Show Notes — Current Market & News Briefing (FX, Commodities, Trade & Geopolitics)
Date: Tuesday, 28 October 2025
Episode summary:
Yen firms as USD/JPY slips below 152 post US–Japan summit. Oil treads water with OPEC+ leaning toward another small supply increase; gold capped below USD 4k/oz; copper eases after a strong run. The US and Japan sign a critical-minerals and rare-earths framework with six-month project support timelines. China–ASEAN sign FTA 3.0 upgrade. UK floats a “steel club” with US/EU to address Chinese oversupply. Sanctions drive Russia energy headlines; Lukoil weighs asset sales and Berlin faces a deadline to resolve Rosneft’s German assets. DPRK–Russia diplomacy deepens; Tokyo–Seoul set an October 30 leader meeting.
Segments & suggested timestamps:
- Intro & market setup — FX overview with USD/JPY move, yuan fixing context
- Commodities — OPEC+ path, IEA LNG build-out, precious/base metals tone
- Trade & tariffs — US–Japan minerals pact, China–ASEAN FTA 3.0, UK “steel club,” Canada–US tensions, Japan market access for Brazilian beef
- Geopolitics — Gaza updates, Russia–Ukraine sanctions mechanics, DPRK–Russia talks, Tokyo–Seoul summit planning
- What to watch — Trump–Xi outcomes, OPEC+ formal decision, sanction enforcement impacts on flows
Key takeaways for listeners:
- Policy coordination headlines drove a yen bid; broader G10 FX remains range-bound into event risk.
- Energy is balanced between sanction noise and incremental OPEC+ supply; LNG capacity growth looms large for medium-term gas pricing.
- The US–Japan minerals pact is designed to de-risk rare-earths supply chains with tangible project support in six months.
- Sanction implementation details and asset-ownership resolutions in Europe could redirect Russian energy flows.
- Asian diplomacy is active on multiple tracks (US–Japan, China–ASEAN, Japan–Korea), with supply-chain and security linkages front and center.
