Every once in a while, you hear talk of how much worse off you’d be if you’d missed the ten best days in a given period. It usually happens during a rough patch, in the hope it’ll calm investors down and ensure they stay the course rather than panicking and selling at precisely the wrong time. The numbers are always compelling, and it's admirable advice. However, there's one important point that is often missed.

Since 1900, US shares have returned 9.8 per cent per annum (including dividends). That’s a recipe for wealth generation and an excellent way to ensure your capital grows more than inflation (which has been just below three per cent per annum over that period). But here's the thing, the market rarely delivers an annual return anywhere near that long-term average. It’s usually some way above or below that!

With the midpoint of the year upon us, it’s been a mixed bag (and at times, a rollercoaster) for investors. Somewhat ominously, it feels like 2025 is just getting started. We’re at a crucial crossroads and there’s no shortage of key events looming in the months ahead.

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will remain a focal point as investors watch for signs of further escalation. Central banks will also be in the spotlight, with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled to testify to Congress, following last week's Fed decision. The economic highlights this week will be flash PMIs for June, which are out on Monday and will provide an important pulse check of the global growth picture.

There have been increasing concerns over “stagflation” risks in recent months, as economic indicators weaken and tariffs threaten to push inflation back up. The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran - as well as its impact on oil prices - has added further risk to the outlook. What can we learn from periods like the 1970s, and is the threat of stagflation something investors should be worried about?

Looking ahead, events in the Middle East will be a focal point, as investors watch for any further escalation between Israel and Iran. The G7 Leader's Summit takes place in Canada early in the week, ahead of the NATO summit next week. It's also a very big week for central banks, with monetary policy decisions due in the US, UK and Japan. None are expected to adjust policy rates, although the tone and commentary will be important. There's plenty to watch in the coming days here in New Zealand, and the key release will be the March quarter GDP report on Thursday. Markets expect another steady print, and a result above Reserve Bank estimates could ensure the OCR remains on hold at the next meeting.

Analyst reports can be very helpful when gathering information and trying to learn about a company. However, investors should take a more holistic view when choosing which shares to include in (or leave out of) their portfolio, rather than relying heavily on the recommendations and target prices they might see in such reports.

Turning to the week ahead, the key economic release will be the May CPI report in the US, which is due overnight on Wednesday. Here in New Zealand, a steady stream of releases are due over the week including March quarter manufacturing figures, migration, and potentially a fresh housing report from the Real Estate Institute.

The latest UBS Global Family Office Report offers some fascinating insights into how the world's wealthiest families think about risk, time and opportunity. However, it's where they put their money that interests me most. At a very high level, the average asset allocation isn’t too dissimilar from that of a managed fund (in the growth category) or an individual investor with a comparable risk profile. There are some key differences though, with the most obvious being the 33 per cent allocation wealthy family offices have to alternative assets.

The last ten days or so have been very eventful. President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on the European Union before delaying it by five weeks, then the US Court of International Trade ruled that many of the tariffs are illegal anyway. That saw the Court of Appeal grant a temporary stay that leaves them in place while the case is considered, and Trump ended the by doubling the tariffs on steel imports! The S&P 500 still managed a healthy 1.9% gain despite all that, and it ended the month of up 6.2%, the strongest monthly gain since November 2023.

We’ve seen a big change in the perception of US assets in recent months, which has been reflected in falling growth expectations, a more volatile sharemarket and higher US interest rates. However, currency markets are where all these things intersect and the most telling signs might have come from the US dollar. What's next for the world's biggest economy, and how should investors play this?

This week will be an extremely busy one, both internationally as well as here in New Zealand. The latest Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision will be the main event locally, and while another cut to the Official Cash Rate is widely expected, markets will be interested in any clues about how many more cuts we'll see from here on.

After being down 18.9 per cent from its recent peak, the S&P 500 index in the US has recovered and is now back in positive territory year-to-date. Interestingly, drawdowns of that magnitude aren't nearly as rare as you might think, and nor are the rebounds. Volatility is the rule, rather than the exception. Get used to it.

It was a strong week global sharemarkets, with a 90-day trade truce between the US and China setting the positive tone early on. The S&P 500 in the US surged 5.3%, which saw it storm back into positive territory for the year and finish just 3.0% below its record high from February (having been down 18.9% from those levels at one point!). What do investors need to keep an eye out for next?

After two days of discussions over the weekend, the US and China agreed to a 90-day tariff truce. This was a bigger announcement than markets were expecting, and it substantially diminishes the risk of a full-blown trade war. What does this mean for the outlook, investors and the balance of the year?

This week we'll be watching economic indicators for signs of any impact from the tariff announcements in early April, with US inflation and retail sales of particular interest. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is speaking on Thursday inWashington, D.C. and markets will be monitoring the outcome of trade talks between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China's Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland.

There has been increasing talk of a US recession in recent weeks, with one major global bank suggesting the odds of this are 60 per cent. It’s certainly possible if harsh tariffs remain in place, although the outlook could brighten quickly if we see a de-escalation. Which stocks will hold up best in a recession, and what can we learn from previous downturns?

A lot of people are frustrated with US President Donald Trump, but there’s one who has a more genuine case than most. That’s Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, and not just because Trump wants to fire him!

It's a big week for economic data releases in the US, with the jobs report due on Friday, the ISM manufacturing index and core PCE inflation report ahead of that, as well as the preliminary GDP reading for the March quarter. Here in New Zealand, we’ll be watching the latest monthly ANZ Business Outlook survey for any signs of nervousness about the global trade situation, as well as inflation indicators. It’ll be a very busy week for global earnings releases, with 180 S&P 500 companies due to report. This will include four of the “Magnificent 7” with Meta and Microsoft reporting on Wednesday, and Amazon and Apple to follow on Thursday. We'll also hear from Coca-Cola, Visa, Caterpillar, CVS Health and Eli Lilly.

It’s been a very volatile few weeks for investors, and some markets and asset classes have fallen heavily amidst the uncertainty. All declines are different and it's impossible to say when or where this one ends. However, here are a few suggestions for navigating this one.