In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss the ongoing government shutdown and its implications, along with the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance and how it is affecting the markets. We also explore the potential impact of New York City’s new mayor on real estate trends and housing affordability. We cover the recent partnership between OpenAI and Amazon, which represents a notable shift away from Microsoft. We also highlight Trepp’s latest AI-powered tools designed to support the commercial real estate finance industry. In a deep dive into October CMBS delinquency data, we go behind the scenes of distress metrics and walk our listeners through the specific loans that drove distress higher or improved the rate in October. To close out the episode, we share notable apartment transactions and compare two industrial property sales, focusing on how location influences price per square foot. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
Economic Update: Govt Shutdown & NYC Mayor (1:40)
OpenAI & Amazon Deal and AI at Trepp (15:07)
CMBS Delinquency Rate & Cured Loans Analysis (29:43)
Notable Apartment Transactions (37:57)
Lease Concessions & Market Trends (39:51)
Industrial Transactions (45:51)
Programming Notes (48:55)
Shoutouts (52:52)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate cut and the continued banking consolidation trend, including Huntington’s acquisition of Cadence Bank. We discuss Amazon’s 14,000 layoffs amid its AI push and how that shift impacts office demand and data centers. We also review Trepp’s new report on the $4.8 trillion CRE debt universe, which details who holds the debt and when it comes due. We cover the October CMBS delinquency rate increase to 7.4% and highlight a Texas multifamily loan default. We wrap up with multifamily sales in Florida and Georgia and two office trading alerts. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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The government is still shut down and the markets are awaiting a delayed inflation report. While this doesn’t sound like new news, in this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we give it all a real estate spin – what do the happenings in the macro landscape really mean in the context for the commercial real estate (CRE) market. We dive into the Amazon Web Services (AWS) outage and its implications for infrastructure risk, followed by a breakdown of major developments in AI, including OpenAI’s launch of its new browser and growing concerns about AI replacing white-collar jobs. In banking news, we break down Zion’s $1 billion drop in valuation in a single day and discuss what has changed since. We close with some deals and loan performance changes at properties across the country. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
• Economic Update: CRE Playbook (0:29)
• AWS Outage & AI Shifts (12:36)
• Zions Bancorporation: Bad Loans? (27:19)
• $126.5M Dallas Office Building Purchase (38:28)
• Value of New Hampshire Mall Slashed (44:24)
• Chicago Apartment Property Sold for $54M (45:51)
• Programming Notes (50:16)
• Shoutouts (52:06)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the ripple effects of the government shutdown and discuss how the Beige Book has gained importance amid the economic data drought. We highlight Trepp’s projection of over $123 billion in private-label CMBS issuance for 2025 and preview our September CMBS Special Servicing report, where the rate climbed to 10.65%—the highest since May 2013. We break down Q3 earnings from major banks and do a “Digging Through the Data” segment on the top CRE lenders of 2025. We also explore national security concerns tied to concentrated data center cluster and examine Walmart’s integration with ChatGPT, a move that could reshape how consumers interact with AI. In our CRE roundup, we spotlight NYC’s leasing boom - now at a 19-year high - and discuss SL Green’s acquisition of Park Avenue Tower. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the U.S. government still being shut down and what it means for economic data releases being paused the longer it drags on. We unpack the September Fed meeting minutes, which revealed a split among policymakers following last month’s 25-basis-point rate cut. We dive into Q3 CMBS issuance trends and explore how the current pace could make 2025 the most active year for issuance since 2007, when $230.5 billion was issued. In banking news, we spotlight Fifth Third’s acquisition of Comerica, a deal that would create the ninth-largest U.S. bank and potentially reshape the regional lending landscape. In the commercial property segment, we highlight RXR’s $1.45 billion Midtown recapitalization, a major office-to-residential conversion near Penn Station, Crescent Real Estate’s purchase of a Dallas office building, and more. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
• Economic Update: Government Still Shutdown (1:37)
• Implications for CRE (10:28)
• FOMC Meeting Minutes & Economic Data (12:56)
• Q3 CMBS Issuance & Projections (16:49)
• Fifth Third to buy Comerica (24:01)
• RXR $1.4B Midtown Recapitalization (31:36)
