Laurent and Gerard have an explosive conversation with Bryan Long, Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group.
They explore why U.S. energy market signals are failing to support new capacity investments, despite soaring demand (especially from datacenters).  Key issues include misaligned pricing, liquidity constraints, and hedging challenges, all of which deter long-term private capital.

Key Takeaways: Current price signals don’t support investment in new generation, even as large load growth (e.g., datacenters) is accelerating. Market structures must evolve to better reflect long-term price signals and attract private capital. Supply-side issues: New natural gas peakers and battery storage (BESS) face fragmented development, rising CAPEX, procurement delays, and tariff risks. Industry response: Major consolidation in the IPP space—private equity-backed assets are being acquired by integrated players seeking scale for hyperscaler deals.
Possible solutions may include Repricing of forward curves, Government-backed long-term contracts, Regulatory reforms, Technological advancements Bottom line: Something must shift—be it policy, pricing, or tech—to align investment incentives with future demand growth. The next several years should be great for traders in the middle of the action.

Conclusion: Between the Large Load Growth and the Investment Capital, who will blink first?   
------------  
Bryan Long is an Executive Director in JPMorgan’s Commodities Group, focused on wholesale power & renewable energy transactions. With 20yrs+ experience across various U.S. Power trading, origination and management roles, he has deep understandings of electricity market structures.    

We are in the middle of a battery boom, for EVs and even more for BESS. What's really happening in the electric vehicle (EV) market? Is China dominating the field, or are serious alternatives emerging? What roles are Europe, the U.S., and other global regions playing? Which chemistries are winning out, and how are prices trending?  

These are the questions we ask ourselves every day — and today, Gerard and Laurent are thrilled to have someone who can help us answer them. Laurent and Gerard are joined by the brilliant Iola Hughes, Head of Research at Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, following its acquisition of Rho Motion.  

Iola leads research across the battery demand spectrum — from EVs to stationary storage — managing forecasts, tracking battery chemistries, and analyzing the impact of everything from regulation to OEM strategies and technology roadmaps.   According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence and Rho Motion, as of 2025:

• The Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESS) sector is growing at 40% year-over-year
• The EV market is expanding by 25% year-over-year

 But perhaps the most surprising trend is that forecasts made just 18 months ago are being exceeded — in nearly every region except the United States. There, the current administration appears to be kneecapped the industry by rolling back both incentives (like tax credits) and regulations (such as CAFE and emissions standards). Nissan in the US is moving back from EVs to hybrids while GM passes billions of impairments.  

On the industrial side, it’s increasingly a case of China versus the world. China now has the capacity to manufacture a staggering 50 million vehicles per year, far outpacing domestic demand and sparking concerns about overcapacity.  

In summary: we are witnessing a growing divide in the global battery and EV space. China is clearly in the lead. Europe and others are racing to catch up. And the U.S.? It’s at risk of falling further behind — not for lack of potential, but because of political and policy choices.

https://www.benchmarkminerals.com/  
https://www.linkedin.com/in/iolahughes/  
https://x.com/RhoMoIola  

Stunning visuals from FT on the development of batteries (most of the sources came from Benchmark)  
https://ig.ft.com/mega-batteries

For our 200th episode, we had the pleasure and privilege of speaking with Nat Bullard, one of the sharpest minds in the energy world. A leading analyst in climate and energy, Nat is known for his clear insights on clean energy, decarbonization, and the global energy transition. Formerly Chief Content Officer at BloombergNEF, he is now also a co-founder of the AI company Halcyon.  

Nat is perhaps best known for his annual 200-slide deck, a rich compilation of global data and charts that paints a clear, fact-based picture of where the energy sector is heading.  

Our conversation spans major shifts shaping the future: the electrification of the Global South, the rise of AI and datacenters, the unravelling of ESG, and the evolving geopolitics of energy through the lens of "Electrostates vs. Petrostates"—and how investment flows are responding.  

We also explore the dominant narratives in the energy space, many of which, we agree, are self-serving and unhelpful.  

Ultimately, the energy transition is being held back less by technology and more by entrenched interests and a lack of curiosity. But the world is changing fast—and there is reason for hope.   We thank AFRY for supporting the show.  

