All eyes are on Trump's weeklong expedition in Asia, but we find deals sealed excluding the US equally important like warmer China-India ties. This episode, we also look at the Fed's expected rate cut, explain what's keeping listing activity muted in the Philippines, and reject the IMF's nasty warning about shadow banking.
As we celebrate a year of Sound Economies with Mel & Peter, we look back at the megatrends we saw in early 2025 and evaluate how these have developed. We also identify some wildcards, such as the swift rebalancing of trade and investment flows away from the US and a worsening middle-income squeeze that has triggered protests worldwide. Finally, we take a view of the road ahead and share the trends we expect to continue into 2026.
We are seeing a stock market correction with a steeper drop for tech and AI shares versus other industries. We recommend maintaining an overweight, well-considered risk position -- we explain how in this episode. We also tackle the Philippines' missed credit rating upgrade to A status and declining ratings for old economies, plus China's five-year economic plan.
The IMF is warning about a potential stock market correction following an AI-driven surge this year, but we think it shouldn't cause panic. In this episode, we also look at the opposite tales of premiership in Japan and France in the face of fiscal issues, and a plan to extend aid to US farmers losing out from tariff-related backlash.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:55 - Quick updates
02:41 - The latest on global markets
03:26 - Japan's first female prime minister
07:01 - France changes prime minister yet again
09:08 - The parallels between France and Germany: Lack of reforms
12:27 - US tariffs and the backlash on domestic farmers
16:54 - IMF warns of potential stock market correction correlated to AI bubble
24:15 - Our global outlook
What others see as a persistent dollar weakness, we attribute to emerging market currencies gaining momentum -- and we explain why. In this episode, we also talk about the ADB's tempered outlook towards Southeast Asia, China's week-long holiday spending spree, and weaker US private sector jobs data.
Time stamps:
00:00 - Start
00:54 - Quick updates
01:41 - The latest on global markets
02:43 - ADB's latest Southeast Asia economic outlook
08:26 - China's week-long holiday
14:06 - A weaker USD or stronger emerging market currencies?
19:00 - US' private sector job market slip and government shutdown
22:30 - Our global outlook
The US stock market is likely headed towards a correction soon. We think global investors should take this opportunity to review their portfolios as many remain underinvested in Asian assets. Our anniversary episode also looks at Thailand's new stimulus plans, Trump's hefty visa fee for migrant workers, and forecasts for UK inflation.
Time Stamps:
The US Fed has delivered its first rate cut for 2025 -- smaller than what we saw needed, but affirms our view that a tighter job market is now a bigger concern than inflation. We also look at lower credit scores for Americans, Mars' planned €1B investment in Europe as US sales are projected to ease, and China's tourism push to boost GDP growth.
This episode, we dive into the strong rally of China stocks, review the French government's collapse, and explain our expectations for a jumbo rate cut from the US Fed. We also discuss megatrends concerning Europe and Asia as well as envision how major economies will look like in 2035.
Political unrest has been pushing markets on edge globally. In this episode, we look at governance issues triggering protests in Indonesia and the Philippines, observe the changing of the guard in Thailand and France, and unpack warmer ties between India and China. We also assess lower US job hiring data and explain how it will shape the Fed's rate decision.
France is on the cusp of a political crisis as Prime Minister Francois Bayrou rushes to rein in public debt, and we discuss how this makes French assets less investable. Also, we look at Fed Chair Jerome Powell opening the door for a September rate cut, express concern over Indonesia's "patriot bonds", and take some pointers from the world's best performing sovereign fund.
Global assets are getting hot, and a mega rate cut from the US Fed will send prices even higher. In this episode, we discuss if our "overweight" risk rating is worth keeping. We also keep an eye out on protectionist rice trade affecting the Philippines and Vietnam, a public effort to boost Singapore stocks, and Powell's upcoming Jackson Hole speech this weekend.
It's time for change at the US Fed: we now see a 50bp rate cut by September in response to softer economic activity and a weaker job market. In this episode, we also discuss a global oil oversupply, the US' special tax on microchips sold in China, and a new Indonesia-Peru trade deal.
India is pressured to stop its purchases of Russian oil, but we do not see this triggering a surge in prices anytime soon. We also dive deeper into Q2 GDP numbers for Indonesia and the Philippines, review resilient startups across Asia, and explain why we are keeping our no-hike stance on the US Fed despite dismal jobs data.
This week, we challenge the ECB's view that the Eurozone is in a good place after a meagre 0.1 per cent GDP growth in the second quarter. We also look behind the scenes to explain rising yields for long-term bonds in US, Japan, and Germany; the IMF's less pessimistic view on the global economy; and China's sharp reversal of its long-standing one-child policy.
A heavily tariffed, more uncertain world will greet European investors as they return from the summer holiday. In this episode, we look at new trade deals with the US, with some countries given better rates than others. We also look at the recent rally in China stocks and the prospects of a US-EU deal.
This week, we explore why the Beijing Stock Exchange, now with 100+ IPO listing applicants in 2025, is gaining popularity among small tech firms raising funds. We also review China's Q2 GDP data & their unique approach to reduce youth unemployment, the plight of Nissan and Tesla in Asia, and see if a Fed governor's call for a rate cut holds water.
This episode, we compare the record-high listings at the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and the muted IPO activity at the London bourse, and offer some explanations for the wide disparity between the two. We also talk about a unique 'banquet ban' in China, the muted market reaction to Trump's latest tariff threats, and the sunshine that awaits investors beyond the summer holiday.
More Asian brands are boldly expanding in the US alongside record debt issuances across emerging markets in the first half of 2025. We think these are clear signs that investors are dumping US assets in search for better margins. In this episode, we also talk about the declining US dollar and the reduction of stock trading taxes in the Philippines.
There's a slowdown of listing activity in Asia Pacific for the first half of 2025 amid heightened market uncertainty, but we believe that IPO-ready companies should proceed with their plans. For this week's podcast episode, we also look at China requiring auto makers to use domestic microchips in their cars by 2027, US Fed chair Jerome Powell turning down prospects of a July rate cut, and the de-escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
The oil price spike over the past week was a knee-jerk reaction of the market to the escalation of attacks between Iran and Israel, but we think that most of it is speculative. We explain why we think the rising tensions will not be inflationary given an oil production surplus. We also talk about the Chinese stock market's lone decline, and adjustments to broaden Malaysia's tax base.
