In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
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In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
Episode 65: Peak fear and the return to normal: Crude markets find their footing
Trade with Conviction
27 minutes
5 days ago
Episode 65: Peak fear and the return to normal: Crude markets find their footing
In this episode of Trade with Conviction, Rachel, Neil, and June dissect the current crude oil landscape - from easing sanctions anxiety and shifting Chinese buying patterns to the tug-of-war between term and spot contracts. They dive into the changing dynamics of Russian crude flows, China’s strategic reserve buildout, OPEC’s cautious moves, and a freight market on fire, painting a picture of a market that’s steadying after turbulence but far from dull.
Key Takeaways:
> Have we passed “peak fear” on sanctions?> Why Chinese refiners should lock in more term barrels.> Freight rates surge: is the VLCC boom here to stay?> Refining margins skyrocketing - how long can it last?Chapters:
(00:39) Peak Fear and the Russian BarrelNeil argues the market’s past “peak fear” — Russian flows continue, and sanctions are being absorbed rather than biting.
(02:30) India & China: Mixed Signals on BuyingConflicting headlines, shifting optics, and why oil “always finds a way.”
(09:01) AG Market Cools — Term vs SpotWith ample supply and volatility, Chinese refiners rethink how much crude to lock in for 2026.
(12:14) China’s SPR BuildoutJune breaks down China’s storage expansion — what 169 million barrels of new capacity could mean for demand.
(16:37) Freight FirestormVLCC rates surge again, shutting East–West arbs and reshaping crude differentials.
(21:00) Saudi OSPs & The Price SweetenerSaudi price cuts for Asia hint at a push to secure term deals — and pressure on AG spot markets.
(19:03) The Rest of the Barrel: Products & MarginsFrom naphtha to diesel, Neil and June unpack refining margins, freight, and where cracks might finally weaken.
Trade with Conviction
In-depth analysis of current trends and future expectations for different segments of the oil market, with a focus on understanding both the supply and demand dynamics at play.
