Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, recording from the Coatue East Meets West stage, they welcome OpenAI CPO Kevin Weil to discuss all things OpenAI. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Show Notes:
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Kevin Weil @kevinweil
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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they welcome Coatue’s Thomas and Philippe Laffont to discuss the AI Super cycle, Stablecoin and crypto, consumer AI, NVIDIA GPU’s, Macroeconomics, publc markets, VC markets, M&A’s, insights for founders and CEO’s, and more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:36) The AI Super Cycle
(07:47) Stablecoin & Cryptocurrency
(16:19) Consumer AI & Impact on $GOOG
(22:54) GPU Allocation v Cloud Revenue Market Share
(28:56) AI Impact on Macro + Debt
(35:20) Private Markets, IPO’s, M&A’s
(45:59) Golden Age of Margin Expansion
(51:48) Jevon’s Paradox
(53:19) Insights for Founders and CEOs
Show Notes:
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the pace of AI and data walls, China’s startups, immigration and talent acquisition, rare earths, chips, China trade deal, corporate governance, Delaware incorporation rights, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(04:24) Pace of AI + Data Walls
(11:43) China's 1000 Startup Strategy
(26:18) Talent Acquisition and Immigration Policies
(36:24) Rare Earths, Chips / China Trade Deal
(53:46) Corporate Governance and Delaware Dilemna
Show Notes:
China’s “Thousand Startups Bloom”
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Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, they discuss the overturning of the AI Diffusion Rule, Brad’s trip to the Middle East, Middle East Deals, China Tariffs, Reconciliation Bill, Invest America, Delaware Incorporation Rights, Momentum in Crypto, Open Source AI in China, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:02) AI Diffusion Rule and Middle East Deals
(20:31) China Tariff Deal
(31:10) Reconciliation Bill
(44:06) Invest America inclusion in the bill
(49:09) Delaware Incorporation Rights
(59:51) Major Momentum in Crypto
(01:06:28) Open Source AI in China
Show Notes:
WSJ - The Tech Industry Is Huge–and Europe’s Share of It Is Very Small
Welcome to the China Hawk Industrial Complex
China's Baidu to make latest Ernie AI model open-source as competition heats up
Lodestar Multipliers in Delaware and Federal Attorney Fee Awards
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Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they revisit arguments about free trade, and discuss updates on tariff negotiations, export controls, the new AI cold war, NVIDIA H20 chip ban, rare earth ban, DeepSeek, Tesla, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:15) Complex Systems
(06:00) Tariff Negotiations & Free Trade
(23:19) Export Controls: AI War, H20 & Rare Earth Ban
(42:29) New AI Cold War & Zero Sum Game
(52:37) $TSLA & Market Check
Show Notes:
Financial Times - US rare earth champion faces trade war test after tariffs halt China sales
CNBC - U.S. chip controls will benefit China’s Nvidia rivals like Huawei: Analysts
Project Syndicate - Trump’s $16 Trillion Trade Blind Spot
NYTimes - I Just Saw the Future. It Was Not in America (Thomas L. Friedman)
Ezra Klein Podcast feat. Thomas Friedman
John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024
Reuters - China hits back at US tariffs with export controls on key rare earths
NYTimes - Nvidia Says U.S. Will Restrict Sales of More of Its A.I. Chips to China
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:20) Liberation Day & Tariffs
(19:18) US Open Source vs China Open Source
(34:34) OpenAI Fundraise
(52:25) Coreweave IPO & AI Demand