• Office-to-Resi Conversion Near Penn Station (36:50)
• Crescent Real Estate Buys Dallas' 2000 McKinney Office (39:26)
• Programming Notes (41:53)
• Shoutouts (43:21)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we analyze what recent developments mean for commercial real estate (CRE), starting with the U.S. government shutdown. We explore its potential economic impact, how long it could last, and what historical shutdowns suggest for CRE. We continue the ongoing conversation about AI, including Accenture layoffs, and Citi’s employee training. Next, we break down our latest CMBS Delinquency Report, which saw the September 2025 overall rate decreasing for the first time since February, and preview Trepp’s Anonymized Loan Level Repository (T-ALLR) Q2 2025 report, sharing signs from bank data. We also cover a trading alert on an outlet loan transferred to special servicing, IKEA’s expansion into Manhattan, continued happenings at Westfield San Francisco Centre, BlackRock’s lease expansion at its Hudson Yards headquarters, and more. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
• Economic Update: U.S. Government Shutdown (1:33)
• AI Discussion: Accenture Layoffs, Citi Training (11:27)
• Trepp September CMBS Delinquency Report (22:14)
• T-ALLR Q2 2025 Report Preview (25:28)
• Outlet Loan Heads to Special Servicing (29:42)
• Retail: IKEA’s expansion in Manhattan (34:36)
• Westfield San Francisco Center (37:05)
• Labubu Times Square Store (39:49)
• BlackRock Hudson Yards HQ Expansion (43:53)
• Programming Notes (45:06)
• Shoutouts (46:56)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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Is office a good investment alternative? In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break it down, spotlighting growing demand for high-end CBD space even amid ongoing distress. We dive into Compass’ $1.6 billion acquisition of Anywhere and its potential impact on the broader residential brokerage landscape, along with August’s new home sales data. Responding to a listener question, we explain the concept of “recapture,” exploring how depreciation factors into decisions to hand back the keys. Plus, we share fresh September data-filled office trading alerts, opportunities in student housing, and the acquisition of Toll Brothers’ apartment platform. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this special episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined by John Barkidjija, Executive Vice President and Head of Commercial Real Estate (CRE) and Specialty Finance at Byline Bank. Better known to our listeners as Dr. Debt Yield, John shares why the debt yield metric remains a cornerstone in CRE and reflects on the moment it became his preferred tool for analyzing real estate. He offers valuable lessons from navigating market downturns from the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and explains how his legal background fuels a creative approach to problem-solving. The discussion covers key macroeconomic forces driving market uncertainty, from interest rate volatility and tariff impacts to the growing influence of AI. We also explore delinquency resolutions, recent shifts in bank regulatory reporting, and John’s outlook on potential interest rate cuts. Tune in now.
Episode Notes
• Background & Start in CRE (1:50)
• Importance of the Debt Yield Metric (6:50)
• Macro Factors Impacting CRE Uncertainty (11:10)
• The Role of AI & Office Implications (14:17)
• Lessons from Down Cycles (18:10)
• Good & Bad Resolutions in Delinquencies (24:47)
• Bank Regulation Reporting Change (35:37)
• Fed Interest Rate Decision Prediction (38:33)
• Shoutouts (41:54)
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Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we analyze the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut and the impact on the commercial real estate (CRE) capital markets. We revisit the movement of the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and credit spreads leading up to the decision. We also unpack the stronger-than-expected retail sales data for August, debate whether economists are overestimating the impact of tariffs on spending, and touch on the current economic stability amid market risks. Turning to CRE stories of the week, we talk about Rithm Capital’s plans to acquire Paramount Group for $1.6 billion, Brookfield’s completed turn around of 660 Fifth Avenue, as well as SL Green and PGIM's $1.4 billion refinancing deal for 11 Madison Avenue. The episode ends with two recent trading alerts and key takeaways from Trepp’s August CMBS Special Servicing Report. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack major labor market revisions, revealing that job growth was overstated by 911,000 jobs over the past year. We analyze recent data that strengthens the case for a 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. We also dive into Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s op-ed, which critiques the Federal Reserve’s post-2008 monetary policy shift. In commercial real estate, we analyze a NAIOP report pointing to cooling demand in the industrial sector and share Trepp’s data on industrial delinquency. We discuss the latest return-to-office developments, with Paramount joining the list of companies enforcing mandates. Turning to office-to-resi conversion trends, we spotlight Washington, D.C., where new tax incentives aim to accelerate transformation. We close the episodes with two notable retail credit stories. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
