Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Tyler Cowen, Holbert L. Harris Chair in Economics at George Mason University and Chairman of the Mercatus Center. See his website here.
He is also a prolific author, blogger and podcaster and co-founder with Alex Tabarrok of Marginal Revolution, the influential economics blog. Filippo and Tyler discuss Britain’s persistent slow growth, the uncertain impact of tariffs and policy volatility on investment, and the tension between strong corporate performance and weak labour-market data. Comparing the UK and the US, Tyler argues that regulation has clogged the market’s information system and sapped dynamism, while political risk-aversion has replaced the bold reforming spirit that once defined Britain. In the United States, he sees the same short-termism at work, compounded by fiscal addiction to low taxes and, following recent change in trade policy, tariff revenues, though he remains cautiously optimistic about the economy’s resilience and the revitalising potential of artificial intelligence.
Tyler also discusses one of his latest project, EconGOAT.ai—a free, AI-enabled book (GOAT: Who is the Greatest Economist of all Time and Why Does it Matter? Available here) that asks who might be the “greatest economist of all time.” Using a retrieval-augmented GPT model, readers can query the book itself or debate his shortlist of Smith, Mill, Malthus, Keynes, Hayek and Friedman. He praises Hayek’s The Use of Knowledge in Society as perhaps the finest single paper in economics and argues that Mill best bridges classical and modern liberalism. Browse the book for free to discover who is indeed the Economics GOAT. Looking ahead, Cowen foresees economics transformed by AI and machine learning, predicting a future where experimentation, simulation and teaching are conducted in partnership with intelligent systems. Yet he insists on grounding education in reading, writing and reasoning—“humans working with AI, not replaced by it.” In the closing part of the conversation, Filippo and Tyler also spend some time to remind listeners of the sixteenth-century School of Salamanca and the contribution to the Economics profession of the Neo Scholastics, whom he calls “pioneers of human rights and economics”.
Tyler Cowen is the Holbert L. Harris Chair of Economics at George Mason University and serves as chairman and faculty director of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University. With colleague Alex Tabarrok, Cowen is co-author of the popular economics blog Marginal Revolution and co-founder of the online educational platform Marginal Revolution University. A dedicated writer and communicator of economic ideas, Cowen is the author of several bestselling books and is widely published in academic journals and the popular media.
In 2022, Cowen and co-author Daniel Gross published the book ‘Talent: How to Identify Energizers, Creatives, and Winners Around the World’. He writes a column for The Free Press and was previously a columnist with Bloomberg View and the New York Times. His research has been published in the American Economic Review, the Journal of Political Economy, Ethics, and Philosophy and Public Affairs.
Cowen is the founder of Emergent Ventures, an incubator fellowship and grant program for social entrepreneurs with highly scalable ideas for meaningfully improving society.
Cowen graduated from George Mason University with a BS in economics and received his PhD in economics from Harvard University.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Federico Sturzenegger, Minister of Deregulation and State Transformation of the Argentine Republic under President Javier Milei, and Professor at the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires (UdeSA). See his bio here
In this conversation, Filippo and Federico discuss the Milei administration’s sweeping programme to shrink the state and restore market freedom. Drawing on two years of preparatory work that mapped every law in Argentina, Federico explains how his team built a “blueprint for revolution”: identifying which regulations to repeal, amend, or retain. Deregulation, he argues, is not simply administrative—it is moral and institutional, aimed at freeing citizens and firms from a bureaucracy that “imagines every risk but never counts the cost” of its own interventions. His ministry applies three tests for reform: a legal review, feedback from businesses and citizens, and price differentials as indicators of distortion. Early successes include application of “the chainsaw” - large cuts to state spending (a 5% of GDP reduction in government budget) and a 30 per cent reduction in the public workforce, combined with a drastic reduction in inflation and lifting twelve million Argentines above the poverty line.
Beyond fiscal repair, Mr Sturzenegger presents deregulation as a democratic act—challenging entrenched elites, rent-seekers, and intermediaries who long profited from Argentina’s welfare and regulatory state. He highlights reforms that have dismantled corrupt social-aid networks, channelled payments directly to citizens, and eliminated artificial barriers across sectors from energy to labour markets. Whilst Filippo probed Federico on the future of monetary policy and dollarization, what comes across is President Milei’s obsession with fiscal surplus and monetary discipline as the anchors of Argentina’s recovery. Looking ahead, he sees vast potential in the country’s energy and mining boom—if Argentina can consolidate property rights and sustain a lean, rules-based state. “Wonderful things happen when you let people be free,” he concludes, encapsulating both the philosophical and practical spirit of the country’s deregulation experiment.
