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In Moscow's Shadows
Mark Galeotti
241 episodes
6 days ago
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You...
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News Commentary
History,
News,
Government
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All content for In Moscow's Shadows is the property of Mark Galeotti and is served directly from their servers with no modification, redirects, or rehosting. The podcast is not affiliated with or endorsed by Podjoint in any way.
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You...
Show more...
News Commentary
History,
News,
Government
Episodes (20/241)
In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 221: Is the Sun Rising over Russo-Japanese Relations?
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You...
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6 days ago
39 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 220: Power Politics in the FSB and a new 'Most Dangerous Man in Russia'?
Time to look at the spooks again. It seems that the FSB's Military Counterintelligence Department (in other words, the anti-coup squad) may be getting a new head. What does this mean for the internal struggles to replace the ailing current director, Bortnikov? Is 'crown prince' Sergei Korolev finally going to take his place? And what might this mean? My previous look at Korolev was in In Moscow's Shadows 171: The invisible and invidious Sergei Korolev, perhaps the next head of the FSB (20 Oct...
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2 weeks ago
44 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 219: Decoding Putin in Valdai
Putin's 4-hour keynote and Q&A at Valdai gives us at least some insight into his thinking and his assumptions, but the interesting thing is that the key themes are strangely also reflected in the thinking of some of his fiercest critics, as everyone oversimplifies a complex world. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. ...
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3 weeks ago
49 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 218: Putin, the Blunderer-in-Chief?
We spend a great deal of time thinking about Putin's intentions, his strategy. Yet it's hard to argue that this position, mired in Ukraine, sanctioned and facing recession, is where he wanted to be. Maybe, then, a better way of trying to analyse his regime and Late Putinism's prospects is through his blunders... The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and...
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1 month ago
58 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 217: MiGs in Estonian skies, exercises on Poland's borders - a threat to Europe?
MiGs in Estonian airspace, military exercises in Belarus, talk of the next war against NATO being prepared. Are we under threat? Well, maybe that’s up to us. I look at recent events, and Carlo Masala's new book 'If Russia Wins' to wonder if the West risks encouraging Russian pressure and undermining its own position. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affair...
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1 month ago
52 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 216: What Security Guarantees for Ukraine Might Work?
Zelensky said on Friday that "the basic document on security guarantees for Ukraine, and therefore for the whole of our Europe, is practically ready." I suspect this may be a stretch, but it is worth considering what might and might not work. Crucially, any guarantees must be credible, meaningful and sustainable, if they are to reassure Kyiv and deter Moscow. As I mention, the revised and updated version of my book We Need To Talk About Putin is published in the UK by Penguin on 13 ...
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1 month ago
47 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 215: A Tale of Two Coups
The 1991 August Coup and the 1993 October Coup are oddities, at once still very current in Russia, yet also veiled in myth and self-deception. Why? I'll argue is that together, they inadvertently paved the way for Putin. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the...
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1 month ago
48 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 214: Law and Lawlessness in Late Putinism (or, Late Brezhnevism redux)
The FSB is trumpeting its arrests of Ukrainian saboteurs and demanding more surveillance powers. Prosecutor General Krasnov is set to become the chair of the Supreme Court. Figures have been released showing that corruption cases rose 16% in the first half of the year. Put together, how do these highlight the hollowing out of Russia, the convergence of late Putinism and late Brezhnevism? Information about forthcoming book events are here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conduct...
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2 months ago
45 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 213: Foreign Agents in Russia, Foreigners in Ukraine...
After a brief comment on the frozen peace process, I look at the case of Sergei Markov, voluble Kremlin loyalist, who has just been declared a Foreign Agents. What's going on - he seems to have been caught by Russia's escalating feud with Azerbaijan - and what does this say about the decay of late Putinism? In the second half, I consider three recent books and what they say about how we discuss and think about the war in Ukraine. They are: Colin Freeman, The Mad and the Brave. The Untold Stor...
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2 months ago
50 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 212: War and Peace and Alaska
Alaska was owned by Russia - was the summit also? Where is the world after the Alaska summit? Putin won, but did Trump really lose (I'd suggest not really, because his interests are not that opposed)? And if - if - we are any closer to a peace, what might that look like? Tickets for the Waterstones book event I mentioned in London on 4 September are available here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises i...
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2 months ago
46 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 211: Trump, Putin, Alaska...
So Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska on Friday. Are we on the brink of peace in Ukraine or another mess? I wish I could be more optimistic. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You can also follow my blog, In Moscow's Shadows, and become one of the podcast's supporting Patrons and gain question-asking rights and access to e...
