Welcome to another episode of The Coral Capital Podcast, a show where we bring on guests from tech, business, politics, and culture to talk about all things Japan.
In this episode, economist and long-time Japan optimist Jesper Koll breaks down how Japan is faring amid rising global protectionism, demographic shifts, and geopolitical uncertainty. A resident of Japan since 1986, Jesper has spent decades at the forefront of Japan analysis and investment, having served as chief strategist and head of research for JP Morgan and Merrill Lynch. He currently advises Monex Group, sits on the Japan Catalyst Fund’s investment committee, and serves on multiple high-level advisory boards, including Governor Yuriko Koike’s.
Jesper warns that a Trump 2.0 presidency could trigger a double whammy for Japan: a weaker dollar slashing Japanese corporate profits and an aggressive U.S. tariff regime pushing China to dump exports into Southeast Asia—hurting Japan’s industrial giants in the process. But he's still bullish on Japan.
Why? Jesper sees Japan as “capitalism that works”—a system quietly modernizing under the radar. From record M&A and MBO activity to a younger generation of CEOs open to change, Japan is entering a new phase of productivity and openness. He highlights the ongoing shift to performance-based pay, increased immigration, and growing startup dynamism as key signs of this transformation.
- Why a weaker dollar is Japan’s silent earnings risk: With two-thirds of Japanese listed company profits coming from overseas, a 10-yen appreciation can slash earnings by 8%. If Trump 2.0 weakens the dollar, Japan takes a hit—fast.
- Japan isn’t insular—it’s hyper-globalized: Despite its reputation, Japan generates a higher percentage of corporate profits overseas than the U.S. or Germany. From Daichi Life to Toyota, Japan’s biggest firms are already global players.
- The real threat of Trump’s China policy is deflation via the Global South: U.S. tariffs could force China to dump excess goods into Southeast Asia, undercutting Japanese firms not just on price, but now on quality too.
- Made in Japan = 30~40% price premium: Companies like Shiseido are relocating production to Japan not for politics, but for branding. “Brand-shoring” is about value, not alliances.
- Why energy—not labor—is Japan’s factory hurdle: Labor can be automated. The real constraint on manufacturing in Japan may be uncertainty around energy costs and nuclear policy.
- Japan’s brain gain is real—and measurable: While the population shrinks, immigration is quietly surging. Every day, 1,200 people get 3-year work permits. Companies are adapting with performance-based pay, not seniority resulting in higher talent liquidity.
- Record M&A and MBOs aren’t a coincidence: As Japan’s CEOs get younger and legacy-heavy firms face succession issues, a wave of corporate transformation is underway. “Metabolism,” Jesper says, is up.
- What Japan needs most is inheritance tax reform: MacArthur’s anti-zaibatsu policies made sense post-WWII. But now, without reform, Japan risks losing its $4.5T+ generational wealth transfer to debt paydown instead of innovation.
- Japan ‘s “capitalism that works”: A system that’s democratic, fair, globally integrated, and quietly undergoing a transformation from within.
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