• Economic Update: 911,000 Fewer Jobs (1:42)
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Op Ed (11:29)
• Industrial Space Demand Falls (24:02)
• Starwood $930M CMBS Loan (32:37)
• Return to Office Mandates (34:59)
• Washington D.C. Tax Abatements for Office-to-Resi Projects (40:45)
• Retail Credit Stories (43:41)
• Programming Notes (46:02)
• Shoutouts (46:55)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this special episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined again by Shlomo Chopp, Managing Partner of Case Equity Partners, to discuss commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) loan workouts and distressed property situations. Shlomo offers a deep dive into his firm’s strategic approach to navigating complex loan restructurings and asset management. He breaks down the dynamics between small and large borrowers, outlines why CMBS loans often present more flexible workout options than traditional bank financing, and stresses the value of early engagement and negotiation. We also explore current market trends in distressed deals and the challenges in today’s appraisal process. Tune in now.
Episode Notes
• Background & Start in Real Estate (2:01)
• CMBS Loan Workouts (10:41)
• Loan Negotiation Strategies for Borrowers (15:47)
• Strategic Solutions for Asset Management (22:39)
• Distressed Deals & Market Trends (30:32)
• Challenges in the Current Appraisal Process (37:28)
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we assess the current state of the market, explore the commercial real estate (CRE) yield curve, and check in on residential mortgage rate trends. We unpack recent changes to bank reporting rules that could make it easier for banks to hide troubled loans and conceal signs of distress in their lending portfolios. Turning to property stories of the week, we discuss the 1211 Avenue of the Americas loan, which may be returning to performing status despite contributing to the spike in August's CMBS delinquency rate. We also talk about office bright spots, with Manhattan’s strong office leasing recovery and the surge in AI-driven demand in San Francisco, and review three multifamily sales transactions. To close, we share insights from the LifeComps Report Q2 2025 and examine trends in life insurance commercial mortgage returns. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss retail earnings revealing a bifurcated consumer with value players like Five Below and Walmart raising guidance while restaurants struggle, and examine resilient GDP growth despite declining consumer confidence. We dive into our latest CMBS delinquency data, showing office hitting another all-time high of 11.66% and multifamily reaching a 9-year peak. We explore Starwood's $500 million industrial deal and discuss office sector momentum, including Prologis' Manhattan expansion and a unique office-to-hotel conversion proposal. We also examine multifamily transactions like Invesco's $390 million Houston portfolio financing, and apartment sales across Florida, California, and Kansas. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we dive into growing economic concerns, from stagflation risks and the ongoing market uncertainty related to tariffs and Federal Reserve policy. We discuss the quality of the monthly jobs data to forecast future demand, and break down the latest retail sales data and performance, highlighting mixed earnings reports - such as Home Depot’s slight revenue dip amid elevated interest rates. Shifting to the office sector, we spotlight the upcoming October opening of J.P. Morgan’s new $3 billion headquarters and discuss how NYC office visits have, for the first time, surpassed pre-pandemic levels. We also explore the complexities of converting office buildings to residential use in NYC, share updates on office origination data across the country, and report on three notable special servicing transfers. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we are joined by Samir Tejpaul, Managing Director and Head of Capital Markets at Madison Realty Capital. Samir draws parallels between today's market and 2011 when he started his career and shares why he's bullish on 2026. He also explains Madison's approach to analyzing supply and demand imbalances to develop investment theses across different asset classes and geographies. We dive into the evolving private credit landscape, Madison's value creation lending strategy, and their headline-making $720 million office-to-residential conversion loan for the Pfizer headquarters in New York City. We also explore the shifting dynamics of the office sector, the growing momentum behind office-to-residential conversions across the country, and the importance of building long-term client relationships through market cycles. Tune in now.