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2 months ago
46 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 210: Is Russia Being Sentenced To The Digital Gulag?
With calls for WhatsApp to be banned and searching for 'extremist' material punishable by fines, there is much talk of a 'North Koreanisation' of Russia, of a 'digital gulag.' After a first half looking at developments in Ukraine, the war and international perceptions of threat, I dive into this issue. There are some interesting parallels with Soviet times, with different generations having different ideas about quite what to do with the online world. More details on my forthcoming new book H...
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3 months ago
44 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 209: Eagle, Dragon, Bear - how the Ukraine war drives Moscow into Beijing's orbit
In the first half, I offer a (rather pessimistic) assessment of not just Trump's 50-day ultimatum but also recent EU and UK sanctions, before pivoting to explore how the US president has inadvertently made it clear that it is not him but China's Xi Jinping who has more influence with Putin. What is the nature of the Sino-Russian relationship, and where is it going? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises i...
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3 months ago
52 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 208: 5 Million Downloads and Counting! A Q&A Compilation
In Moscow's Shadows has crossed the 5 million downloads barrier! This happens to coincide with this being an episode in which I tackle Patrons' questions on everything from why Russians fight and Chinese legal and criminal influence in the Russian Far East through to who would play whom in the film 'Death of Putin', and my own impartiality. Enjoy! The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, ...
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3 months ago
56 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 207: What Is Going On Between Baku and Moscow?
In one corner, Azerbaijan's Ilhan Aliev, in the other, Russia's Vladimir Putin, two autocrats locked in an increasingly acrimonious political conflict sparked by, of all things, the arrest of some gangsters in Ekaterinburg. But it's bigger than that, and I locate the conflict in the context of Russia's receding role as regional hegemon, the politics of personalised authoritarianisms, and the agency and agendas of low-level political actors. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Condu...
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3 months ago
45 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 206: Corruption, Putinism's Achilles' Heel
After some thoughts about the recent NATO summit in The Hague, I focus on the perennial challenge of corruption. Even Russian officials are admitting it is again on the rise, and becoming more predatory, While there is a regular litany of middle-ranking officials charged and sentenced, there is no political will to tackle grand corruption at the top of the system -- and declining capacity to combat its resurgence at the bottom. What does all this mean for the system? The podcast's corporate p...
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4 months ago
56 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 205: The Peace Crisis that faces Russia after the Ukraine War
There is a range of serious practical problems that an end to the war in Ukraine -- whenever that may be -- will pose for the Kremlin. However, if the Soviet war in Afghanistan is any comparison, arguably every bit as important will be the narratives, how people frame the war and use it to attack or defend Putin's regime. I feel this is a political challenge they are not well suited to master. My report Trouble at home: Russia's looming demobilization challenge can be downloaded from the Glob...
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4 months ago
59 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 204: The Opportunity and the Threat, Moscow and Iran, Moscow and the West
In the first half, I explore what the eruption of open conflict between Israel and Iran means for Russia. Will Putin be tempted to throw Iran under the bus? He certainly has much more scope and reason to do so than in 2022-24. In the second half, I climb onto my soapbox to consider -- criticise -- some recent rhetoric about the Russian threat and bemoan the lack of dialogue, especially military-to-military contacts, with praise for the wargame Littoral Commander: the Baltics (Dietz Foundation...
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4 months ago
56 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 203: Can Putin Afford To End The War?
A pervasive argument is that for reasons personal, political or economic, Putin simply cannot afford to end his war: that he needs the excuse for tyranny, or that his economy would stagnate. I dig into these and other claims, and - spoiler alert - conclude that Putin could certainly afford to end the war... but that there are enough challenges to peace that he may not dare to. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis...
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4 months ago
57 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
In Moscow's Shadows 202: What Is This Resilience Thing Anyway?
An IMS on a Thursday? Although I'm still not quite yet over the cold that stopped me recording on Sunday, as I can't record next Sunday, needs must... In the first part, I look at recent development around Ukraine. Then, in the second, I look at the recent 'electoral wargame' held by Conducttr and spin off that more broadly to consider the challenges of 'resiliency' in a political sense (rather than infrastructure, etc) Robert Hall's book is here. The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor i...
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5 months ago
57 minutes

In Moscow's Shadows
The new Japanese PM wants to conclude a long-delayed peace treaty with Russia - but that will mean selling a thorny territorial dispute. Will Moscow show the cunning and vision to try and undermine Japanese support for Ukraine -- indeed, can it, while keeping China and North Korea happy? The podcast's corporate partner and sponsor is Conducttr, which provides software for innovative and immersive crisis exercises in hybrid warfare, counter-terrorism, civil affairs and similar situations. You...