Federico Sturzenegger is an economics graduate from the Universidad Nacional de La Plata (1987) and holds a PhD in Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) (1991). He currently serves as Argentina's Minister of Deregulation and State Reform. He is also Full Professor at the Universidad de San Andrés (UdeSA) and Adjunct Professor at Harvard University's School of Government (both currently on leave). He was a professor at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) and at the Universidad Torcuato Di Tella (UTDT). Previously, he was Chief Economist of YPF (1995-1998), Secretary of Economic Policy (2001), held the presidency of Banco Ciudad (2008- 2013), was a member of Chamber of Representatives (2013-2015) and chaired the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) between 2015 and 2018. He is the author of several books and articles on economics. For his 54 papers in refereed journals, he holds the 2nd highest academic impact according to the REPEC among economists residing in Argentina. The Konex Foundation has recognized him for his contributions to economic theory and the World Economic Forum (WEF) named him Young Global Leader.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, spoke with Ricardo Hausmann, founder and director of Harvard’s Growth Lab and Rafik Hariri Professor of the Practice of International Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School.
The conversation explored the origins of the Growth Lab, Hausmann’s influential work on economic complexity, and the policy implications for growth, resilience, and diversification. Ricardo describes the Growth Lab as the equivalent of a “teaching hospital” for economic development: governments are the patients, real-world policy challenges are the cases, and the aim is not only to treat but to generate frameworks, tools, and diagnostics for wider application. Among these are the Atlas of Economic Complexity, Metroverse for cities, and Greenplexity for energy transition pathways.
On growth, Ricardo stressed that it remains the hardest problem in economics: “health and education improve everywhere, but the thing we don’t know how to do is growth.” He argued that growth and inequality cannot be separated, since differences in productivity underpin differences in outcomes.
This led to a discussion of economic complexity, which Hausmann conceptualises as the accumulation and recombination of “letters of knowledge” into the “words” of production. Countries that diversify into more complex activities gain resilience and higher growth potential, while those with limited letters risk stagnation.
He pointed to India, Vietnam, China and South Korea as countries whose productive knowledge base suggests further rapid growth. By contrast, Venezuela serves as a cautionary tale of how complexity can be destroyed through toxic policies.
Turning to the US, Hausmann warned that tariffs and immigration restrictions could erode complexity by limiting the diffusion of knowledge and talent.
Asked by Filippo about policy priorities, Ricardo was sceptical of over-reliance on education alone: what matters is not how much the average person knows, but the diversity of know-how embedded in firms and institutions. Effective growth strategies require governments to provide industry-specific public goods, resolve coordination failures, and work with the appropriate “agents of change”—whether conglomerates, state-owned enterprises, or foreign acquisitions.
As he concluded, “there is no perfect suit, only a perfectly tailored suit”—the art of policy lies in tailoring strategies to context.
Ricardo Hausmann is the founder and director of the Growth Lab at Harvard University’s Center for International Development and the Rafik Hariri Professor of the Practice of International Political Economy at the Harvard Kennedy School.
He previously served as Venezuela’s Minister of Planning, a member of the Central Bank’s board, and Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank. His research has shaped the concept of economic complexity and its application through tools such as the Atlas of Economic Complexity. He has advised over 80 governments worldwide on development strategies, growth diagnostics, and diversification.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, interviewed David McWilliams, economist, author and broadcaster, who most recently wrote Money: A Story of Humanity.
In their wide-ranging conversation, David and Filippo explored the core ideas behind McWilliams’ latest book, Money: A Story of Humanity .
David explained that money is not just a medium of exchange but a “social technology”—a tool humans invented to solve the problems of complexity, scale, and cooperation as societies grew. Rather than focusing on gold standards or physical currency, he argues that money lives entirely in our imagination and is sustained by shared trust.
The real power of money, he told Filippo, lies in finance—the web of obligations and expectations we construct about the future, which allow us to borrow, speculate, and coordinate at scale. A mortgage, he noted, is essentially "selling a future version of yourself to the present".
The conversation turned to policy and crises, with McWilliams stressing that central banks don't truly control money creation—commercial banks do, by lending. He described financial crises as psychological events: collapses in collective trust rather than mechanical failures.
Filippo and David then discuss what might spark the next crisis, and warned that we’re already living in a fragile system—characterised by rising debt, speculative excess, and institutional mistrust; tariffs often signal a country’s loss of confidence, and with the return of Trump looming, global economic volatility may only intensify.
In the end, both Filippo and David agreed: money’s true meaning lies not in algebra or charts, but in the stories we believe and the behaviours we share.
David McWilliams is an economist, author, journalist, documentary-maker and broadcaster. He is Adjunct Professor of Global Economics at the School of Business Trinity College Dublin. He produces a weekly economics podcast which has repeatedly topped the Irish and English podcast charts.
David is co-founder of the world’s only economics and stand-up comedy festival Kilkenomics – described by the FT as “simply, the best economics conference in the world”. David has written six bestsellers, The Pope's Children , The Generation Game, Follow the Money, The Good Room, Renaissance Nation, and Money: A Story of Humanity, and one of these The Pope’s Children is the best selling nonfiction ever published in Ireland.
