David Samra has been in the investment business for over 30years. He specialises in international value and has beaten his index by over 4% pa for over 20 years, in a period when traditional value has been doing poorly.
That may be why his fund, which has been closed to new investors for most of the last 14 years, has reached $50bn. In this conversation David explains his focus on four factors: owning good companies, buying them at a discount of at least 30% to intrinsic value, and ensuring they have excellent management and a strong balance sheet.
And he discusses several of his stocks, sharing some impressively detailed knowledge.
Dave Iben is the founder and CIO of Kopernick GlobalInvestors, a $6bn global value investment shop which prides itself on independent thought and is comfortable with contrarian positions.
Steve invited Dave on the podcast because at a recent NewYork conference, Dave was cheerleading that value was back, and Steve wanted to discuss the rationale for his enthusiasm, given value’s massive underperformance in the last 15 years. Luckily Dave was spending the summer in London looking for cheap UK stocks, and they could record in person.
Gary Channon is one of the UK’s better known valueinvestors. He runs a value fund, a closed-end fund and a private equity vehicle. He runs a highly concentrated portfolio. The top 5 positions are over 50%, and he holds no more than 15 stocks.
I asked him on the podcast because he is really thoughtful about his process – he only buys stocks selling for <50% of intrinsic value, and if he can monitor the business performance independently of the company's communications. He is then prepared to hold them for extended periods, as long as they remain cheap.
His framework for evaluating a stock includes parameterslike the depth of work completed and confidence levels, he has instructed his entire research team to become AI experts and he has already seen significant benefits; he thinks AI means sellside analysts will be more or less gone in twoyears; and we talked about his techniques for interviewing management which include spending 4-6 hours preparing for a 1 hour meeting.
Jennifer Wallace is a value investor. She learned her tradefrom a series of luminaries, studying under Bruce Greenwald at Columbia, before going to work for famed value investor Bob Bruce (who used to hang out with Warren Buffett).
Today she is the CIO of Summit Street Capital Management, and only invests in high quality companies with modest leverage when they are super cheap. This means she will often find stocks with issues that are hopefully temporary.
But she has found a winning formula, having delivered a 7.8x return to investors since 2009. Around a quarter of her investee companies have been acquired. She explains why, her rationale for having a 25-30 stock equally-weighted portfolio and why you should not befriend CEOs - "if you want a friend, get a dog”.
In his youth, George Michelakis, was a top 3 global under-20chess player. No surprise he is pretty good at investing too and runs a $2bn long short equity hedge fund out of London. Since 2006, he has compounded capital at a rate of 5.35x vs 3.43k for the MSCI world, on net exposure of 30-45%. That’s an impressive record but astonishingly, he entered his longest-running short position 10 years ago.
We talked about his investing philosophy, his theory about alifestyle recession, why shorting is critical to performance, how he manages the fund and the team, why he focuses on management and why, as in chess, man plus machine or analyst plus AI will beat the lone human, which has profoundimplications for investors.
Dan Rasmussen is the founder and CIO of Verdad Advisers, an unconventional quantitative investment boutique. In this conversation, Steve and Dan agree that private equity and credit look highly risky for the next decade. They debate the value of forecasting, where they have very different views. They similarly disagree on forecast horizons, with Dan favouring near term accuracy and Steve thinking longer term forecasts are more likely to be accurate. They also debate the persistence of growth and discuss Dan’s favourite financial metric.
Steve and Dan have different perspectives on many issueswhich leads to apparently contradictory conclusions but in reality, they don’t disagree – the issue is base rates versus marginal opportunities. Steve and Dan view markets through different lenses, which makes for an interesting discussion.
In this episode with Tom Slater of Baillie Gifford, manager of the £10bn Scottish Mortgage investment trust, we cover a lot of ground. Of course, we discuss his current thoughts on China and the Mag 7, including why he has trimmed Nvidia but still likes Meta and his thoughts on Elon Musk. Tom explainshis investing philosophy, what growth managers do differently from traditional value managers and how the firm’s culture has made Baillie Gifford such a successful manager.
Tom explains how he remains calm in the roller coaster rides of many of his stocks, with drawdowns of 60-70% common, notably Nvidia in 2022 on its way to that $3tn capitalisation; why he favours technical founders who can advantage their companies in the AI age; what Elon Musk said to him in 2013 and why that has stayed with him; the difference between investing in quoted companies and those in private markets; and why he and colleagues don’t pitch stocks to the team, which he believes gives them an important behavioural advantage.
When it comes to credit, few people have better credentials than Greg Peters, co-CIO of PGIM, with AUM of $700bn. In this fascinating conversation, we discuss the differences between investing in equities and credit, the legacy of the zero interest rate period, why PGIM uses scenario based forecasting in preference to single point estimates, why covenants have gone out of fashion and why that’s dangerous, ad much more. Listen to the end for an update on the outlook for markets in 2025.
