In the premiere episode of our new monthly series, The Jim Paulsen Show we dig into Jim's latest research and the charts that define today's economic and market landscape. Jim lays out a compelling case for why the private sector is more resilient than many believe, why a recession may not be on the horizon, and why so many parts of the market still look cheap despite record index levels. We explore the implications of tariffs, the underappreciated productivity boom, the potential for a market broadening, and the risks posed by policy uncertainty.
Whether you're a macro thinker, a data-driven investor, or just trying to make sense of this confusing market, Jim brings clarity, charts, and contrarian insight.
🔍 Topics Covered:
Why recession odds may be lower than consensus believes
The disconnect between pessimism and actual economic conditions
The impact of tariffs and why they may be disinflationary
What’s really happening with the hard vs. soft economic data
Why tech jobs are flat even as tech market cap soars
The mystery of weak dividend growth during a bull market
Why most corporate profits are below trend despite strong S&P earnings
What could drive a broadening of the rally
Valuation dispersion and why 76% of industries still look cheap
Evidence micro caps may be leading a shift in market leadership
What falling confidence among the wealthy might signal for stocks
How we’re mismeasuring productivity in the AI era
⏱️ Timestamps:
00:00 – Jim’s contrarian view: why a recession may not happen
02:00 – Private sector balance sheet strength
06:00 – The problem with policy staying tight during slow growth
08:00 – Surprise index vs. hard data and what’s changing
10:50 – Are tariffs truly inflationary?
15:00 – Why financial markets aren't signaling inflation risk
17:50 – Can hard data finally move the Fed?
20:00 – Tech market cap vs. employment: why jobs aren’t growing
25:30 – Dividend growth is stalling—what it means
29:00 – Corporate profits: below trend for a decade
33:00 – S&P profits vs. broader corporate earnings
35:00 – Could the rally broaden beyond the Mag 7?
38:00 – Micro caps and early signs of leadership shift
40:00 – Why falling confidence among the wealthy may be bullish
45:00 – 76% of industries are still cheap—how is that possible?
48:00 – Sector breadth is historically narrow—why that could change
50:00 – Tech’s risk-adjusted returns show surprising strength
52:00 – Trump, the Fed, and the risk to central bank independence
