Market Outlook – Wheat

Wheat markets continue to grind near their contract lows on the futures markets and sit at levels which were previously seen in early 2021. Markets have a better understanding of wheat supplies now that the European, Black Sea, United States and Canadian crops are either off or close to wrappingup their harvest season. Recent USDA, Statistics Canada, ABARES and private reports confirm that global supplies have grown from earlier season reports. Australiancrops look favourable and have seen some major improvements in the past two months. The Argentinian crop looks great and that story will play out in the coming months as well. There is a lack of any major concerns for the market to work with right now and it has kept any movement sideways to lower. Demand is the item being watched as export pace is slow in some regions and reports of buyers remaining on the sidelines seeing how low prices may move before making any major commitments. With supplies relatively well understood, we will need to see stories build on the demand side. The next thing the market will watch as we move throughout the calendar will be EU and Black Sea winter crop planting. Nothing major to report there yet.

Market Outlook – Durum

Canadian producers will need to see strong export demand throughout the marketing year. Canadian durum is expected to be of good quality for export but will need to remain competitive globally. European production is estimated at 8.3 mmt vs last years’ 7.2 mmt which has weighed on EU prices. Global durum carryout is expected to jump to 7 mmt,up by 400,000 tonnes over last years’ ending stock estimate. Canadian durum crop size estimated by the International Grains Council (IGC) is at 5.8 mmt. However, Statistics Canada’s latest release has the figure closer to 6.1 mmt.Canadian durum values are under harvest pressure as supplies become available to the market.