Anthony Bolton is best known for Fidelity Special Situationsfund’s 19.5% pa returns, 6% above his benchmark, over a 28 year period. He was not only a highly accomplished investor but was both revered and liked by his colleagues. Pragmatic, unfailingly courteous, courageous, and universally popular, he exhibits none of the arrogance that is sometimes exhibited by successful investors with far inferior performance.
In a first for this podcast, this interview was recorded live at the Library of Mistakes in Edinburgh on November 21, 2024, in front of an audience of investors, professional and amateur.
Bill Nygren has been at Harris Associates for over 40 years and considers himself a value investor. Yet his portfolio has owned Netflix, Amazon and Meta recently, while Alphabet is his largest position. Bill explains his unusual but highly effective approach to value investing.
Harris has also constructed a unique organisational methodology to handle investing mistakes – I have never encountered a process in which the analyst is changed when the stock doesn’t go to plan. Bill explains why and other techniques in this fascinating discussion. Steve was so looking forward to this conversation and Bill didn’t disappoint.
Peter Oppenheimer is chief global equity strategist and head of Macro Research at Goldman Sachs in Europe and the author of two books on market cycles.
His first book, the Long Good Buy is sub-titled Analysing Cycles in Markets. His follow-up book Any Happy Returns, is sub-titled Structural Changes and Super Cycles in Markets and looks at longer term secular trends and the future outlook for economies and markets. Our discussion covers both.
Our episode title refers to Peter’s study of cycles in markets, but amusingly for a partner at Goldman Sachs, he arrived for our recording on a bike, not their usual mode of transport.
John Armitage is a giant in the hedge fund world and in the world of investing more broadly. His firm, Egerton Capital, celebrates its 30th anniversary this year. In this conversation, John explains how he started with $10m, and why you couldn’t do that today. He touches on his portfolio, talks about his approach to investing, explaining why he requires his analysts to follow more than one sector, and why he doesn’t employ data scientists. We discuss Elon Musk, AI, and geopolitics and John gives advice to a young person contemplating a career choice.
And Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management, the largest single equity owner in the world, explains why John is so highly regarded by his peers.
John is our first podcast guest to return for a second episode.
John Huber is an investor with a small fund managing his family assets and outside capital in a concentrated portfolio.
John has written an excellent blog, Base Hit Investing, for many years, explaining his investing principles.
We discuss these in this episode, including what John looks for in an investment, why he emphasises capital allocation even more today, where he sees the sweet spot in revenue growth, why he likes Alphabet, why he is focused in North American stocks but is now looking at Japan and US small caps and why Floor & Décor is one of his major positions.
Carine Smith Ihenacho is Chief Governance and Compliance Officer at Norges Bank Investment Management, the Norwegian wealth fund. It’s the largest single equity owner in the world and sets out to be the most transparent. She is therefore likely the most powerful person in the world of ESG.
In our podcast episode, Huw van Steenis and I discussed:
Carine is uniquely placed to comment on the energy transition and all things relating to governance and this was a fascinating conversation.
Chris Mayer is the founder of Woodlock House Family Capital and the author of 100 Baggers: Stocks that Return 100-to-1 and How to Find Them. He has written several other books and formerly wrote an investing newsletter which led him to travel the world seeking investment ideas.
Studying the universe of 100 Baggers has led Chris to a clear set of investing principles which mean his universe of investible ideas is extremely limited and his fund owns just 11 stocks.
Our discussion covers his respect for family owned businesses, his emphasis on corporate culture and his focus on the very long term. He even rejected an institutional investor as a client because they wanted monthly performance.
Lawrence Cunningham is the author of 20 books; an academic with over 60 publications; a legal expert; an accounting expert; a governance expert; a director on 3 quoted company boards; and a company adviser.
His most famous book is the Essays of Warren Buffett in which he extracts sections from the sage’s letters over decades and orders them by subject. In our conversation, he tells how he first met Mr Buffett, how the books came about, how he sends Mr Buffett a draft of each publication, and explains how and why the letters are so carefully crafted.
Few have studied Berkshire and particularly the letters as closely and he has some fascinating perspectives.
Peter Cowley is a successful angel investor. But it was his tragic private life which prompted this interview. Two of his three children lost to suicide; their mother died unexpectedly; his sister lost to alcoholism; his brother died aged 21 from cancer; two decades in recovery from alcoholism; and he has now been diagnosed with terminal Stage 4c cancer and statistically has 9 months to live.
In this interview, Peter calls himself fortunate. Since meeting Peter, not a day has passed that Steve has not thought about this remarkable man and day felt grateful for his lot. Hopefully the podcast will also make people aware of how common suicide is among young men.
Jonathan Ruffer is the founder of the eponymous asset management firm, a bold and successful investor (a combination unusual to survive, let alone thrive) and considers himself a financial historian. He remains the figurehead of the firm although has stepped back somewhat from the daily combat with markets. In this episode, he explains why he thinks the Yen could double, why the equities age is behind us, why inflation is here to stay and much more. And in a first for this podcast, Jonathan turns the tables and asks me the most difficult interview question of all time.
