In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current turmoil in the financial markets, characterised by crashing stocks, soaring implied volatility, and rampant investor panic. Jonny highlights the ongoing forced unwinds and the diminishing confidence in the financial system, despite strong economic data. They discuss the impact of recent tariff announcements by the Trump administration, noting that higher-than-expected tariffs and shifting goalposts have left businesses uncertain about their next steps. The hosts explore the unintended consequences of these actions and the potential market repercussions that could unfold. Tune in for insights on navigating these turbulent times in the economic landscape.

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the pressing topic of tariffs and their impact on the economy. Jonny, who has been skeptical about the likelihood of a recession, discusses how current tariff policies are slowing growth, increasing prices, and disrupting global supply chains. The episode highlights the significant decline in business and consumer confidence, with companies putting hiring and capital expenditure plans on hold due to uncertainty. Jonny also emphasises the potential negative effects on household wealth and consumer spending if the stock market continues to decline. The conversation reveals that the real concern for CEOs may not just be the tariffs themselves but the unpredictability and abrupt changes in policy that could disrupt long-term business strategies. Tune in for an insightful analysis of the current economic climate and what it means for the future.

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews return after a brief hiatus to discuss economic projections for 2025. Johnny emphasises his confidence in the economy for the first half of the year, highlighting strong household and corporate balance sheets, alongside a robust job market. The conversation also touches on Johnny's successful year managing a portfolio for Fortum Capital, crediting his research and content creation for the impressive returns. Listeners are invited to subscribe to the Super Macro newsletter for insights and analysis, with a special offer for a free one-month trial. The episode sets the stage for future discussions, including the potential impact of political changes on the economy.

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the recent economic performance of Ireland, discussing the optimistic outlook for the third quarter. Jonny highlights strong consumer spending trends, projecting a 3% growth rate and an overall GDP growth of around 2.5% for the quarter. They address previous concerns about consumers depleting their savings, revealing new revisions to national accounts that indicate higher household income than previously estimated. Jonny emphasizes the importance of these insights for understanding the current economic landscape and future expectations. Tune in for an in-depth analysis of these trends and their implications for the economy.

In this episode of the Super Macro podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews delve into the current market dynamics and the prevailing economic outlook. Jonny stands firm in his belief that a recession is unlikely, despite increasing skepticism in the market. He emphasizes the importance of maintaining a non-consensus view to capitalize on investment opportunities. The discussion shifts to the Federal Reserve's recent actions, particularly focusing on the dovish stance reflected in the changes in the two-year yield around FOMC meetings since March 2022. Jonny presents a detailed analysis of the trends in interest rates, illustrating how the Fed's projections and actions have influenced market reactions. Tune in for valuable insights on navigating the complexities of today's economic landscape.

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Jonny Matthews and Elvis delve into the current market dynamics and the looming recession narrative. Jonny shares insights on the disparity between market pricing and economic realities, particularly focusing on the rates market. He highlights that the market is pricing in approximately 275 basis points of cuts over the next 15 months, which he argues signals a deep recession—a scenario he believes is unlikely based on current economic conditions. The discussion emphasizes the differences between today's corporate sector and that of the past, noting that companies are now less leveraged than during the 2007-2008 financial crisis. Jonny maintains his conviction that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates as drastically as the market anticipates, presenting a contrarian viewpoint that challenges prevailing market sentiments. Tune in for an engaging analysis that questions the market's recession pricing and explores the broader economic context.

In this episode, Jonny Matthews and Elvis discuss the recent weak CPI print and its implications on the economy. They analyze the job market, highlighting the contrast between cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. Johnny emphasizes the significance of real disposable income growth and strong private sector wages. Stay tuned for a special guest, Andy Constand, joining the conversation later in the episode. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction and Welcome00:00:11 - Discussion on the Economy and CPI Print00:00:57 - Analysis of Payroll and Job Sectors00:01:30 - Real Disposable Income and Consumer Spending00:02:37 - Household Wealth and Economic Outlook00:03:37 - Market Reactions: Bonds Up, Equities Down00:04:13 - Johnny's Year-to-Date Performance00:04:42 - Subscription Information for SuperMacro00:05:09 - Introduction of Special Guest Andy Constan00:06:10 - Andy's Market Call in October/November00:07:04 - Treasury Issuance and Market Reactions00:08:08 - Fed's Dovish Stance and Market Impact00:09:51 - Financial Conditions and Equity Market00:11:07 - Recent Economic Data and CPI Print00:12:18 - Sector Performance and Market Rotation00:13:14 - Economic Slowdown and Rate Cuts00:15:02 - Potential Economic Bounce and Treasury Market Outlook00:16:03 - Financial Conditions and Fed's Influence00:18:01 - Household Wealth and Consumer Behavior00:19:04 - Labor Market and Fed's Potential Rate Cuts00:20:00 - Impact of Financial Conditions on the Economy00:22:47 - Bonds vs. Equities Valuation00:23:19 - Fiscal Deficit and Treasury Issuance00:26:03 - Fed's Policy and Inflation Control00:28:06 - Treasury's Issuance Strategy00:30:34 - Long-term Debt Issuance Strategy00:35:21 - Term Premium Expansion and Asset Impact00:35:40 - Political Aspects of Treasury Issuance00:36:07 - Andy's Favorite Rock Bands00:37:20 - Andy's Updated Top 5 Rock Bands00:37:50 - Where to Find Andy's Work and Subscribe

On this episode of Super Macro, Elvis and Jonny discuss the recent subpar economic data in the United States and its implications for Fed policy. They analyze charts showing the softening data against Treasury yields and the S&P, noting the disconnect between the S&P's strong performance and weakening economic indicators. Tune in to gain insights into the economic surprise index and what this shift in data trends could mean for the future.

