Firebird Management's Steve Gorelik's Molina Healthcare Bull Thesis $MOH

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Yet Another Value Podcast

Andrew Walker

349 episodes

1 day ago

Yet Another Value Podcast is a new podcast from Andrew Walker, the founder of yetanothervalueblog.com/. We interview top investors and dive deep into stocks and companies they are currently working on and investing in. While nothing on this channel is investing advice and everyone should do their own diligence, our goal is to frequently feature edgy and actionable value and/or event driven ideas. Please see our legal and disclaimer at: https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer

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Firebird Management's Steve Gorelik's Molina Healthcare Bull Thesis $MOH

Yet Another Value Podcast

55 minutes 21 seconds

1 week ago

Firebird Management's Steve Gorelik's Molina Healthcare Bull Thesis $MOH

In this episode of Yet Another Value Podcast, host Andrew Walker welcomes back Steve Gorelik from Firebird Management for a deep dive into Molina Healthcare (ticker: MOH). Together, they explore the sharp drop in Molina's stock despite its long-standing compounder reputation. Steve outlines how Molina operates as a low-cost Medicaid-focused managed care organization, making it uniquely resilient amid rising medical costs and regulatory challenges. They discuss Molina’s competitive advantages, risks tied to healthcare policy, redetermination effects, and its strategic M&A playbook. Tune in to understand why Steve believes Molina remains undervalued and poised to outperform its peers—even as the broader Medicaid sector stumbles.

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[00:00:00] Intro and sponsor mention

[00:02:25] What is Molina Healthcare?

[00:05:31] Medicaid model and revenue growth

[00:06:25] Molina stock chart and July crash

[00:07:13] Industry-wide margin compression

[00:11:28] Why Steve sees alpha in Molina

[00:13:29] ROE vs. cost structure explained

[00:15:04] Admin efficiency as competitive edge

[00:17:04] Molina’s playbook and cost culture

[00:20:16] Medicaid redetermination impact

[00:24:07] Market share gains amid member losses

[00:26:26] What's driving cost inflation now

[00:28:44] Will premiums rise to match costs?

[00:30:26] Regulatory risks in Medicaid

[00:32:19] Medicaid vs. private cost efficiency

[00:33:54] Denials, approvals, and outcomes

[00:37:50] Molina’s denials as cost control

[00:40:42] Tender process and doctor networks

[00:41:43] What keeps Steve up at night

[00:44:41] Acquisitions: model and pipeline

[00:47:18] M&A parallels to John Malone

[00:48:19] CEO incentives and share ownership

[00:50:48] Share buybacks and capital returns

[00:51:19] Could Molina be acquired?

[00:52:57] Long-term compounding vs. exit

[00:53:28] Scooby-Doo investing explained

[00:54:23] Wrapping up the conversation

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See our legal disclaimer here: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/p/legal-and-disclaimer