Noah Lichtenstein has a simple but sharp take on venture right now:
Capital is commoditized. Edge comes from operators.

The irony is hard to ignore. Venture used to pride itself on sourcing the next big thing before anyone else. Now? Most funds are chasing the same deals, and the only real differentiator is whether a founder wants you in the room.

Crossover’s bet is that founders want people who’ve been there. The ones who scaled Databricks, Instacart, Perplexity, Lattice. Operators turned investors who act as magnets for the next generation of builders.

But underneath the narrative are some uncomfortable truths Noah calls out:

• Aggregation of capital: 79% of venture dollars last year went to just 30 firms. Call it the “Blackstonification” of venture — giant funds hoovering capital while returns concentrate in a few hands.
  
• Family offices’ dilemma: everyone wants direct startup access, but without asymmetric information you’re usually “the last to know.” If Sequoia just preempted the round, why would you get the invite?
  
• Too many emerging managers: post-ZIRP, everyone wanted to spin up a fund. The harsh reality? Unless you’re in the tiny sliver of outlier funds, you’d be better off in the S&P 500.
  
• Portfolio construction as strategy: writing 25K angel checks doesn’t prove you can win allocations when the check needs to be $1M+. Moving up the pyramid is brutally hard.
  

So where does this head? A few downstream consequences Noah sees:

(1) Specialization beats generalization. Unless you’re Sequoia or Benchmark, the generalist VC is in decline. Right to win now means domain expertise + operating scars.
(2) Data as a filter. With exposure to ~1,000 seed-stage companies, Crossover tracks 120+ data points to find the 10–15% worth leaning into. Signal in the noise becomes survival.
(3) Excellence compounds. Their dinner series brings billion-dollar founders, seed-stage builders, and even pro athletes into the same room. No agenda — just a flywheel of ambition and ideas.

Venture may not be “dead,” but it’s undeniably reshaping. Scale sits at the top, but edge lives at the bottom — with the operators, networks, and small funds that still feel like craft.