaele Perroncello, to explain how structured products work and how they can add value to a portfolio. They also discuss the key risks to consider, why market volatility is relevant and how the products can be tailored to suit different investor profiles.
The US equity market defied expectations of September seasonal weakness, with the S&P 500 index gaining 4% this month. With the exception of India, many global markets have also seen gains, with US, Hong Kong and Japan up 30% in USD terms since April , Europe up 20%, Korea and Taiwan up 50%.
In this episode of The Week in Markets, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, considers if we should ride this momentum in the Chinese equity markets. He examines investor flows and positioning, asset re-allocation trends from domestic retail investors, and recent market pullbacks in the tech and pharmaceutical sectors. He also looks ahead at key fourth quarter events and catalysts to watch – such as the meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping at the APEC summit, and the Fourth Plenum of the Chinese Communist Party.
Richard also highlights Julius Baer’s latest views on Singapore equities, which we have recently upgraded to Overweight. Please also check out our recent episode on the Singapore dollar and equities at the following links:
Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/singapore-dollar-small-but-mighty/id1552236298?i=1000728312662
Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/episode/0Io10QxFwEkbNQzJNDUpbM?si=rwR9CLdoQISPC79v8SKAGQ
When one thinks of safe haven currencies, the Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and US dollar typically come to mind. But with capital flows diversifying away from the US dollar, interest in alternative safe havens is increasing. The Singapore dollar, one of Asia’s most stable and best-performing currencies, stands out as one such potential candidate. In this episode, we explore the unique characteristics of the Singapore dollar, its central role in Singapore’s monetary policy, and how investors can position themselves to benefit from the Singapore dollar’s strength.
This episode is presented by Yaw Shin Wong, Equity Specialist and Jen-Ai Chua, Equity Research Analyst at Julius Baer.
The US Federal Reserve resumed its rate cut cycle last week with a widely expected 25bp rate cut. Julius Baer expects four further rate cuts through March 2026, pausing at 3.25%, while the markets are pricing in slightly more aggressive easing. Against a backdrop of rapidly falling short-term rates and rising re-investment risk, 5-7 year bonds emerge as the sweet spot – offering a balance of yield and volatility amid a steepening curve.
In credit markets, the tight spreads between corporates and Treasuries aren’t just a sign of strong corporate demand, but also reflect weakening Treasury appeal. When benchmarked against swaps, the implied corporate credit spreads appear more normal, supporting continued inflows into investment-grade corporate bonds.
In equities, the rally in lower-quality and non-profitable tech stocks suggests that the market has been expecting and pricing in looser monetary policy conditions. However, a reversal may be due, and it may be time for quality stocks to outperform again. Notably, despite strong gains, valuations of the Magnificent 7 stocks remain below prior bubble peaks.
This episode is presented by Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer.
The 10-year treasury yield is breaking down as it anticipates rate cuts. This is mostly due to a tightening job market, especially for entry-level candidates and young people. We look for a series of rate cuts, starting this week and ending next March. An interesting statistic to note: in the 20 other times since 1980 when the Fed cut at, or near an all-time high in the S&P 500 index, the index was up a year later in every case.
Meanwhile, global fund manager interest in China is high, but it’s been so long they’ve looked at that market, that they need time to do their homework before investing. Additionally, a weighted average basket of emerging market currencies recently broke a 14-year downward resistance channel.
As we head towards the end of the year, financial markets are caught between fading growth and expectations regarding monetary policy. How should investors navigate financial markets in the final months of 2025, and where do we see the sweet spots?
In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Christian Gattiker, Julius Baer’s Head of Research, and Mark Matthews, Head of Research Asia, talk to Bernadette Anderko about the macroeconomic developments since Liberation Day, what they expect from the Fed and the ECB for the rest of the year, and the current global opportunities for investors, particularly, but not only, in the equity and fixed income space.
In this episode of Beyond Markets, we take a closer look at agentic AI, which is no longer just a concept. AI agents are actively reshaping how tasks get done, decisions are made, and content is created. These autonomous systems mark a shift from passive AI models to active agents that can reason, act, and self-improve. We are joined by Manuel Villegas from Julius Baer’s Next Generation Research team to answer these questions and much more.
Hosted by Emily Rookwood, Head of Thought Leadership at Julius Baer.
The Nikkei 225 recently reached an all-time high of 43,876, driven by better-than-expected first-quarter earnings, ongoing corporate reforms, and a weaker yen. On September 7, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba announced his resignation, triggering a leadership race within the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). While political uncertainty may weigh on sentiment in the near term, structural tailwinds continue to support Japan’s long-term investment outlook.
This episode is presented by Louis Chua, equities research analyst at Julius Baer.
The rapid pace of China's stock market rally in August has sparked concerns of a market bubble forming, with local regulators mulling measures to curb stock speculation. Are these concerns warranted, and is the end of the rally near?
The Renminbi, in the meantime, continues to strengthen against the weakening US dollar, and gold has broken out again, making new all-time highs.
Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, and Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management Ltd., share their perspectives in this month's edition of China Conversations.
This week’s episode explores how artificial intelligence (AI) is boosting corporate profitability while reshaping the labour market. Since the launch of ChatGPT in late 2022, S&P 500 revenue per worker has climbed 15% after years of stagnation, but entry-level jobs are increasingly under pressure. The Federal Reserve’s focus has now shifted from inflation towards employment. Our economist expects five rate cuts by March 2026, though policy uncertainty and eroded trust keep our 10-year US Treasury yield forecast steady at 4.25%. History offers many examples of presidential overreach, episodes that typically prove temporary. With the Trump administration set to continue for another three and a half years, however, investors may feel compelled to exercise caution and consider diversifying beyond the US and the traditional financial system, including assets such as gold.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell clearly signalled at Jackson Hole that a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting is likely. In this episode of the Beyond Markets podcast, Helen Freer talks to Julius Baer’s Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, about what a resumption of the Fed’s rate-cutting cycle would mean for bond markets. They also discuss the current fiscal concerns and the expected impact of tariffs on inflation, both in and outside of the US.