Inspired by Eli Kasargod-Staub's description of the Jenga Tower Economy in his recent Substack, Keith and Ethan discuss the growing brittleness of different elements of our economy, and how the AI bubble popping would make these weaknesses hit hard.
Keith and Ethan unpack the volatile state of cryptocurrency: Is it finally going mainstream, or are we witnessing the setup for the next financial crisis? Maybe both. Tune in for a candid, nuanced take on what recent developments might mean for the future of money.
Keith and Ethan get philosophical about saving and spending, understanding that without getting it right there is no money to invest.
One reason market valuations are so high is optimism about the transofrmative power of AI -- but the tide seems to be turning. From ChatGPT's recent stumbles to theoretical limitations for LLMs in general, what does the deterioration in prospects for AI mean for stocks?
The Buffet Indicator: https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-cap-to-gdp-the-buffett-indicator/
Keith and Ethan discuss the US government's declining ability to understand what is happening with the economy as a result of the firing of the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They also discuss whether an entire generation has been trained to "buy the dip" -- and what the implications for investors might be.
With increased inflation just over the horizon, Keith and Ethan discuss and rate the growing number of drivers of price increases.
With Ethan on break, Keith does a special video episode to take a look at economic data, finding that Trump's decisions have barely registered yet in several key economic indicators. But a quick review of pandemic era inflation data suggests it could take up to a year to really see policy impacts in the data.
Some useful links:
With the US formally entering the war in Iran, there is yet one more reason to feel the world is on fire. How do we think about markets and war -- and the specter of nuclear proliferation?
With market enthusiasm for AI contributing to the recent run up in stocks, Keith and Ethan question whether investors have become irrationally exuberant, with a bubble in the making.
It's clear that consumer debt -- mortgages, credit cards, student loans, and car loans -- is rising. But are consumer debts approaching levels that could tip the US into recession? Or are consumers in ok shape, historically speaking? Keith and Ethan argue both sides to tease apart what's really going on.
The ongoing uncertainty in Trump's tariff policies create a confusing landscape for investors and consumers wondering where things will land. Keith and Ethan discuss the possibilities and discuss whether the market's resiliency has everything to do with Wall Street's TACO beliefs.
With the US in clear economic decline during Trump's second term, should we be rethinking traditional recommendations and increasing our investments overseas? What does history tell us about market performance -- has the US always outperformed, or is there a cyclical pattern to watch for?
With growing inflation and a falling dollar strong possibilities, Keith and Ethan discuss the opportunities and challenges of investing in foreign markets and companies, including the important possibility that the US technology and startup ecosystem may overcome all the Trump downsides and continue to thrive.
After weeks of stock market gains and a 90 day tariff agreement with China, Keith and Ethan confront the possibility that maybe this time isn't actually that different.
But as they talk through continued tariff uncertainty, the economic effects of the destruction of the country's publicly funded medical research apparatus and more, the red flags mount. By the the end of this episode, at least one of the co-hosts makes the hard choice to exit US index funds for the time being.
Keith and Ethan update Nassim Taleb's 2007 metaphor on market risk and discuss the challenge of pursuing incremental market gains without exposing oneself to the risk of catastrophic losses. They discuss their own humbling examples of getting it wrong, and how investing well requires accounting for your own fallibility. A brief examination of Japan's 35-year stock market nightmare provides fodder for what a really bad scenario could look like.
Keith and Ethan react to the disastrous tariff rollout, explore how investors should think about Trump's self-own for the ages, and debate the political consequences ahead.
Trump's foreign policy choices and tariffs are alienating countries around the world -- but does this matter if you are investing in the US? Keith and Ethan discuss the nature of the problem, and debate whether we should be more worried about the short or long term.
Keith and Ethan discuss the history of FDIC insurance, whether we can still count on it, and options for the worried.
Keith and Ethan discuss the conventional wisdom on stock investing, the history of US markets in troubled times, and the usefulness of historical examples of rising undemocratic regimes, all while debating what they should do with their 401ks and IRAs.
