Here I consider the various events that can prevent an account in history from being preserved and reaching us. Recognizing these "chances and changes of this mortal life" can help us to avoid making arguments from silence against testimony. We should not demand that we possess multiple accounts of an ancient event. I then revisit the analogy of your brother telling you that he won the lottery, setting it in the 1800s when letters and information are hard to exchange, to give a better sense of the problems with arguments from silence in history. Here again is Tim McGrew's article on arguments from silence in history. https://timothymcgrew.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/01/The-Argument-from-Silence-Acta-Analytica-Tim-2013.pdf