(01:04:03) Rumors on TikTok deal
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss market uncertainty, globalism and tariffs, M&A, Wiz and GOOG, NVDA GTC, consumer AI demand, AI unit economics, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:21) Market Uncertainty
(07:28) Globalism and Tariff Policies
(25:07) $GOOG Acquisition of Wiz + M&A Environment
(40:33) $NVDA Market Position
(55:37) Government Regulations & Impact on AI
(1:04:45) Consumer AI Demand
(1:10:33) AI Unit Economics
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Grok 3, AI memory, voice, and evaluations, China, DOGE, the public market pullback, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:40) Grok 3
(05:55) Grok’s Leverage of X Platform
(07:25) AI Consumer Market & SEO
(23:04) AI Memory
(26:15) AI Voice
(29:05) Future AI Assets
(33:29) AI Acceleration in China
(36:09) Regulatory Challenges
(37:46) AI CapEx and Investing Dynamics
(48:38) Government Spending + DOGE
(1:00:51) Golden State Warriors
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss DeepSeek, globalism vs national interests, Trump tariffs, open source, DOGE, & more. . Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(03:20) DeepSeek & Open Source
(37:03) Trump Tariffs
(50:31) DOGE
(01:04:19) Tech and Political Uncertainty
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Brad Gerstner @altcap https://x.com/altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by a surprise guest, and discuss Stargate, executive orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:21) Stargate
(15:07) Dylan Patel and Semianalysis take on Stargate
(17:56) Stargate’s Impact on AI Competitive Landscape
(29:03) DeepSeek
(32:03) Special Guest Rene Haas (CEO of ARM Holdings)
(49:46) DeepSeek continued
(51:53) Trumps Executive Orders & Regulatory Freeze
(54:10) Coordination in AI Legistlation
(59:38) US National Debt and Balancing the Budget
(1:01:08) TikTok
(1:05:48) Tech Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
Rene Haas @renehaas237
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss Brad’s public market predictions, AI enthusiasm and fears, interest rates, inflation, DOGE, federal budget analysis, big tech capex, scaling inference, Satya Nadella, Jensen Huang, Elon Musk, AI reasoning models, chain of thought, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:58) Frontline Ideas for 2025
(07:02) The Bogeyman (Interest Rates and Inflation)
(09:21) Mega Cap Valuations & Expectations
(14:02) Big Tech CapEx
(16:51) Scaling Inference
(20:11) Future of AI
(39:50) Role of Power in AI Development
(42:58) Interest Rates & Economic Growth
(45:11) Federal Spending & DOGE
(54:15) Regulatory Landscape for AI
(01:01:27) Co-opetition in AI
(01:17:06) Reasoning Models & Chain of Thought
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Dylan Patel, Founder & Chief Analyst at SemiAnalysis, to discuss origins of SemiAnalysis, Google's AI workload, NVIDIA's competitive edge, the shift to GPUs in data centers, the challenges of scaling AI pre-training, synthetic data generation, hyperscaler capital expenditures, the paradox of building bigger clusters despite claims that pretraining is obsolete, inference-time compute, NVIDIA's comparison to Cisco, evolving memory technology, chip competition, future predictions, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2!
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:50) Dylan Patel Backstory
(02:36) SemiAnalysis Backstory
(04:18) Google's AI Workload
(06:58) NVIDIA's Edge
(10:59) NVIDIA's Incremental Differentiation
(13:12) Potential Vulnerabilities for NVIDIA
(17:18) The Shift to GPUs: What It Means for Data Centers
(22:29) AI Pre-training Scaling Challenges
(29:43) If Pretraining Is Dead, Why Bigger Clusters?