David was an economist in the International Relations Department of the Irish Central Bank; Chief European Economist at UBS, Europe’s largest bank; and Head of Emerging Markets Research at Banque Nationale de Paris.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at Alvarez and Marsal, SPE Councillor and host of the Econ Thoughts SPE Podcast, interviewed Johan Norberg , Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington D.C. and the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, and renowned author of Open: The Story Of Human Progress, and The Capitalist Manifesto; why the Global Free Market Will Save the World , for which he recently won the distinguished Hayek Book Prize.
In the conversation, Johan and Filippo discuss the cyclical nature of globalization, arguing that openness—through trade, migration, and exchange of ideas—has historically been central to human progress.
Johan explains that periods of retreat from openness, like the current wave of protectionism, often stem from a ‘primal’ fear response amplified by modern economic and social crises and the rise of social media. However, he warns that closing off economy and restricting trade, leads to stagnation, while openness fosters innovation and resilience.
Norberg and Filippo emphasize the importance of not only getting the right policies but also to develop and promote the appropriate narratives and leadership in shaping public understanding of trade policy, drawing parallels to past reforms under leaders like Thatcher and Reagan.
In the final part of the interview, Johan Norberg presents insights from his latest book Peak Human, which explores how thriving civilizations have always relied on dense populations, open trade, and intellectual freedom. He warns that demographic decline and ideological orthodoxy pose real risks, potentially isolating societies from the innovation they need.
The conversation also explores and connects these historical patterns to today’s challenges, including declining fertility and rising AI capabilities. Norberg concludes that embracing AI and staying open to global experimentation are essential to navigating potential decline—just as openness helped past civilizations sustain prosperity beyond their political or demographic peak.
Johan Norberg is an author, lecturer and documentary filmmaker, born in Sweden. He is a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington D.C. and the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels. He received his MA in the History of Ideas from the University of Stockholm.
He has written books on a broad range of topics, including global economics and popular science. His In Defence of Global Capitalism has been published in more than 25 countries. Progress: Ten Reasons to Look Forward to the Future, was called “a blast of good sense” by The Economist, and a “book of the year” in The Guardian, The Economist, and The Observer. Open: The Story Of Human Progress also became an Economist “book of the year”.
Norberg regularly hosts documentaries on development and economics for American public television, including Free or Equal?, Economic Freedom in Action, Power to the People and the The Real Adam Smith.
For his work, Norberg has received several awards, including the distinguished Sir Antony Fisher Memorial Award from the Atlas Foundation, the Walter Judd Freedom Award, the Julian Simon Memorial Award, and the gold medal from the German Hayek Stiftung, that year shared with Margaret Thatcher.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Scott Lincicome, vice president of general economics and Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies, and author of: Defending Globalization: Facts and Myths about the Global Economy and Its Fundamental Humanity.
In the interview, Scott and Filippo discuss recent trends in trade policy and comment on the ups and downs of tariffs announcements and the level of economic uncertainty they are bringing to the market.
Scott Lincicome offers a clear and principled defence of free trade while acknowledging the significant political and economic headwinds it currently faces. He traces the shift in U.S. trade policy from a relatively stable, rules-based system to a more erratic, unilateral tariff regime, especially under the renewed Trump administration.
He is critical of the resurgence of protectionism in U.S. politics— across both parties — as driven by flawed narratives that overstate the harms of trade while ignoring its widespread benefits. Scott emphasises that trade has not been the primary driver of job losses or inequality, and warns that industrial policy often devolves into inefficient rent-seeking.
In the discussion, Scott and Filippo highlight how the effective U.S. tariff rate has skyrocketed — from 2–3% under Obama to potentially 18–25% today — driven by sweeping executive actions often justified by questionable national emergency claims.
Scott warns of the resulting investment uncertainty, economic dislocation, and long-term damage to U.S. credibility, especially given the lack of Congressional oversight. While he sees the courts as a possible check, he’s sceptical that legal remedies will come quickly enough to prevent sustained disruption.
Looking forward, Scott suggests the U.S. might settle into a “new normal” of 10% average tariffs, with China facing higher rates but lower than the original rates suggested in early April, and Canada and Mexico’s position uncertain.
He casts doubt on the idea of a manufacturing renaissance, citing higher input costs, retaliation risks, and political instability as strong deterrents to sustained investment.
On the recent UK–US trade agreement, Scott is sceptical: it is “extremely modest” in economic terms and politically 'inflated'. At this stage he views it as more symbolic than substantive, though more details are to be expected. This is an extremely important and very timely conversation on one of the hot economic topics of the day.
Scott Lincicome is the vice president of general economics and Cato’s Herbert A. Stiefel Center for Trade Policy Studies. He writes on international and domestic economic issues, including international trade; subsidies and industrial policy; manufacturing and global supply chains; and economic dynamism. See his recent book: Defending Globalization: Facts and Myths about the Global Economy and Its Fundamental Humanity and article: https://www.cato.org/commentary/busting-manufacturing-jobs-myths.
Lincicome also is a senior visiting lecturer at Duke University Law School, where he has taught a course on international trade law, and he previously taught international trade policy as a visiting lecturer at Duke.
