For decades, economics assumed people were rational. Then Kahneman, Tversky and Thaler showed us otherwise - that our decisions are shaped by bias, story, and emotion.
In this episode of The Quiet Future, futurist Kristiina Paju explores how behavioural economics helps us understand real human behaviour - through ideas like mental accounting, cognitive bias, and the psychology of everyday choices.
She also connects it to foresight, showing how noticing our thinking can help us design more human, thoughtful futures.
Every foresight professional knows that spark - the moment you notice something new emerging and think:"Something's changing!" But what if the trends we spot say as much about our own minds as they do about the future itself?
In this episode of The Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores the psychology of trendspotting. From playful phenomena like bardcore to deeper shifts like skills-based work structures, Kristiina unpacks how cognitive and behavioural biases shape what we see and what we overlook.
What you will learn:
- why trendspotting is both science and storytelling
- how cognitive biases like availability, confirmation, and social proof influence foresight work
- how to pause, reflect, and see beyond the "noise" of popular futures
- why noticing how we notice may be the most important skill of all
A calm exploration for anyone practicing futures thinking, strategy, or simply learning to see change more clearly. Check out her websites www.futuresjournal.eu and https://kristiinapaju.eu
In uncertain times, the pressure to act quickly can be overwhelming. But what if clarity - not speed - is the real key to better decision-making?
In this reflective episode of the Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores how behavioural science and foresight can help us lead with calm, clarity and connection. Drawing on Päivi Heikinheimo's work and frameworks like the Cynefin model, Kristiina unpacks why the best decisions emerge not from urgency but from shared understanding.
We talk about sustainability all the time but so we truly understand what it means?
In this reflective episode of The Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores why sustainability is so often misunderstood. Beyond reports, checklists, ad buzzwords, true sustainability means creating conditions where life - human and non-human - can thrive.
Through lenses of foresight and behavioural science, Kristiina unpacks why sustainability challenges the human mind's preference for short-term comfort and how leaders can use futures thinking to align today's actions with tomorrow's well-being.
A gentle reminder that sustainability is not an endpoint - it is an ongoing practice of care, awareness and imagination.
To learn more about Kristiina's work in futures thinking, workshops and consulting, visit: www.kristiinapaju.eu & www.futuresjournal.eu
When economic pressures rise, layoffs often feel like the easiest solution but the consequences ripple far beyond balance sheets. In this episode, Kristiina Paju explores how short-term decisions can impact families, communities, and the social trust that holds organizations together.
We examine the psychological forces at play, including present bias and diffusion of responsibility, and explore how cascading bad news can escalate poor choices. Through the lens of foresight, Kristiina highlights alternative strategies - job redesign, reskilling, and collaborative work-sharing - that protect both people and organizational resilience.
This episode invites leaders and listeners alike to pause, reflect and ask: how can today's decisions safeguard tomorrow's future?
Get your copy of the Futures Literacy Journal: www.futuresjournal.eu & https://kristiinapaju.eu
We often frame artificial intelligence as a neutral tool - something we design, program, and control. But in reality, AI is already shaping how we think, decide and imagine.
From search algorithm to workplace dashboards, these systems do not just provide information. They direct attention, set defaults and quietly nudge behaviour.
In this episode of the Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju reflects on how AI influences our choices in subtle but profound ways. Through the lens of behavioural science and foresight, she explores briefly how we can notice these nudges and reclaim agency - designing, regulating, and using AI in ways that align with the futures we truly want.
Recruitment is often framed as a rational, objective process. But hidden beneath the résumés and job titles are subtle biases that shape who gets seen as "qualified" and who gets overlooked.
In this episode of The Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores how overreliance on titles, linear career paths, and years of experience can blind us to potential, transferable skills, and fresh perspectives. From graduates and international candidates to professionals with non-traditional backgrounds, too many futures are being filtered out before they even begin.
Through a foresight lens, Kristiina reflects on how organizations can move beyond bias and recognize talent not just for what someone has done, but for what they can become.
Join this reflective episode on reshaping recruitment for more adaptive, inclusive and futures-ready teams.
Do not forget to check out Kristiina's creations such as The Futures Literacy Journal www.futuresjournal.eu (soon to be made available as a digital platform) and her service packages https://kristiinapaju.eu
Boldness in leadership is often confused with recklessness or bravado. But when seen through the lens of behavioural science and foresight, boldness takes on a deeper meaning: conscious courage.
In this episode, Kristiina Paju explores how leaders can move beyond biases like loss aversion, status quo bias, and groupthink, to cultivate boldness that is thoughtful, values-driven, and adaptive. Rather than waiting for certainty, bold leaders step forward with clarity, invite diverse perspectives and embrace experimentation as a way of learning.
Tune in to reflect on how foresight and behavioural insights can help us all practice a quieter, more intentional form of boldness in uncertain times.
Please check out the journal: www.futuresjournal.eu
When we think about the future, it is natural to lean into hopeful visions. But alongside the desirable futures, there are always the ones we would rather not face - the undesirable, uncomfortable scenarios.
In this reflective episode of the Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores how working with discomfort can actually prepare us for resilience and transformation.
By facing undesirable futures instead of turning away, we uncover blind spots, identify vulnerabilities, and build the capacity to act with more awareness today.
Listen in to discover how discomfort, when engaged with consciously, becomes a powerful tool for preparedness and opportunity.
