In today's episode, Energy Flux founding editor Seb Kennedy runs through the paper he presented at the recent Gastech 2025 conference in Milan.
The title of the paper is Mapping the Storage-Speculation Nexus: Hedge fund positioning and the TTF forward curve.
The paper explores a novel methodology for identifying investment fund trading strategies on Dutch TTF, the benchmark European natural gas futures price.
Seb explains the methodology in full, and what it tells us about last year's TTF bull run and subsequent dramatic correction in February and April this year.
He concludes by suggesting policy reforms that could be explored to mitigate some of the speculation-driven price volatility that has characterised TTF in recent times.
The full slide deck can be downloaded at www.EnergyFlux.news, where you can sign up for the Energy Flux newsletter -- where all this research was originally published in 2024 and early 2025.