Reference for reports quoted during the show

The Electrotech Revolution – Ember and Kingsmill Bond   https://ember-energy.org/latest-insights/the-electrotech-revolution/  

Afry: Market and regulatory overview of the North Atlantic Transmission One -Link project https://afry.com/en/exploring-nato-l-project-and-transatlantic-power-exchange-decarbonised-future   
"AFRY provides engineering, design, digital and advisory services to accelerate the transition towards a sustainable society. At AFRY, we are 19,000 devoted experts in industry, energy and infrastructure sectors, creating impact for generations to come. Best example of AFRY expertise is the report they just released on the Regulatory and Revenue Models for the North Atlantic Transmission One – Link."   

The oil and gas industry is clinging to the narrative that we're entering a "Golden Age of Gas" — especially when it comes to LNG. Riding this assumption, companies have been pouring in investments at an aggressive pace, with plans to double LNG export capacity by the end of the decade.

US LNG FIDs are breaking all records in 2025, with 55 mtpa of liquefaction capacity sanctioned since the start of the year. This is the second-best year for global LNG FIDs (Final Investment Decision), second only to 2019, when over 70 mtpa of FIDs .The latest example is the 14bnUSD FID for Sempra’s Port Arthur 2 in Texas in September 2025, mostly financed by large funds Blackstone, KKR, Apollo, Goldman Sachs.

Currently, LNG exports make up about 16% of U.S. gas consumption. Projections suggest that figure could rise to 30% by 2030. But two major uncertainties loom large:
Demand: Will international markets absorb this flood of LNG? China's pivot toward Russian and Central Asian pipelines, Qatar’s own ramp-up in production, and Europe’s push to reduce reliance on expensive imported gas all cast doubt on future demand.
Supply: Will the U.S. have enough cheap gas to meet this export surge — especially as the AI boom is expected to drive up domestic gas use, while the federal government places increasing restrictions on renewable energy development?

To unpack these critical questions, we’ve invited Justin Mikulka to explore what he calls the “LNG Mirage.” He’ll walk us through hard-hitting facts and trends that investors are currently overlooking. At events like CERAWeek and Gastech, the fossil fuel industry often seems to talk only to itself — echoing reassurances while ignoring warning signs. But winter is coming.

About the Speaker:
Justin Mikulka has spent the past decade investigating and reporting on the energy sector, with a particular focus on the shifting economics between fossil fuels and emerging clean technologies. He publishes regular insights at Powering the Planet and currently serves as the Communications Director at Oilfield Witness, a U.S.-based nonprofit that uses optical gas imaging to document methane emissions from the oil and gas industry.

Reports in reference: Global Gas Flaring Tracker Report from World Bank https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/bd2432bbb0e514986f382f61b14b2608-0400072025/original/Global-Gas-Flaring-Tracker-Report-July-2025.pdf    

We thank Abloco Energy for supporting the show. www.abloco.energy

----
Epilog post recording:
"Venture Global shares plunged more than 20% on Friday following its loss in an arbitration case against BP, which accused the US liquefied natural gas producer of breaching contracts to profit from higher prices at the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.The case was one of several pursued by Venture Global’s customers alleging it failed to deliver shipments under long-term supply contracts and instead sold them for higher prices on the spot market when gas prices soared in early 2022.BP’s victory is a major blow to one of the largest US LNG exporters, which now faces a separate hearing to determine damages in the case. The UK oil group is seeking damages in excess of $1bn, as well as interest, costs and attorneys’ fees."

Germany is experiencing a battery blitz. The market is expected to triple from 2GW to 6GW in less than two years. To give a bit of context, Zach Williams from Modo Energy, gives us the big picture and fundamentals of the German battery market.  

Legacy developers have not yet been able to catch that wave, but newcomers have. We bring on one those new pioneers, Philipp Man, CEO of Terralayr.  

In less than three years, Philipp has managed to set up a company which operates or currently builds 150MW of batteries in Germany; more importantly he has managed to sign some of the first tolling agreements with heavyweights such as Vattenfall and RWE. His approach combines medium size batteries (10-30MW) rather than gigantic ones.  

The Vattenfall-Terralayr deal is a pioneering seven-year, 55 MW multi-asset capacity tolling agreement for a decentralized fleet of battery energy storage systems (BESS) across Germany, announced in May 2025. Described as an industry-first "virtual battery tolling structure," it marks a significant shift from traditional single-asset tolling models, enabling scalable and flexible energy storage solutions without significant capital investment from Vattenfall.  

With Philipp, we dissect his lightspeed approach in a seemingly bureaucratic environment, we analyse how he has been to put assets on the ground so fast, and his approach to commercialisation of flexibility combining hard assets and a digital layer.  