Prior to joining Cato, Lincicome spent two decades practicing international trade law at White & Case LLP, where he litigated national and multilateral trade disputes and advised multinational corporations on how to optimize their transactions and business practices consistent with global trade rules and national regulations.
He is routinely featured on TV, radio, and print media. Lincicome has a BA in political science from the University of Virginia and a JD from the university’s School of Law.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Jon Moynihan, business and venture capitalist and author of a two-volume book Return to Growth .
Filippo speaks with Jon about his recent book Return to Growth, where he explores the decline of economic dynamism in the UK and other Western nations, identifying three major obstacles—termed the “three devils”: excessive government spending, high taxation, and overregulation. He argues that these devils stifle entrepreneurialism and inhibit the flow of capital necessary for growth. In his second book, Moynihan contrasts this with the “three angels,” or solutions: free markets, free trade and sound money. He emphasizes that genuine economic growth emerges not from government direction but from the initiative of private entrepreneurs operating in a free market. Drawing on history, he highlights how innovation and prosperity flourished in periods of minimal regulation and targeted investment. The conversation also touches on political challenges, such as the resurgence of protectionism and tariffs, particularly in the US. Jon warns that misguided economic nationalism could repeat the mistakes of the 1930s. Despite political headwinds, he remains cautiously optimistic, citing some growing interest in more free market ideas across party lines. In the final part of the interview Filippo and Jon focus on what is needed going forward: Jon stresses that rekindling economic growth requires a clear moral and practical case, alongside bold leadership and a renewed public understanding of how free markets drive prosperity.
Jon Moynihan is a businessman and venture capitalist who started his career advising companies and banks in the Netherlands, the US and the UK as a specialist in mergers and turnarounds. He then ran the global firm PA Consulting Group for twenty-one years. He subsequently transitioned into venture startups, creating over twenty companies to date, most of them in the science and technology fields. Jon has worked as a volunteer in the charity sector all his life, including in Bangladeshi refugee camps and other developing countries; in educational think tanks, both managing and fundraising for charities; and in the arts sector, where among other activities he was president of the Royal Albert Hall for a number of years. Jon sits in the House of Lords as Baron Moynihan of Chelsea.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Philippe Aghion, Professor at the College de France, INSEAD and at the London School of Economics, and author of the book 'The Power of Creative Destruction: Economic Upheaval and the Wealth of Nations' .
In this engaging interview, Filippo and Philippe delve into the crucial role of innovation in driving long-term economic growth, with a focus on Europe’s position in the global innovation landscape. Aghion, drawing from his Schumpeterian framework of creative destruction, emphasizes that growth stems from successive waves of innovation, where entrepreneurs are motivated by temporary monopoly rents but face eventual displacement by newer technologies. He warns against both monopolistic stagnation and overregulation, both of which can stifle innovation. A key theme is the distinction between catch-up and frontier innovation. Aghion argues that Europe has largely remained stuck in mid-tech incrementalism and needs to evolve into a frontier innovator like the U.S. To achieve this, reforms are essential: creating a unified internal market, expanding venture capital, strengthening basic research funding, and establishing institutions akin to the U.S.'s DARPA. The future of the European economy, he suggests, hinges on embracing innovation-friendly policies as outlined in recent reports by Mario Draghi and others. Aghion critiques rising protectionism and stresses that Europe’s best response to global economic shifts, including U.S. tariffs, is to double down on innovation rather than resort to retaliation.
Innovation is crucial to productivity, which is key for growth, which in turn leads to prosperity - this interview thus touches on the core of our profession.
Professor Philippe Aghion is a Professor at the College de France, INSEAD and at the London School of Economics, and an Associate of the Centre for Economic Performance. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. His research focuses on the economics of growth. With Peter Howitt, he pioneered the so-called Schumpeterian Growth paradigm which was subsequently used to analyse the design of growth policies and the role of the state in the growth process. Much of this work is summarized in their joint book Endogenous Growth Theory (MIT Press, 1998) and The Economics of Growth (MIT Press, 2009), in his book with Rachel Griffith on Competition and Growth (MIT Press, 2006), and in his survey “What Do We Learn from Schumpeterian Growth Theory” (joint with U. Akcigit and P. Howitt.) In 2001, Philippe Aghion received the Yrjo Jahnsson Award of the best European economist under age 45, in 2009 he received the John Von Neumann Award, and in March 2020 he shared the BBVA “Frontier of Knowledge Award” with Peter Howitt for “developing an economic growth theory based on the innovation that emerges from the process of creative destruction.” For more info see: https://www.philippeaghion.com/
Material World: A Substantial Story of Our Past and Future
By Ed Conway, 2024, Penguin Books, 512 pages, ISBN 9780753559178
Reviewer: Arno Hantzsche
In our daily lives, how often do we contemplate the materials that the world around us is made of: gadgets, buildings, infrastructure? As economists, how much attention do we pay to raw materials and their extraction? The answer is often very little – too little – as we take for granted the material underpinnings in our services dominated economy.
