The CPI came in at 5.4%, and that is inflationary. The US Treasury bonds are decreasing in interest rates, and that is deflationary. The market is at an all time peak, and if it cracks, it is deflationary. What is going on? How can we have inflation (and we all feel that inflation at the stores we shop in) and deflation at the same time? Well today its inflation, and tomorrow (sometime) it will be deflation. But when? No one can tell you.
Where did the term "TINA" come from? And, how is it being used today in the financial markets? The bond market is rising - so what does this very significant move mean? How is President Putin upsetting the French today - and why is the EU toothless in protecting the French?
In the strong US economy, there exist a few cracks and worries. MMT is one of them as money printing does not create wealth, nor does it drive the economy. No one is talking about Credit Default Swaps, but what if? Buffett makes it clear that the US Government and FED are allowing leveraged speculation, but didn't previously. Why?
The 7 rules to follow when picking growth stocks in the markets by the founder of Investor Business Daily, the best financial newspaper on the planet. What lessons can we learn from the history of margin debt in the markets? What rumors are going around the FED today about a rate rise sooner than the Chairman stated?
The FEDs are now thinking about raising interest rates in 2023, rather than 2024. And, they think that inflation may average out at 3.4%, and not 2/0%. That is amazing and confusing and real.
The CPI came in at 5.0% for May, but this didn't push the markets as one would predict. The US Housing Market has a new buying organization pushing prices up. A banker's banker is predicting inflation, followed by deflation, followed by BIG inflation.
There is a revolution coming to the Bullion Banks who control the price of gold today. It is called the Basel III Agreement. This is only positive for the price of gold in the future. Some top economists think a great deflationary depression is heading our way, and I explain their thinking - so you can decide for yourself. Isreal has a new government - so what changes are coming?
Why is the FED still pumping money into the US economy when the GDP (the whole economy) has recovered from Covid? Why is the FED holding interest rates down - both FED Funds rate and mortgage rates? IS Europe moving right? Why did foreigners see $1% worth of US Treasuries last year, and what does that mean for the future?
The French are in a bit of turmoil as their election next year approaches - and this is explained. Gold was the best market this last week, and it is showing. The FED has the back of the stock market - right? What happens if you are wrong? The National debt can swamp the US economy permanently - see why. When is a good time to sell gold? This is explained.
Both the CPI and wages are going up, and going up strongly. I think inflation is not only in our future, but is here today. Why are we having a shooting war in Gaza right now, and what is China thinking about Taiwan? We now have a RED indicator as one of our six precursors to a market crash - and it is CPI (Consumer Price Index).
Shrinking? How can that be? Ask the millennial who are postponing their child production years. Europe is getting ready for elections and everything is up for sale - Scotland nearly missed another independence election call. Will N Ireland follow Scotland? France is up for grabs in next year's election. Spain has just opened up, and everyone is partying.
The markets basically went sideways last week, and politics ruled the world. In France, the French military warned the French government to get their act together and solve the problems of the country (or else!!!) China is explained as the most dangerous country in the world today, and why.
The US 10 Year Treasury is at a critical technical position right now and will either rebound (higher interest rate), or fall to lower interest rates. The former is probable. The US Dollar fell against most currencies about 1% and represents a major move this last week. Will the US Dollar continue falling now that it has tested recent high values? Transitory Inflation is discussed in depth - so the influence of future inflation is more fully understandable.
The CPI came in greater than anyone expected. This week I explore the meaning of inflation to stocks and bonds. I look at the definition of inflation, and try to bet a good gut understanding of inflation - so you can make sense of it in the future. A hypothetical example of the company, DolarTree, is used to show the effect inflation can have on a company. (How about you personally?) The FED's mindset abut inflation is explained - and questioned.
The war drums are beating in Ukraine. Will Russia or China take advantage of the turmoil in the world? How much electricity is Bitcoin costing the world today - and every day? What lessons can we learn from the Archegos disaster - and how was this allowed to happen? Could it have taken down the banking system?
Happy Easter. It was a sideways market most places last week. The US economy is strong and getting stronger as the economy opens up. Many technologies will change the face of the world and fortunes will be made in them.
Several housing tidbits were covered in the US housing market this week. A large cargo ship has blocked the Suez Canal - so what? What shares should you buy, and do you know how to analyze them? How much debt is too much debt? How much is the current US administration planning on spending - and is it more than the total wwII debt?
Crises are upon us around the world - hyperinflation in Lebanon, nuclear warhead count in the UK, pandemic numbers in Europe, and (not the least) FED predictions of the future. I give a lesson in "compound interest." Warren Buffett gives his wisdom about the markets today and the poor state of retirees. Ray Dalio gives his concern about the $75T US debt market.
A big change in the mortgage market will affect the mortgage rate second home and vacation home rates. How does the gold market work - here is my own ideas after decades of observations. Does the FED use bad data to determine inflation? Is better data available, but won't be used due to human frailties? What does the ever increasing 10 Year Treasury rate mean for you?
A unique perspective of the influence of the 10 Year Treasury Bond yield on ALL other markets is presented. The market action for the week was reviewed. Many interesting tidbits in the economic news were reviewed including the massive outflow of Euros from Germany caused by negative interest rates. FIVE broken system used within the US economic system were highlighted. And the 6 precursors to a stock market crash were reviewed.