Episode Notes
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the Fed's challenging position amid mounting political pressure and July's noisy CPI print. We analyze CBRE's exclusive survey showing companies making unprecedented progress in getting employees back to the office, with enforcement and monitoring dramatically increasing. We dive deep into student housing performance across the top 15 metros with international students. We also explore quantum computing's emerging impact on commercial real estate demand, drawing parallels to AI's data center boom. Plus, we cover multifamily stories including a NYC migrant hotel conversion and apartment transactions in Portland and Seattle. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
• Economic Update: Fed Policy Pressure, CPI Data & Inflation Targets (1:57)
• Back to Office: CBRE Survey on Attendance Enforcement (16:25)
• Back to School: International Student Housing Market Analysis (21:54)
• Back to the Future: Quantum Computing's Impact on CRE (31:25)
• Multifamily Stories: NYC Hotel to Resi Conversion and Portland & Seattle Transactions (35:27)
• Programming Notes (40:09)
• Shoutouts (42:08)
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine weak labor data and mixed economic signals that are fueling Fed rate cut expectations while recession probabilities remain relatively contained. We analyze the crisis at the federal appraisal regulator and explore demographic challenges in the appraisal industry. We dive deep into lodging sector performance, revealing how pandemic-era capex underinvestment correlates with loan delinquency risk across hotel property types. In multifamily, we cover Elmi Communities' portfolio sale and liquidation, and New Rochelle's affordable housing success. We examine S2 Capital's acquisition of Fort Capital's industrial platform as Chris Powers pivots toward technology and artificial intelligence. We close with mixed-use stories, including CoreWeave's data center purchase and a Houston retail complex sale. Tune in now.
Episode notes:
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the Fed’s decision to keep rates steady and provide our thoughts on whether there will be a rate cut in September. We discuss Friday’s tariff deadline, negotiations that are still pending, and the implications on the economy. In other parts of the market, we analyze recent bank earnings and some of the findings as it relates to commercial real estate (CRE) portfolios. We analyze CBRE’s positive earnings report and some signals that have come about from recent real estate executive commentary. We dive into a recent Trepp report on the commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) “maturity drag,” where roughly $23 billion in loans are stalling past their due dates, and preview Trepp’s July CMBS Delinquency Report numbers, which showed that the rate was up 10 basis points to 7.23%. Tune in now.
Episode Notes
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Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we spotlight the top-performing U.S. cities driving the commercial real estate (CRE) market and break down the key differences between value drivers in commercial versus residential real estate. We discuss the single-family housing market impact on CRE, as well as general housing affordability concerns. Analyzing CRE valuation approaches, we provide insights into cashflows and market strength across different asset classes. We share two major real estate transactions from the week in New York City, including The Van Barton Group’s $103 million acquisition of 1011 First Avenue, and wrap up the episode with multifamily market challenges and outlook. Tune in now.
This episode is sponsored by Resilience Insurance Analytics
Episode notes:
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we discuss escalating political tensions surrounding Federal Reserve independence and examine June's inflation data showing limited tariff impacts. We analyze the growing role of private credit in filling gaps left by traditional lenders and discuss concerns about market opacity and systemic risk. We break down our latest special servicing data, including office’s all-time high rate of 16.38%. We explore office challenges in Manhattan and DC alongside Austin green shoots, cover Starwood's $2.2B purchase of Brookfield's net lease platform, and highlight multifamily transactions across Brooklyn, Washington DC, and Minneapolis. Tune in now.
Episode Notes:
• Economic Update
• Private Credit: Market Growth, Risks & Regulatory Questions
• Starwood's $2.2B Net Lease Acquisition from Brookfield
• Special Servicing Report: Office Hits All-Time High
• Office Crabgrass: 5 Bryant Park Refi Challenges & DC Value Reduction
• Office Green Shoots: Nvidia's Austin Expansion Plans
• Multifamily Transactions: Brooklyn, DC & Minneapolis Sales
• Programming Notes
• Shoutouts
Please take our listener feedback survey: www.surveymonkey.com/r/BMPXLHG
Questions or comments? Contact us at podcast@trepp.com.
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