Cheap Talk discusses the new Netflix movie, A House of Dynamite; time constraints in nuclear crises; realistic depictions of communication issues; getting the right people on the phone; whether missile defense will save us; the security dilemma plays a starring role; the implausibility of the unattributed nuclear missile scenario; damage limitation and the pressure to respond quickly; and Marcus’ socials are blowing up

Ceasefires are good; Trump’s personal stake in Middle East diplomacy; the implausibility of the AI apocalypse; the incremental ceding of human control over autonomous systems; plausible mechanisms for AI control of nuclear arsenals; misalignment, poisoning, and the manipulation of AI models; and Marcus discusses the meaning of consciousness

Francis Fukuyama joins Cheap Talk to discuss the rise of authoritarianism; Europe’s security environment; the risk of AI catastrophe; signs of hope for democratic resilience; and Marcus has a lot of respect for centenarians Francis Fukuyama is the Olivier Nomellini Senior Fellow at Stanford University's Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies (FSI). He has written widely on issues in development and international politics. His books include The End of History and the Last Man (1992), The Origins of Political Order (2011), Political Order and Political Decay (2014), Identity: The Demand for Dignity and the Politics of Resentment (2018), and Liberalism and Its Discontents (2022).

What, if anything, the government shutdown means for international politics; the US and its weakened capacity to conduct foreign policy; non-great-power nomenclature; defining power in the international system; how middle powers can achieve their goals in international relations; shifts in great power foreign policy toward smaller states; and Marcus has seen the error of his ways

Small signs of hope for arms control between the United States and Russia; a review of the last ten years of US-Russia policy; explaining Trump’s about-face on Ukraine; an airing of grievances at the UN; and Marcus can’t wait for Thanksgiving

Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace; questions about Russia’s intent; the risk of escalation; deterrence failure in protecting NATO airspace; preference differences within the alliance; a deal for TikTok; China’s interest in global governance and a multipolar world; and Marcus has a step-by-step plan for China’s world domination

Why Trump thought there might be a deal with Russia; the obliteration of Iran’s nuclear program; speaking truth to power; deterrence failure and pushing Iran toward nuclear weapons; Iran’s modest response to the attacks; enforcement within the NPT; implications for regional and global security; and Marcus reflects on why he was so wrong

Thank you to our listeners for joining us for five seasons and 100 episodes! Cheap Talk returns for Season 6: Advice for new college students; the Trump-Putin summit spectacle; analyzing Trump’s body language; the challenges of studying summitry; the Trump administration’s unique approach to high-level meetings; a typology of leader diplomacy; Zelensky’s DC visit; the Trump administration’s overall posture toward the conflict; and Marcus would be happy to say nothing at all

Cheap Talk’s Season 5 finale: Everyone is cheating their way through college; remembering Joe Nye; interpreting President Trump’s big beautiful phone call with Vladimir Putin; evaluating the Golden Dome missile defense system; missile defense and strategic stability; and Marcus is looking forward to season 6 We’re mostly taking the summer off from podcasting (unless something big happens), but we’ll be back to our regular weekly schedule in the fall. In the meantime, please subscribe to Cheap Talk on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or your podcast player of choice to be notified when new episodes are posted.

Some good arguments against AI use in the classroom; how students are actually using AI; the idea of AI as a learning coach; other models for AI use by students; testing out an AI prediction coach; the balance between coaching and just doing the work for you; issues to consider before deploying AI in the classroom; and Marcus does math without a calculator Try the AI prediction coach described in the podcast at https://bit.ly/gov100gptcoach (requires a free ChatGPT login)

Iran nuclear talks are a marathon, not a sprint; three models for an Iran nuclear agreement; the role of technical expertise in nuclear negotiations; snap-back sanctions as a point of leverage; the demise of Iran’s proxy network; a regional solution to the nuclear problem; President Trump’s metrics for a successful deal; and Marcus says chafing is for amateurs

The resumption of Iran nuclear talks; direct vs. indirect negotiations; the administration’s confusing messaging around the goals of talks; what kind of a deal is actually achievable; President Trump’s potential advantages in trying to reach a deal; and Marcus looks ahead to 2032

Normalizing national security-related Signal chats; blaming Siri for revealing the Signal chat; divining a grand plan behind US tariff policy; trade deficits are normal and fine; anti-expert public opinion; political dimensions to the tariff story; bringing manufacturing back to the United States; the domestic politics of tariffs; and Marcus is running a trade deficit with Fresh Market

High-level US government deliberations on the Signal app; the true beliefs of our national security leaders; why using Signal for national security discussions is a bad idea; classified information and Signal’s security; the use of emoji in formal work settings; and Marcus is more of a WhatsApp person

Trip report from the 2025 International Studies Association Annual Conference; the reasons to attend academic conferences; whether diplomats will embrace virtual reality diplomacy; the usefulness of AI in diplomacy; teaching people to use AI; and Marcus goes out for deep dish pizza

The disastrous return of face-to-face diplomacy between Trump and Zelensky; the ambush theory of international diplomacy; should this meeting have been an email; a stark signal to Europe and other allies; and Marcus’ rooms have feels

Five things we did this week; small signs of pushback against Elon Musk; foreign policy implications of DOGE; security risks from merging government computer systems; efficiency vs. other priorities in government; what’s in a place name; the fleeting nature of place names in a digital world; maps as arbiters of truth; Mapquest does not care; and Marcus’ rose is off the bud

A bad week for Ukraine and transatlantic relations; Trump’s mini-feud with Zelensky; a bargaining approach to the question of whether Zelensky could have avoided war; the return of spheres of influence; reassuring words from Vladimir Putin; Europe’s appetite for securing a post-conflict Ukraine; and Marcus embraces rationalism

The Trump administration’s early moves and their implications for US foreign policy; hollowing out expertise in the civil service; the loss of USAID; Trump’s designs on the Gaza Strip; tough signals to Ukraine on upcoming negotiations; and Marcus is already working on the op-ed