(34:00) Synthetic Data Generation
(36:26) Hyperscaler CapEx
(38:12) Pre-training and Inference-tIme Reasoning
(41:00) Cisco Comparison to NVIDIA
(44:11) Inference-time Compute
(53:18) The Future of AI Models and Market Dynamics
(01:00:58) Evolving Memory Technology
(01:06:46) Chip Competition
(01:07:18) AMD
(01:10:35) Google’s TPU
(01:14:51) Amason’s Tranium
(01:17:33) Predictions for 2025 and 2026
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
Dylan Patel @dylan522p
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Satya Nadella, CEO of Microsoft, to discuss becoming Microsoft’s CEO, Advice for CEO’s, Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI, Legacy Search, Ten Blue Links, Consumer and Enterprise AI, The Future of AI Agents, Infinite Memory, CoPilot, Microsoft’s Capital Expenditure, Open AI’s future, AI safety & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:31) Becoming Microsoft CEO
(06:42) Satya’s Memo to CEO Committee
(10:42) Satya’s Advantage as a CEO
(11:34) Advice for CEOs
(15:01) Microsoft’s Investment in OpenAI
(19:42) AI Arms Race
(23:55) Legacy Search and Consumer AI
(28:07) The Future of AI Agents
(38:32) Near-Infinite Memory
(39:47) Copilot Approach to AI Adoption
(50:26) Leveraging AI within Microsoft
(56:03) CapX
(01:00:20) The Cost of Model Scaling and Inference
(01:15:15) Open AI Conversion to Profit
(01:18:05) Next Steps for OpenAI
(01:19:43) Open vs. Closed and Safe AI
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they get in the Thanksgiving spirit, and discuss China, DOGE, Governor Newsom’s EV Tax Credit, Service Titan IPO, FedNow, Tariffs, Anthropic Open Source, Warren Buffet’s Thanksgiving letter, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(01:40) Innovation in China & U.S. Competitiveness
(05:43) DOGE & Balancing the Budget
(10:43) Service Titan IPO & “Compounding Ratchet”
(15:36) Gov Newsom Attack on Tesla
(18:33) FedNow + Innovations in Payment Systems
(23:44) Tariffs as Negotiation Tactics
(27:36) Anthropic Open Source AI
(30:39) Warren Buffett's Philanthropy
(40:06) Invest America
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
Follow:
Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss AI Scaling Laws, the future of inference, AI memory and actions, National Full Self-Driving Regulations, FSD 13, Robotaxi and Waymo, Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(02:00) AI Scaling Laws
(05:54) Implications of AI Scaling Trends
(12:20) The Future of Inference and Data Quality
(17:51) AI Memory and Actions
(21:47) National Full Self-Driving Regulation
(23:14) FSD 13
(29:41) Market Disruption: Winners and Losers in the Auto Industry
(31:18) The Future of OEM’s
(40:41) Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE)
(54:47) Tech Market Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
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#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they are joined by Jamin Ball (Partner at Altimeter) to discuss the state of venture capital and incentives, implications of overcapitalization, the future of power law returns, AI’s impact on investment strategies, the future of AI and CapEx, the market’s reactions to the 2024 election, the evolution of search and AI integration, Nasa, SpaceX, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:52) Bill’s Dad | from Nasa to SpaceX
(06:20) State of VC and Incentives w/ Jamin Ball
(12:31) Implications of Overcapitalization
(25:08) The Future of Power Law Returns
(38:28) The Impact of AI on Investment Strategies
(46:00) Future of AI and Capital Expenditure
(52:21) Market Reactions to 2024 Election
(01:00:45) Evolution of Search and AI Integration
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Brad Gerstner @altcap
Bill Gurley @bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod
Jamin Ball @jaminball
Shownotes
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, joined by Sunny Madra (Groq) they discuss Jensen Huang’s recent appearance on the podcast, including scaling intelligence towards AGI, NVIDIA's strategic positioning, the role of CUDA in the developer ecosystem, the future of inference workloads, systems-level thinking, Elon Musk's influence on AI development, the future of AI assistants, open vs closed AI models, safety and security in AI development, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Chapters
(00:00) Introduction and Initial Reactions to Jensen
(04:32) NVIDIA's Position in Accelerated Compute
(05:11) CUDA and NVIDIA’s Competitive Moat
(12:53) Challenges to NVIDIA’s Competitive Advantage
(18:22) Future Outlook on Inference
(24:46) The Insatiable Demand for AI and Hardware
(27:12) Elon Musk' and X.ai
(31:47) Scaling AI Models and Clusters
(34:17) Economic Models and Funding in AI
