European editor Eric Culp and FX macro trader Beat Nussbaumer explain why the ECB's October 30 decision could be the most important non-event of the week. While markets expect a hold, could Lagarde drop an unexpected bombshell that shifts the euro landscape?
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Three major central bank decisions in one week rarely happen by coincidence, and the market implications could be massive. Get Sam Cutler's unfiltered take on which meeting matters most and why this week's outcomes could set the tone for the next quarter.
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Early bank earnings reveal that regional lenders are taking decent credit losses as auto and credit card delinquencies spike again, with Chris discussing how the stress is hitting smaller banks hardest while bulge bracket institutions remain relatively insulated from the brewing credit storm.
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JPMorgan's CEO warns of a 30% recession probability while his own bank crushes estimates and tech earnings surge past 20%. With the government shutdown obscuring critical data and China tensions spiking the VIX to four-month highs, Christine dissects the contradictions driving Q3's most volatile earnings season.
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France has earned the brutal title of “the new sick man of Europe,” with five prime ministers in just over a year — matching Italy’s worst instability records. Commenting on the turmoil, Jamie Dutta notes that with sovereign debt reviews from Moody’s and S&P looming and fresh elections essentially a coin toss by year-end, France’s political paralysis risks spilling over into broader European markets. Even Germany’s fiscal optimism, he adds, is fading fast.
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With NFP missing and traders flying blind, markets are abandoning long-term narratives for profit-taking on Swiss Franc and Gold winners. Beat Nussbaumer reveals how the data vacuum is forcing a complete recalibration of Fed expectations and trading strategies.
Beat Nussbaumer of https://macrobeat.co.uk
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Markets price a 69% chance of government shutdown disrupting fiscal support and delaying crucial NFP data. With the Fed caught between persistent 2.8% core inflation and a labor market sending conflicting signals, could a shutdown force Powell's hand?
Sam Cutler warns that the Fed may be entering “uncharted waters.” He argues that without reliable NFP data, policymakers risk either overreacting to noise or moving too cautiously while inflation pressure lingers.Â
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The S&P 500 is tracking toward its best September since 2010, defying one of the market's strongest seasonal patterns. When historical trends break this dramatically, smart money pays attention. Guest Mike Zaccardi discusses what's powering this unprecedented September surge.
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New QCEW data reveal payrolls were overstated by 911,000 jobs, and the revisions keep getting worse each month. Could the Fed be staring at four consecutive months of negative job growth without realizing it?
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Market analysts warn of an unprecedented three-way FOMC split as committee members push for everything from 50bp cuts to no action at all. Michael and Ryan break down why this internal discord could be more market-moving than the rate decision itself.
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Long-end yields are surging globally as markets judge the fiscal mess across the US, UK, Japan and Europe. Littlestone warns we still haven't paid the piper for 2008 and COVID borrowing - and the reckoning is building.
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The Fed's quiet revolution prioritizing employment over inflation has set the stage for a September rate cut, but political interference threatens the entire framework. With UK gilt yields hitting 1998 levels and French spreads widening, Harry and Beat Nussbaumer navigate a world where 'stagflation cocktails' meet government meddling. Uncover the trading strategies that work when politics trumps economics.
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Despite mounting evidence that inflation isn't going anywhere, the Fed just signaled September cuts - and Sam Cutler isn't buying it. From Walmart's rising tariff costs to manipulated unemployment data, uncover why this dovish pivot could backfire spectacularly.
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After 30 years in markets, veteran trader Sylvain Asimus reveals why the emotional roller coaster destroys more trading accounts than any technical indicator. Discover the neuroscience behind why stress triggers ancient fight or flight responses that sabotage modern market performance.
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Guest Sam Cutler discusses why markets hit near record highs despite looming EU tariffs of 15-30% by August 7th, as Trump's negotiation tactics make moderate tariffs feel like wins. His "art of the deal" approach started with triple-digit threats, making 15% look reasonable to both markets and trading partners. But division among EU members could complicate the response strategy.
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With CPI data that could derail any September cut hopes and the specter of the transitory mistake still haunting the Fed, Powell faces an impossible balancing act. Find out why the FOMC might stay frozen through October, even as markets desperately want relief.
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Guest Guenter Grimm joins to discuss why the 15% tariff template from Japan could be the eurozone's best-case scenario, but what if Trump delivers something worse? With 20% tariffs marking 'bad deal' territory and 30% spelling disaster, the ECB's September cut plans hang in the balance. The noise-to-information ratio from Washington has never been higher—and neither have the stakes.
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Christine Short reveals why Q2 S&P 500 earnings growth expectations dropped from 9% to 5%, marking the lowest in six quarters. Discover why banks are setting the tone for earnings season and how IPO resurgence with companies like Circle up 500% signals broader market confidence.
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Beat Nussbaumer examines why Trump's new 35% Canadian tariff and August 1st deadline triggered "very muted" market reactions despite aggressive trade measures. Learn why the dollar's downtrend has "got a little bit stuck" and why traders are shifting from preemptive to reactive strategies.
Beat Nussbaumer of https://macrobeat.co.uk
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Sam Cutler reveals why May's employment beat is heavily distorted by government jobs with 73,000 government hires masking cyclical job weakness. Learn why the debt ceiling resolution requires $600 billion in new Treasury issuance and why markets face potential weakness around August 20th.
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