In the book ‘Material World’, Ed Conway sets out to tackle our ignorance. Through the lens of six fundamental substances – sand, salt, iron, copper, crude oil and lithium – Conway highlights the complexity of current mining and production networks. He takes a journalistic approach in doing so which makes ‘Material World’ a fantastically rich collection of extremely interesting stories and illuminating anecdotes. The reader is taken back far in history when meteors struck the desert compressing sand into glass, to vast mines and salt lakes that, over millennia, collected precious materials, islands on which bird droppings turned to valuable fertiliser, and into hyper clean micro chip factories.
Some key lessons stand out. While small relative to global economic output and often out of people’s mind, contemporary mining and processing of key raw materials is unbelievably large - both in absolute terms and compared to what humankind has dug out of the ground throughout history until very recently. This, amongst other things, comes with considerable environmental and human rights impacts. Most of the products and infrastructure that define modern society depend on materials changing shape through highly complex global supply chains. Key intermediate inputs are often produced by only a small number of super specialised manufacturers worldwide. This system requires there to be as few frictions to trade as possible.
Two main questions are implied but remain open. I discuss them with the author in the podcast.
First, what can we do as economists to better understand supply networks, in particular risks that emanate from the links in supply chains breaking?
The second question relates to economic policy. In a world with increasing trade frictions alongside political and economic powers rolling back globalisation, how can policymakers manage our reliance on the material world?
‘Material World’ provides food for thought on numerous issues around raw material extraction, production networks, globalisation, and net zero. It is a gripping and worthwhile read.
Arno Hantzsche
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Russel Napier, author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and most recently author of 'The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998: Birth of the Age of Debt'.
Filippo and Russell discuss the current state of the international monetary system and whether it is fit for purpose - does it work for the two major world economies, the USA and China? It probably doesn't in Professor Napier's view and therefore we should expect changes to come - though the timing is uncertain. The currency and monetary imbalances will continue to put stress on the system and there is limited chance for an international coordination 'accord' to fix it. The current policies - including tariff policies - we see today are a reflection of those imbalances and the way policy makers are reacting to them.
Russell and Filippo also review the current trends in Europe - both towards integration, for example in defence policy, but also towards devolution, in the fiscal and monetary realm, and how those two forces may interact in the next few years.
The Letta and Draghi report, as well as Macron's April 2024 speech, loom large in the background: Russell suggests the policies presented in the Draghi report are more likely than not to materialise in some way and therefore there is a positive story for a number of sectors and for investments in 'tangible' assets, which could bring benefits to blue-collar workers in Europe. We even see some bright spots for the UK.
Finally, the conversation covers a very important point: the need for better knowledge and an accurate understanding of financial and economic history, an effort Professor Napier is taking forward through his charitable work with the Library of Mistakes. Please see www.libraryofmistakes.com/ for more information.
Professor Russell Napier is author of The Solid Ground investment report for institutional investors and co-founder of the investment research portal ERIC- a business he now co-owns with D.C. Thomson. Russell has worked in the investment business for over 30 years and has been advising global institutional investors on asset allocation since 1995. Russell is author of the book Anatomy of The Bear: Lessons From Wall Street’s Four Great Bottoms (‘a cult classic’ according to the FT) and is founder and course director of The Practical History of Financial Markets at The Edinburgh Business School. His second book – The Asian Financial Crisis 1995-1998: Birth of the Age of Debt– was published in July 2021.
In 2014 Russell founded the charitable venture The Library of Mistakes, a business and financial history library in Edinburgh that now has branches in India and Switzerland.
Russell has degrees in law from Queen’s University Belfast and Magdalene College Cambridge. He is a Fellow of The CFA Society of the UK and is an Honorary Professor at The University of Stirling and a Visiting Professor at Heriot-Watt University.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Edward Chancellor a financial historian, journalist and author most recently of The Price of Time.
In the interview, Filippo and Edward discuss the history of the concept of 'interest rates' and how it has evolved over time, from Mesopotamian time until the 20th century when it became the subject of much study and began to be used as a tool of economic policy in earnest. By looking at the story of interest we also necessarily look at the story of financial economics and economic thought itself. Interest rates are to a certain extent the equivalent over time of what prices are in the current market system: information and a means of communication.
The conversation then turns to explaining the clash of thoughts between Hayek and Keynes and their view of interest rates and how they can be used in policymaking - and potentially overused as it has been the case by most central banks over the past 50 years; Edward outlines the thesis of his recent book, on how excessively low interest rates have created imbalances in the global economy in recent times.
Edward and Filippo end with thoughts on the current economic environment and the interaction between current policies in the US, the AI revolution and interest rates. Listen in for a centuries-spanning conversation.
Edward Chancellor is a financial historian, journalist and investment strategist. Edward read history at Trinity College, Cambridge, where he graduated with first-class honours, and later gained an M.Phil. in Enlightenment history from Oxford University.
In the early 1990s he worked for the London merchant bank, Lazard Brothers. He was later an editor at the financial commentary site, Breakingviews. From 2008 to 2014, Edward was a senior member of the asset allocation team at GMO, the Boston-based investment firm.