Futures do not only happen in vision - they emerge from our daily choice and actions. In this episode of the Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores the Behaviour Change Techniques Taxonomy (BCTT) and how it can enrich strategic foresight.
From feedback loops to social support, from prompt to habit formation, behaviour change techniques are the "micro-tools" of transformation. When paired with foresight, they help bridge the gap between preferred futures and lived practices.
Listen in for reflective guidance on how the small design of behaviour can unlock big systemic change.
In futures work, it is tempting to wait for the big leaps - those grand transformations that change everything. But often, the true progress happens quietly, in small, everyday shifts.
In this reflective episode of the Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju invites you to notice and celebrate the small wins in strategic foresight. Drawing on the progress principle by Teresa Amabile, she explores how recognizing tiny steps forward can sustain motivation, nurture futures literacy, and remind us that the future is built one choice at a time.
Listen in to slow down, reflect, and find encouragement in the quiet power of progress.
Every decision you make happens inside an environment designed by someone. From the order of a menu to the way a question is worded, choice architecture quietly shapes what we notice, remember, and ultimately choose.
In this episode of the Quiet Future, Finnish-Estonian futurist Kristiina Paju explores the hidden power of decision environments, and the ethical responsibility we carry when we design them. Drawing from ideas of from Richard Thaler, Cass Sunstein, Eric J. Johnson, and even Benjamin Franklin's "moral algebra", we look at how to see those structures, question their intent and reimagine them to align with the futures we want.
Slow down. Look around. Notice the invisible hands guiding your path. And when it's your turn to be the architect - design with care.
Listen now for reflective prompts and practical ways to shape choices for the greater good. Get the Futures Literacy Journal: www.futuresjournal.eu
This episode dives into one of the foundational tools in futures work - backcasting. Often mistaken for common sense planning, backcasting is something much deeper - a method that begins with a preferred future and works backward to explore what conditions, shifts, and surprises might need to unfold for that future to become possible.
But there is a catch: our own minds can quietly distort the process. In this reflective episode, Kristiina Paju explores how the subtle biases like motivated reasoning, projection bias, and path dependency can quietly weaken transformative futures and how we can use backcasting more consciously to disrupt these patterns.
Includes a quiet reflection to help you notice how your current beliefs shape your vision.
What if slowing down could open up new ways of seeing the future?
Welcome to the Quiet Future - a reflective podcast exploring futures literacy, cognitive bias, imagination and systems thinking.
I am Kristiina Paju, a Finnish-Estonian futurist. Each episode is a quiet guide into how we think, feel and decide about what comes next.
From backcasting to neurodivergence, from collective illusions to small shifts in everyday foresight - this is where complexity meets stillness.
Listen whenever you find your stillness.
Can a game help us make better decisions about the future?
In this reflective episode, Kristiina Paju shares how decision-making games, like the one she is developing as part of her MBA thesis, can help foresight professionals recognise cognitive and emotional biases that often go unnoticed in traditional strategic settings.
From confirmation bias to control habits, this episode explores how play creates a safe space to observe, question and reimagine how we think ahead.
Includes a guided reflection on a past decision and how different conditions - more time, more play, more perspective - might have opened up new futures.
Why does thinking about the future feel so heavy, especially at work?
In this reflective episode, Kristiina Paju explores the quiet reality of futures fatigue: when the desire to think long-term meets with environments built for short-term survival. From structural blockers like busyness culture and rigid hierarchies to small, everyday design shifts that nurture imagination, this episode gently invites listeners to reimagine how foresight can live in the daily rhythm of life and work.
Foresight does not need more pressure - but more permission.
In this episode of The Quiet Future, Kristiina Paju explores how in-group bias, groupthink and herding quietly shape the futures we imagine - especially in groups, communities, and institutions.
When our shared futures are built only within the boundaries of sameness, what gets left out? And what kind of imagination becomes possible when we gently challenge the collective comfort zone?
Includes a guided reflection to help listeners tune into the social dynamics of their own foresight spaces.
We do not need to abandon our groups - we just need to make more space at the table of imagination!
What if your emotions were quietly shaping the futures you believe in?
In this episode of The Quiet Future, Kristiina Paju explores how confirmation bias and fear influence the stories we tell ourselves about what is possible. From survival-driven thinking to emotionally filtered futures, this reflection asks: what are we missing when we only see what we expect to see?
Includes a gentle guided pause (or a nudge) to help you notice the emotions underneath your future visions and what becomes possible when you loosen their grip.
Not every story the mind tells is the whole truth. Sometimes the future is wider than it feels.
What if the futures we long for do not begin with progress or prediction, but with a feeling?
In this episode of the Quiet Future, Kristiina Paju reflects on belonging as a foundational element of futures thinking. In a time of fragmentation - social, ecological, personal - what would it mean to imagine futures rooted in connection, and shared humanity?
Includes a guided reflection to help listeners envision a future where they (and others) fully belong.
A livable future is one that holds space for all of us to feel at home.
This bonus episode features the audio from a recent LinkedIn Live presentation. It introduces the background and structure of the Futures Literacy Journal - get yours here!
We’re sharing it here now due to unexpected technical issues with our podcast platform - thank you for your patience and understanding.
While this isn’t the reflective episode we originally planned to release today, we hope you’ll still find inspiration and value in the conversation. The new episode is on its way and will be published as soon as possible.
Thank you for being part of our growing community and for sticking with us through the occasional bumps in the road.
Stay tuned!