We discuss the price formation of tolling agreements, the “tranching” of capacity and how he sees the future. Is Terralayr a tech company? Is it an infrastructure play? Well, a bit of both.

With Gerard away, Laurent invited another Irishman, Killian Daly, to dive into a technical—but critically important—topic: carbon accounting, power procurement, the GHG Protocol (v3), and the push for 24/7 green energy.

For as long as we can remember, companies have tried to boost their green credentials—high rewards if successful, limited consequences if they fall short. To curb exaggerated claims, standards like the GHG Protocol emerged.

Laurent was part of the original task force that developed the first version of the GHG Protocol. He recalls the pivotal moment that led to the creation of Scope 2: an infamous visit to the Tomago aluminium smelter in Australia back in 2000. 

Fast forward two decades, and Killian Daly—now leading the forward-thinking organization EnergyTag—is driving efforts to embed 24/7 carbon accounting into the upcoming revision of Scope 2 of the GHG Protocol.

It’s a crucial battle—for transparency, integrity, digital innovation, and sound economics. Opposing us are certain (not all) Big Tech companies, whose actual emissions far exceed their green marketing, and fossil fuel lobbyists doing their best to delay progress.

But we are making progress—and we need your help. Join the fight. Reach out to Killian Daly at EnergyTag to see how you can get involved.
https://energytag.org/

And don’t miss a major event: Green Energy Procurement – 10th October in London, hosted with Renewabl, S&P Global, and Shoosmiths. Last year the event was 250% oversubscribed. This year’s venue is bigger—but spots are going fast.

Secure your place now:
https://www.renewabl.com/post/join-us-for-renewabl-day-2025-inside-the-ppa-market  

Aviation and marine transport together account for approximately 15% of global oil consumption—a substantial share driven by sectors that are among the hardest to decarbonize. Unlike road transport or power generation, these industries face unique constraints: the high energy density required, long operating ranges, and the limitations of onboard storage mean that electrification or hydrogen solutions remain technologically and economically unfeasible in the near to medium term.

In response, policymakers and industry leaders are increasingly focusing on low-carbon liquid fuels as transitional solutions. Chief among these are Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), both of which can be used in existing infrastructure and engines with minimal modification. These fuels can be of biological origin—typically derived from waste oils, agricultural residues, or purpose-grown feedstocks—or synthetic origin, such as Power-to-Liquid (PtL) fuels produced via electrolysis and CO₂ capture.

Globally, significant efforts are underway to scale up these alternatives. The European Union, for instance, has introduced blending mandates through the ReFuelEU Aviation and FuelEU Maritime regulations, requiring a gradual increase in the share of SAF or other renewable fuels used in transport. These policies are supported by a range of subsidies, research programs, and emissions trading mechanisms (e.g., EU ETS inclusion for aviation and shipping), all designed to stimulate supply and demand for cleaner fuels.

To help unpack the complex interplay of technical, economic, and regulatory challenges, we invited Callum McPherson, Chair of its Sustainable Business Forum and Head of Commodities at Investec, a London-based investment bank. With a mandate to structure and trade a wide array of fuels, Callum provides real-world insight into how these markets are evolving—and the limitations that remain.

Some of the key topics Laurent and Gerard explored with Callum included: Which green fuels have realistic pathways to scale, and which are unlikely to work due to poor energy return on investment, unsustainable feedstocks, or prohibitively high costs? How will regional mandates, particularly those in the EU, impact global markets—and will they be enforceable in practice? What role will synthetic fuels play, given their dependence on clean electricity, high capital costs, and still-immature supply chains?

What emerges is a highly nuanced picture. Despite the political momentum and technological progress, the fundamental economics remain challenging. Current estimates suggest that the cost of abating one tonne of CO₂ in these sectors can easily exceed €1,000 requiring considerable public support, whether stick or carrot.

High costs and regulatory uncertainties are probably some of the reasons why Shell has decided not to complete the construction of a SAF refinery in Rotterdam.

Laurent and Gerard conclude that while green fuels are a necessary part of the decarbonization toolkit, they are far from a silver bullet. The financial and ecological trade-offs are significant, and at current cost trajectories, these fuels will make only a marginal dent in overall emissions curves—at least in the near term.  

Finally, an excellent book on the general topic of biofuels by Michael Grunwald:  "We Are Eating the Earth: The Race to Fix Our Food System and Save Our Climate."

“The views and opinions expressed by Callum Macpherson are his own and are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice, recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any financial products or commodities. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the...