He is currently a columnist for Reuters Breakingviews and an occasional contributor to the Wall Street Journal, MoneyWeek, the New York Review of Books and Financial Times.
In 2008, Edward received the George Polk Award for financial reporting for his article “Ponzi Nation” in Institutional Investor magazine.
Edward Chancellor is the author of Devil Take the Hindmost: A History of Financial Speculation (Farrar Straus/Macmillan, 1999), a New York Times Notable Book of the Year. Devil Take the Hindmost has been translated into more than half a dozen languages. In 2005, he published the report, Crunch-Time for Credit? (Harriman House), an analysis of the ongoing credit boom in the US and UK. His latest book, The Price of Time, has been longlisted for the FT 2022 Business Book of the Year and was awarded the 2023 Hayek Prize
To follow
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, interviewed Greg Mankiw, Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University and author of popular Economics textbooks.
In the interview, Filippo and Greg review and discuss the current status of the business cycle, looking back at the inflation surge of 2021 and 2022, what caused it [mostly down to fiscal policy and overheated demand], the central bank reaction to it [quite late to act], and the success of managing inflation expectations.
Greg also surveys current policies under the Trump administration from tariffs to tax cuts and deregulation; and the political unwillingness of addressing the deficit and debt situation. Filippo and Greg debate if and when markets will start to worry seriously about the US debt and the possible consequences - there is no timeline but only the feeling that when it happens it will be fast and possibly unexpected.
Finally, Greg casts a ray of hope on the future of the economic profession highlighting the changes in the topics and the methods currently in favour of a younger generation of economists.
N. Gregory Mankiw is the Robert M. Beren Professor of Economics at Harvard University.
Professor Mankiw is a prolific writer and a regular participant in academic and policy debates. His research includes work on price adjustment, consumer behaviour, financial markets, monetary and fiscal policy, and economic growth. His published articles have appeared in academic journals, such as the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, and Quarterly Journal of Economics, and in more widely accessible forums, such as The New York Times, The Washington Post, and The Wall Street Journal. He has written two popular textbooks—the intermediate-level textbook Macroeconomics (Worth Publishers) and the introductory textbook Principles of Economics (Cengage Learning). Principles of Economics has sold over two million copies and has been translated into twenty languages.
In addition to his teaching, research, and writing, Professor Mankiw has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research, an adviser to the Congressional Budget Office and the Federal Reserve Banks of Boston and New York, and a member of the ETS test development committee for the advanced placement exam in economics.
From 2003 to 2005 he served as Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisers.
Filippo Gaddo, Managing Director at A&M and SPE Councillor, discussed with Amity Shlaes, Chair of the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation and bestseller author, current trends in the US and Global economy and how it relates to historical precedents, in particular the the 'Roaring' 1920s and the Great Depression in 1930s.
In the interview, Filippo and Amity explore the key themes of two of Amity's books and their relevance for understanding today's economy and international trends: The Forgotten Man and Coolidge. In the Forgotten Man, Amity looked at who really is the 'Forgotten Man': contrary to common notion - popularised by President Roosvelt in 1930s - it is not simply the people of the 'bottom of the economic pyramid', but is it the person who is disadvantaged by the actions of well-meaning but ultimately misguided interventionist policies aimed at improving the situation of certain members of society. It is a concept that focuses on the wider implications and unintended consequences of policies and looks at who ultimately 'pays' for programs of redistribution and industrial support for example. In the conversation, Amity then contrasts such activist policy with the policies introduced by Coolidge and the results he achieved in the 1920s. Coolidge was an effective President who is often overlooked and misunderstood, particularly outside the US. One hundred years later after his election, Filippo and Amity quickly review the current state of the US economy and assess how much of the dominant economic 'narratives' of today, including the one of the current Trump administration, can be said to align with the principles that were successful during the Coolidge presidency. Despite all the noise and uncertainty, Amity finds some positive signs - listen in to discover them.
Miss Shlaes chairs the board of the Calvin Coolidge Presidential Foundation, a national foundation based at the birthplace of President Coolidge. The Foundation’s goal is to share Coolidge with Americans, by hosting debate and events at the Coolidge site and through newer media. Miss Shlaes is winner of the Hayek Prize and currently serves on the jury for the prize, sponsored by the Manhattan Institute. She has twice been a finalist for the Loeb Prize in commentary. In 2002 she was co-winner of the Frederic Bastiat Prize, an international prize for writing on political economy, and later chaired the jury for that prize. Amity Shlaes is the author of six books including numerous New York Times bestsellers: Germany: The Empire Within, The Greedy Hand: Why Taxes Drive Americans Crazy, The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression, Coolidge, The Forgotten Man/Graphic, and The Great Society: A New History . She was a syndicated columnist for ten years, first at the Financial Times, then Bloomberg. Before that, she served as an editorial board member of The Wall Street Journal. Over the decades she has published in periodicals including The New Republic, The New Yorker, the Spectator of London, The New York Times, The Washington Post, and National Review.
