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The Behavioral Investor
Wilfred Waters
27 episodes
3 days ago
We solve the mathematical problem of causing an enormous increase in one's bank account balance through human effort. The podcast therefore has two themes, mathematics and human behaviour. Together, behavioural investing. We take a first principles approach by summarising scientific studies and interviewing psychology and mathematics researchers. This will show us the first principles. We will then reason from these first principles to the best strategy to cause optimal human investing behaviour.
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Investing
Business
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All content for The Behavioral Investor is the property of Wilfred Waters and is served directly from their servers with no modification, redirects, or rehosting. The podcast is not affiliated with or endorsed by Podjoint in any way.
We solve the mathematical problem of causing an enormous increase in one's bank account balance through human effort. The podcast therefore has two themes, mathematics and human behaviour. Together, behavioural investing. We take a first principles approach by summarising scientific studies and interviewing psychology and mathematics researchers. This will show us the first principles. We will then reason from these first principles to the best strategy to cause optimal human investing behaviour.
Show more...
Investing
Business
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S2E6 🐢 What 25% Geometric Return Sounds Like: Alistair Cowley
The Behavioral Investor
58 minutes 34 seconds
4 years ago
S2E6 🐢 What 25% Geometric Return Sounds Like: Alistair Cowley

Alistair Cowley is a value investor who runs a website: growthwithvalue.com and podcast by the same name (https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy8xZjJjYzQ5MC9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw?sa=X&ved=0CAMQ4aUDahcKEwjwy9yy_azvAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAg&hl=en-QA). His heroes include Warren Buffett and Tony Hansen (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FD7dF2QrnTw), particularly with regard to having skin in the game and only taking a performance fee. As an aspiring fund manager, Alistair has written an owner's manual for his portfolio (https://growthwithvalue.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Owners-Manual-1.pdf). 


An example of his analysis skills is this report on Flight Centre: https://growthwithvalue.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/12/Flight-Centre-Company-Analysis.pdf. As shown in this report, he uses a checklist. This has been distilled from a number of books by expert investors, such as found in: 

  1. The book Financial Shenanigans (https://www.amazon.com/Financial-Shenanigans-Accounting-Gimmicks-Reports/dp/0071703071), and the 
  2. Credit Suisse whitepaper Measuring the Moat (https://research-doc.credit-suisse.com/docView?language=ENG&format=PDF&sourceid=em&document_id=1066439791&serialid=RojFyPPuyB52GjdsfOiNhlbEB2L63HISLZqSTpL1p48%3d)* 
  3. And Tao of Charlie Munger (https://www.amazon.com/Tao-Charlie-Munger-Compilation-Commentary/dp/150115334X) In one of our standard final questions he mentioned the mental handwashing equivalent of ignoring market volatility. 


This is a point emphasised by the great Australian investment advisor Peter Thornhill: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCwH2W3eN7WoWWTC7KiUVR6A/videos. Some useful episodes from the Growth With Value Podcast are: 


  1. Filtering the market: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy8xZjJjYzQ5MC9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/ZTQwM2JkMGQtN2VmNy00MDQ5LTg1YjgtN2JjNDIyODQ0OWY4?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwjwy9yy_azvAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAw&hl=en-QA
  2. Discount Cashflow Analysis: https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9hbmNob3IuZm0vcy8xZjJjYzQ5MC9wb2RjYXN0L3Jzcw/episode/NTk5MjE4N2QtMzI2NS00OWQxLWIyNjgtM2JlYzQ5YjlkN2E1?sa=X&ved=0CAUQkfYCahcKEwjwy9yy_azvAhUAAAAAHQAAAAAQAw&hl=en-QA 


Alistair's watchlist can be found here: https://growthwithvalue.com/watchlist/. It is a good place to start to see which businesses he likes based on his framework.


*Mauboussin is a great resource: https://themokaya.com/2020/12/28/michael-mauboussin-resources/

The Behavioral Investor
We solve the mathematical problem of causing an enormous increase in one's bank account balance through human effort. The podcast therefore has two themes, mathematics and human behaviour. Together, behavioural investing. We take a first principles approach by summarising scientific studies and interviewing psychology and mathematics researchers. This will show us the first principles. We will then reason from these first principles to the best strategy to cause optimal human investing behaviour.