n this Wednesday afternoon, NHC is closely monitoring a broad area of low pressure located near the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula,  producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, gradual development is forecast and this system is likely to become a tropical depression while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two. It has a high (70 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and a high (80 percent)  chance during the next five days. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next day or so, spreading across western Cuba, South Florida, and the Florida Keys on Friday and Saturday. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula, western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and the Florida Peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.

Elsewhere, a weak surface trough located about 150 miles northeast of the northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized shower activity. Surface pressures are currently high across the area, and significant development of this system appears unlikely as it moves generally east-northeastward the next several days away from the southeastern United States. It has a low (10 percent) chance during the next 48 hours and five days.  www.hurricanes.gov