..DISTURBANCE NOW CROSSING SOUTH FLORIDA…
...FLOODING RAINS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance IS ABOUT 35 MILES (60 km) northeast of Naples, Florida. The system is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast with an additional increase in forward speed is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the east Monday night. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move across southern or central Florida today, over the southwestern Atlantic north of the Bahamas tonight, and near or to the north of Bermuda on Monday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm off the east coast of Florida by tonight, and some strengthening is forecast tonight through Monday as the system moves farther away from Florida over the western Atlantic. It has a high (90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and during the next five days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 210 miles (335 km) to the east of the center. Over the past few hours, a weather station at Fowey Rocks near Miami, Florida reported sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h) at an elevation of 144 ft (44 m).
RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will continue to affect portions of South Florida and the Keys through this morning, beginning to diminish this afternoon. Heavy rainfall will continue across the northwestern Bahamas through today. The following storm totals are expected:
South Florida: Storm total of 6 to 10 inches with isolated maxima of 15 inches. Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected.
Florida Keys: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with isolated maxima of 10 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.
Northwestern Bahamas: Storm total of 4 to 8 inches with maxima of 12 inches. This rain may produce flash and urban flooding.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Florida today, especially in squalls, and in the northwestern Bahamas by this afternoon.
STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much 1- 3 ft above normal tide levels in the extreme northwestern Bahamas.
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
TORNADOES: A couple tornadoes are possible over the southern Florida Peninsula and Upper Keys through early afternoon.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.