In this episode, we unpack Edward Chancellor’s Capital Returns, diving into the capital cycle’s game-changing insight: high returns attract capital, flood supply, and crash profits, while low returns spark recoveries. We explore why miners lost 70% after a $160B spending spree, how Anglo Irish Bank’s reckless lending signaled doom, and why China’s 50% GDP investment led to “ghastly” equity returns. From spotting overconfident CEOs to dodging investment bankers’ fee-driven traps, we reveal the signals that could save your portfolio or cost you millions in 2025’s volatile markets.

We break down Marathon Asset Management’s playbook, focusing on supply over demand, betting on counter-cyclical managers, and hunting “under-the-radar” firms like Analog Devices with durable moats. You’ll learn why asset growth predicts low returns, how “zombie capitalism” stalls recoveries, and why generalists outsmart specialists in cyclical industries.

From the commodity supercycle’s bust to Spain’s property bubble, we unpack real-world cases and practical tenets to invest smarter. Whether it’s sidestepping M&A pitfalls or embracing mean reversion, this episode equips you with the tools to profit through the capital cycle.

Whether you’re an investor, founder, or just chasing market millions, this episode exposes the strategies that could redefine your returns or leave you burned.

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