MARKET OUTLOOK – WHEAT

Wheat futures markets still hover near their five-year lows and futures on the front month Minneapolis contract sit at $5.49 per bushel. The last time wheat futures were at this level was December of 2020. Kansas City and Chicago wheat finding a bit more ground recently, although contract lows remain very close in the rearview mirror. Wheat markets continue to be fed new rhetoric towards larger crops and the recent upgrades to Argentinian wheat production levels and anticipation that the Australian crop could grow vs shrink in size has wheat markets resistant to make a move higher. The market will need to make its moves higher on demand related stories. North American demand Is perceived as just fine with both U.S. demand forecasted to be strong and Canadian export pace being rapid. European and Black Sea shipping pace is behind pace, and we will need to see true demandpick up out of the region. There are a few key importers behind pace on imports, and we need to see these importers step up to the plate to keep demand moving forwards. Global wheat bids are relatively stable, some few-dollar moves in FOB values each week but relative stability. We will move out of harvest pressure in northern hemisphere and transition into winter exporting season. Producer bids for spring wheat in the Canadian prairies sit just below $7 and we are still on hold for making big sales as we hover and trod along our five-yearlows. Strong demand for CWRS is anticipated throughout the winter, we will be watching if U.S. trade deals or MOUs with nations such as Bangladesh on wheat pull from Canadian demand. As we head into winter another item to watch will beany drought or issues with either the European, Black Sea or U.S. winter wheat crops.

MARKET OUTLOOK – DURUM

The Canadian durum crop has grown through harvest as later estimates point towards a larger crop. Early demand has been promising and the notable 310,000 tonne sale to Algeria will only improve export prospects for the short term. Provincial reports point to the crop being larger than Statistics Canada with Saskatchewan provincial crop report pointing to a 41BPA average for durum vs a 33 BPA average just one year ago. Market prices have stabilized recently domestically following harvest lows. Production is expected widely within the market to surpass Statistics Canada’s 6.5 mmt crop. Crop prices domestically have stabilized and are seeing crop prices in the $7.50 to $7.75+ per bushel range across Saskatchewan andhave picked up around $0.25 per bushel over the past month. Global import demand expected to drop from 9.2 mmt last year to 8.6 mmt this year, larger global production being penciled in at 37.2 mmt vs last year’s 36.4 mmt of which Canada will account for 6.5 mmt of that. EU crop at 8.3 mmt vs 7.2 mmt last year. Ending stocks, this year are expected globally at 7.5 mmt vs 6.7 mmt last year and Canadian durum will need to be competitive. Early exports of Canadian durum have been strong and pricing well into EU and North Africa.