(39:08) The Future of AI Pricing and Consumption Models
(42:25) Memory, Actions, and Intelligent Agents
(47:08) The Role of AI in Business Productivity
(51:03) Open vs Closed Models in AI Development
#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week, Jensen Huang, CEO of NVIDIA, makes a guest appearance. In Bill’s absence, Brad is joined by Clark Tang (Partner at Altimeter) as they discuss with Jensen scaling intelligence towards AGI, the acceleration of machine learning, NVIDIA's competitive advantages, the significance of inference alongside training, future market dynamics in the AI landscape, the impact of AI on various industries, the future of work, inference time reasoning, AI’s potential to enhance productivity, the balance between open source and closed source, Elon’s Memphis Supercluster, X.ai, OpenAI, the safe development of AI, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Chapters
(00:00) Introduction
(1:50) The Evolution of AGI and Personal Assistants
(06:03) NVIDIA's Competitive Moat
(15:51 ) The Future of Inference and Training in AI
(19:01) Building the AI Infrastructure
(31:35) Inventing a New Market in an AI Future
(38:40) The Impact of OpenAI
(43:25) The Future of AI Models
(46.44) X.ai and Memphis Supercluster
(51:21) Distributed Computing and Inference Scaling
(55:54) Inference Time Reasoning and Its Importance
(01:00:46) AI's Role in Growing Business and Improving Productivity
(01:08:00) Ensuring Safe AI Development
(01:12:31) The Balance of Open Source and Closed Source AI
#jensenhuang #nvidia #bradgerstner #billgurley #clarktang #xai #memphiscluster #elonmusk #noambrown #openai #gptstrawberry
Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they discuss private sector interest in nuclear energy, AI supply and demand, OpenAI Strawberry o1,inference constraints, the evolution of AI models, the state of VC, zombiecorns, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(00:36) The U.S. Nuclear Renaissance
(08:15) AI Fast and Furious
(11:19) OpenAI Strawberry o1
(17:15) Inference Constraints
(20:18) Open AI Breaking Out
(35:00) State of VC
(43:52) “Quasi-Public Companies”
(48:32) Liquidity / IPOs
(58:41) Tech Market Check
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Bill Gurley @bgurley
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Open Source bi-weekly convo w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner on all things tech, markets, investing & capitalism. This week they sit down with Maureen Zawalick (Vice President at Diablo Canyon Power Plant) to discuss the importance of nuclear power, the history and future of Diablo Canyon Power Plant, the role of AI in the nuclear industry, the cost differential of nuclear energy in the US and China, Gen 4 reactors, regulation, litigation, & more. Enjoy another episode of BG2.
Timestamps:
(00:00) Intro
(04:14) Maureen Zawalick | VP at Diablo Canyon
(06:13) The Need for Diablo
(10:07) The Importance of Nuclear Power
(15:50) License Renewal and the Future of Diablo
(18:39) Hope for Expanding Nuclear Power
(25:22) Nuclear Waste
(30:29) Cost Differential: US vs China
(38:56) Factors Contributing to Cost Differential
(45:07) Implications of China’s Nuclear Leadership
(47:42) Nuclear Energy and AI Supremacy
(50:58) The Innovation Gap and Gen 4 Reactors
(57:27) Overcoming Challenges
(01:03:45) A Call for Government Support
Available on Apple, Spotify, www.bg2pod.com
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Bill Gurley @bgurley https://x.com/bgurley
BG2 Pod @bg2pod https://x.com/BG2Pod
****
Shownotes:
US Navy Nuclear Propulsion Program 2020
ITIF.org - How Innovative Is China in Nuclear Power
NYTimes - Nuclear Power Can Save the World
Reuters - Constellation talking to Pennsylvania on Three Mile Island restart
Julie Dewahl - Nuclear Past Present Future
Breakthrough Institute - China’s Impressive Rate of Nuclear Construction
Next Big Future - US Nuclear Cost 5-10x More Than China
Energy.gov - Newly Signed Bill to Boost Nuclear
Advanced Nuclear - Nuclear Commercial Liftoff
LA Times - Loan to keep Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open
South Korea Builds Nuclear Plants Quickly and Cheaply
Westinghouse Electric's Chinese 'Trojan Horse'
Friends of the Earth sues DOE over Billion Dollar Award to Diablo Canyon
Revitalizing America’s Nuclear Energy Supply Chain
5 charts to explain why nuclear power is making a comeback
Podcast - The cost of nuclear - Catalyst w/ Shayle Kann
RIC 2024 Opening Session - Remarks by NRC Chair Christopher T. Hanson
A One-on-One with NRC Chair Christopher Hanson
Bill Gates on Bipartisan Support for Nuclear Power
Podcast w/ PG&E CEO Patricia Poppe
Germany Reacts to Trump's UNGA Speech
#BillGurley #BradGerstner #Bg2Pod