Filippo Gaddo, SPE Councillor, discussed demographic trends and changes in population structure with Lyman Stone, Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the Institute for Family Studies, and Clara Piano, Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Mississippi.
In the conversation, Lyman and Clara outlined the output of their recent paper, "The Fertility Gap and Economic Freedom", where they measured the difference between desired Fertility [how many children a couple would want] and achieved Fertility [how many children they actually have] – i.e. the Fertility Gap.
In their research they examined trends in fertility but also what may be driving the Gap – from marriage to economic and monetary incentives and to cultural and religious factors. The discussion also covers fertility trends in different countries and examples of policies that have been tried to slow down the decline or reverse it, including housing and urban development.
Finally, Filippo, Clara and Lyman look at possible consequences of a rapidly falling population in terms of impact on economic growth, dynamism, innovation and the capability to sustain the future welfare state and government debt.
It is a fascinating conversation about a topic which is mentioned often but not analysed in depth and that will dramatically affect our society.
Lyman Stone is the Director of Research at the population consulting firm Demographic Intelligence, the Director of the Pronatalism Initiative at the United States-based Institute for Family Studies, a senior fellow at the Canadian research organization Cardus, and a PhD candidate at McGill University.
Clara Piano is a Visiting Assistant Professor of Economics at the University of Mississippi and her primary research areas are family economics, law and economics, and public choice.
Filippo Gaddo, SPE Councillor, held a discussion with Agathe Demarais, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Demarais is the author of “Backfire”, a book on the global ripple effects of sanctions and export controls and is a regular columnist for Foreign Policy and a frequent commentator for the media.
Geopolitics has risen to prominence in the news for a while and it is now influencing the way we look at international economics. Filippo and Agathe discuss what 'Geo-economics' is and what are the geopolitical trends that will affect the global economy in 2025 and beyond.
Agathe outline three pillars to understand Geoeconomics: the landscape - what are the big geopolitical trends around ‘fragmentation’ and the intersection of geopolitics and the macroeconomy; the strategy – what are the policies and the strategies implemented by countries to manage their relationship; and finally, the tools of economic statecraft, sanctions, tariffs, export controls. In particular – building on the work outlined in her book ‘Backfire’ – Agathe looks at the success or failure of previous episodes when sanctions and export controls where used and what we can learn from them.
The conversation also touches on the politics of the recently installed Trump administration and how Europe could and should respond to it. As Agathe mentioned, Geoeconomics will remain a buzzword throughout the year and so it is great to bring a framework to interpret it to the SPE audience.
Agathe Demarais is a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her areas of interest include the global economy, geopolitics, and sanctions. She heads ECFR’s geoeconomics initiative and co-leads ECFR’s Re-Order project, exploring emerging visions of the global order, as well as the interplay between economic might and geopolitical influence.
Before joining ECFR, Demarais was the global forecasting director of the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), the research arm of The Economist. She led the EIU’s global economic and geopolitical analysis, with a particular focus on trade developments, emerging markets, and economic statecraft. Her essays have appeared in The Economist, The Times, Foreign Affairs, Politico, Le Grand Continent, the Journal of Democracy, and World Politics Review. Demarais holds master’s degrees from Sciences Po Paris and Columbia University, where she was a Fulbright scholar.
Filippo Gaddo, SPE Councillor, held a discussion with Gauti Eggertsson, Professor of Economics at Brown University Economics Department and a recognised international finance and macroeconomics author - most recently he presented a paper on the inflation surge of 2020s at the August Jackson Hole Fed conference. See paper here
In the opening interview of 2025, Filippo and Gauti reflect on the 'inflation surge' of early 2020s and its causes, dynamics and potential resolution. In particular, Gauti outlines his theory of a 'Slanted-L Phillips Curve' - whereby when the vacancy to employment ratio goes above a certain ratio [the Beveridge threshold] then the Phillips curve become very steep or almost vertical and any small movement in labour market can cause a large increase/decrease in inflation - which is what we saw when Covid provided first a supply shock and than, through government response, a demand shock to the system. Whilst the reading of the causes of the inflation surge may be different from that of other previous guests on the podcast, Gauti agrees that the government response in 2021 was probably too much and too late, and the reaction of monetary authorities was potentially slow.
The discussion also highlights the role of inflation expectations and how they interacted with the labour market in moderating and reducing inflation in 2023 and 2024. Filippo and Gauti finally share some thoughts on the incoming Trump administration and what we may expect in terms of impact from trade, tariffs and fiscal policies - and Greenland also gets a mention!
A great conversation to start the new year.
Gauti B. Eggertsson is a macroeconomist and a Professor of Economics at Brown University Economics Department. He received his Ph.D. in Economics from Princeton University in 2004, after having completed his B.S. in economics from the University of Iceland.
He has worked at Research Departments of the International Monetary Fund and the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Since graduation he has also been visiting faculty at Princeton, Yale, and Columbia where he taught international finance and macroeconomics at both graduate and undergraduate level.