In this episode of the Super Macro Podcast, hosts Elvis and Jonny Matthews are joined by special guest Joseph Wang, also known as the Fed guy. Joseph, a former senior trader on the New York Open Markets Desk, shares his insights on the evolution of the Fed, the impact of quantitative easing, and predictions for the future of the economy. The discussion covers topics such as the Fed's role in the financial system, the potential for rate cuts, and the implications of fiscal deficits on asset prices. Tune in to gain valuable insights from Joseph's expertise and stay informed about the latest trends in the financial sector. 00:16 - Introduction and Guest Introduction 00:27 - Joseph Wang's Background 01:28 - Evolution of the Federal Reserve's Role 03:29 - Central Banks and Climate Change 04:35 - Bank of England's Performance Review 05:27 - Skepticism on QE Benefits 08:04 - Impact of QE on Asset Prices 09:11 - Fed's Approach to Balance Sheet Reduction 13:43 - Treasury Buyback Operations 15:25 - Fed's Understanding of Neutral Rate 19:02 - Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts 23:20 - Predictions for the Year: Economy and Markets 27:07 - Gold Price Prediction and TIPS as Inflation Hedge 30:14 - Joseph's Predictions Revisited 32:43 - Performance of Johnny's Portfolio 35:17 - How to Subscribe to the Super Macro Podcast Note 36:09 - Wage Growth and Services Inflation 40:49 - SOFR Futures as a Trading Opportunity 44:14 - Closing Remarks and Future Podcast Announcements

In this episode of The Super Macro Management podcast, Elvis and Jonny Matthews dive into the US labor market and the potential for rate cuts. They analyze the recent payroll data, highlighting healthy gains in both cyclical and non-cyclical sectors. With a decrease in unemployment, an increase in average hourly earnings, and a rise in the working week, the labor market report appears strong. Jonny emphasizes the upward trend in payroll growth over the past four months, noting a recent resurgence after a brief soft patch. Tune in for an insightful discussion on the current state of the US labor market and its implications for the future. 00:00 - Introduction and US Labor Market Discussion 00:39 - Analysis of Recent Payroll Data 02:00 - Part-Time vs Full-Time Job Creation Concerns 02:36 - Dissecting Part-Time Employment Reasons 04:20 - Labor Market Tightness and Part-Time Work 07:39 - Fed's Potential Rate Cuts and Economic Data 08:58 - Diverging Opinions Among Fed Members 09:42 - Upcoming CPI Data and Inflation Trends 10:43 - Super Core CPI and Housing Market Impact 12:12 - Political Implications of Fed Decisions 13:44 - Treasury Yields and S&P Outlook 15:10 - Gold as an Investment Option 17:42 - US Dollar and Currency Debasement 18:37 - S&P Vulnerability and Rate Hikes 19:16 - Equities and Treasury Yields Correlation 22:20 - Strategies for Equity Market Protection 25:06 - Upcoming Podcast Guest Announcement 25:56 - Closing Remarks and Subscription Information

In this episode of Super Macro Podcast 3, Elvis and Jonny dive into the topic of whether the Fed has lost the plot on inflation. They discuss the Fed's recent decisions, including leaving interest rates unchanged, raising inflation and growth forecasts, and the potential impact on the bond market. Jonny believes the Fed has been too soft on inflation, expressing concerns about the end of goods disinflation and the rise in services and energy costs. While he doesn't think the Fed has completely lost the plot, he questions the effectiveness of their current policy moves. 02:17 Fed's inflation target dilemma. 04:47 Powell's handling of inflation. 10:58 Wage growth predictions and indicators. 13:06 The Fed's ability to influence yields. 19:32 One or two good trades. 21:09 Industrial recovery and metal prices.

On this episode of Supermacro, Jonny and Elvis discuss the recent developments in the US market, including the CPI data and the non-farm payroll report. Despite the unexpected CPI print and mixed payroll data, Jonny maintains his view that the easing of financial conditions is stimulating the economy in ways the Fed may not have anticipated. The episode delves into the implications of Fed policy and the overall economic outlook. To access the SuperMacro newsletter and stay updated on economic analysis and trade recommendations, visit SuperMacro. Subscribe for a free trial and gain access to Johnny's expert insights and portfolio performance updates. Listen to the full podcast episode for in-depth analysis and valuable market insights. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more financial discussions and investment strategies.

In this episode of the SuperMacro podcast, Jonny discusses the health of the US consumer and the absence of a looming recession. He delves into charts showcasing the strength of the US economy, the impact of job gains, wage growth, and household finances. Elvis and Jonny also touch on the Federal Reserve's policies, inflation, and the future of interest rates. Join them as they analyze market trends, investment strategies, and more. Don't miss out on valuable insights and trade ideas shared in this engaging discussion. To access the SuperMacro newsletter and stay updated on economic analysis and trade recommendations, visit SuperMacro. Subscribe for a free trial and gain access to Johnny's expert insights and portfolio performance updates. Listen to the full podcast episode for in-depth analysis and valuable market insights. Don't forget to like, share, and subscribe for more financial discussions and investment strategies.