
EP#11: Avoid information overload in the stock market and decode the economy.
Gaining confidence as an investor involves understanding the longer term patterns of the stock market. Nothing explains these patterns better than economic cycles.
NBER (National Bureau of Economic Research) is the organization that declares U.S. Recessions. Fortunately, NBER provides clarity around what a recession is and the data points they use to declare a recession.
It is clear that the stock market rises over time. There may be months where it is down, but overall the stock market has continued to rise in the long term.
Looking back at the past 8 recessions from the 1960s onward, from the time a recession started until the low point in the recession, the S&P 500 averaged a decline of about 24%. Understanding this could keep you ahead of the curve and help you invest when stocks are discounted.
Resources mentioned:
NBER Turning Points (This really should be part of financial literacy!)
Market Watch U.S. Economic Calendar
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