On this Thursday afternoon,  a broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula.  Despite strong upper-level winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during the next day or two.  Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings will likely be required for some of these areas later today. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days. Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.  These heavy rains could cause scattered to numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys. www.hurricanes.gov