Eggertsson has published in a variety of professional journals such as the American Economic Review, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Review: Insights, Brookings Papers on Economics Activity, Economic Journal, Journal of Monetary Economics, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Dynamics and the Quarterly Journal of Economics.
The main focus of his work is the analysis of monetary and fiscal policy over the business cycle, both from a modern and historical perspective.
Filippo Gaddo, SPE Councillor, held a discussion with Adam Posen, President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics and former Bank of England's MPC member. Adam is a regular contributor to leading news and policy publications, including the Financial Times, Foreign Affairs, New York Times, Wall Street Journal, Washington Post, and Harvard Business Review and you can follow his writing on the PIIE website https://www.piie.com/experts/senior-research-staff/adam-s-posen or on X at https://x.com/adamposen.
In this final interview for 2024, Filippo and Adam delve deep into the very topical debate of trade policy and tariffs and the wider implications of US economic policy of the incoming Trump administration. Adam starts with an overview of the current status of 'globalisation', highlighting the benefits that trade and globalisation itself have brought to the US and other developed nations' economies over the past thirty years and dispelling some of the more common myths about the perceived downsides. Filippo and Adam also go through the more traditional arguments put forward in favour of tariffs or industrial policies - national security, protection of manufacturing base, jobs losses avoidance, supply chains security for example - and the validity [if any] of such arguments. Adam then looks to the future and lays out a possible scenario for the 2025 US tariffs landscape - one that could affect Mexico and Canada very early on as much as China and Europe, with a mix of threats, offers, exemptions and even a possible renegotiation of existing deals such as USMCA. Adam cautions us all to take Trump's positions and pronouncements very seriously.
The conversation then ends on monetary policy where Adam's view is somewhat outside the broader consensus: because of Trump's potential inflationary policies the Fed may cut much less early in 2025 than expected and even end up raising rates later in the year. Only time will tell, but we do have something to look forward to - an economic rollercoaster of a year. A wonderful and rich discussion that sets us up well for the Christmas break and the new year.
Adam Posen is President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics since 2013 and over his career, he has contributed to research and public policy regarding monetary and fiscal policies in the G-20, the challenges of European integration since the adoption of the euro, China-US economic relations, and developing new approaches to financial recovery and stability.
He was one of the first economists to seriously address the political foundations of central bank independence and to analyze Japan's Great Recession as a failure of macroeconomic policy.
While at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York during 1994–97, he co authored 'Inflation Targeting: Lessons from the International Experience' with Ben Bernanke, Thomas Laubach, and Frederic Mishkin. Adam has been the recipient of major grants and research fellowships from the American Academy in Berlin, the Brookings Institution, the Bank of England, the European Commission, the Ford Foundation, the Sloan Foundation, and the US National Science Foundation. In November 2018, he gave the inaugural Adam Smith Distinguished Lecture at the University of Glasgow. In January 2019, he was named a CEPR Distinguished Fellow. He served seven terms as a member of the Panel of Economic Advisers to the U.S. Congressional Budget Office from 2005 to 2019.
Posen received his BA and PhD from Harvard University.
Filippo Gaddo, SPE Councillor, held a discussion with Tera Allas, Director of Research and Economics at McKinsey where she leads research on the macroeconomic outlook, growth, and productivity. Tera is also very active on social media and can be found frequently posting data and analysis at: https://www.linkedin.com/in/teraallas/
Tera starts the conversation describing her career outlining the differences - and similarities - of working in the public and private sector. Filippo and Tera then quickly pivot to the issue of productivity and the current status of the UK economy. It seems that both Tera and Filippo can't get 'productivity out of their heads' - it is indeed the most important factor that determines the future of a country's economic growth. In the discussion comparisons are drawn between the UK and the US and what may be behind the gap between the two countries: attitude to risk, level of investment, regulation all come back as key contributors. The topic of AI is also covered and in the end Tear and Filippo are somewhat optimistic about the future of productivity though with a lot of caution and pointing to potential pitfalls to avoid. It is a very data driven, rich conversation that both macro- and micro-economists will enjoy!
Tera is Director of Research and Economics in McKinsey’s United Kingdom and Ireland office. She leads McKinsey’s research on the macroeconomic outlook, growth, and productivity, bringing together deep expertise and more than three decades of experience in strategy, corporate finance, economics, and public policy. Tera serves as the chair of Pro Bono Economics and The Productivity Institute’s Advisory Committee, as a trustee of the Productivity Leadership Group (Be the Business), and as a governor of the National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
Tera holds an Honorary Professorship at the Alliance Manchester Business School and is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and a Fellow of the Royal Society for the Encouragement of Arts, Manufactures and Commerce. Tera was previously on the board of Innovate UK, the United Kingdom’s national innovation agency. From 2004 to 2014, she worked as chief economist in the UK’s energy, transport and business departments and as deputy head of the UK Government Economic Service.
Tera was appointed Commander of the Order of the British Empire (CBE) for services to economic policy in the New Year Honours list 2019.
