Tensions are spiking: F-35s in Puerto Rico, Venezuelan troop surges, boat strikes at sea, and louder great-power echoes. In this 10–15 minute solo explainer, I break down what “war” would actually look like here (hint: incidents and limited strikes, not an invasion), why the standoff escalated, and what to watch next. In this episode: What’s happening right now—and what “counts” as war Why tensions spiked: counternarcotics ops, Essequibo, and Caracas politics The hard numbers so far on boat strikes, seizures, and casualties Who’s backing whom: Maduro’s appeals to Russia/China and regional blowback The legal/political guardrails that limit escalation An easy escalation ladder: from intercepts → limited strikes → (unlikely) state-on-state war What signals to watch in the coming days If this helped cut through the noise, follow the show and share it with a friend.