Topics:
-- Nick Saban on good and great, talent and execution
-- Update on the trend-following drawdown
-- Feelings that come up during trading, marketing
-- Design a system for healthy discomfort
-- Mike and Jerry dominate fantasy hockey
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Mike and Jerry open up about how they're coping with the recent drawdown in trend-following.
Recent essays relevant to this conversation
- Trend-Following in 2008: From +70% to Negative 1% to +92%
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Even during strong performance periods for trend-following, the financial and emotional swings can be significant. 2008 is a great example of this. Interestingly, 2006 and 2007 do as well.
Supporting Essay: Trend-Following in 2008: From +70% to Negative 1% to +92%
The U.S. Dollar is a hot topic of conversation lately. Tariffs, Trump, Bessent, reserve currency status, a new trade accord, etc. When the news heats up, trend-traders find calm in their rules.
In this episode, we check in on the trends of the major currency markets vs. the Dollar.
Devin Haran is the founder of Somerset Hills Capital, a value-focused investment manager. He got his start in investment banking, making stops at Merrill Lynch and RBC Capital Markets before launching Somerset Hills. He holds a BA from Amherst and an MBA from Columbia Business School.
In this conversation, we cover a range of topics:
-- Baseball continues to over-optimize, but the NBA is going the other way
-- The Pareto Principle and how it applies not only to trend-following, but equity indexes as well (Michael's latest article)
-- The value of starting from modest means and learning how to stay in business
-- Our innate behavioral tendencies tend to serve us well in a life or death situation, but not so well in the markets
How to get in touch with Devin:
Darius Foroux is the author of 8 books, including The Stoic Path to Wealth. He writes about productivity, Stoicism, and wealth building. His ideas and work have been featured in TIME, NBC, Fast Company, Inc., Observer, and many more publications. Until now, more than 30 million people have read his articles.
Carley Garner is a commodity market strategist and broker, Stocks & Commodities Magazine columnist, TheStreet.com Contributor, and author of several books. Her firm DeCarley Trading is a full-service futures brokerage that also provides free trading education. Follow her on X and Linkedin.
Topics we cover:
-- Starting is easier than staying
-- Running a lean business is a skill
-- Focus on the most important thing, ignoring everything else
-- The Yen carry-trade similarities to 2007
-- Signs of financial stress are becoming evident
Mike and Jerry back in the saddle discussing the extreme market moves over the past couple of weeks.
Supporting Substack article: https://mikemelissinos.substack.com/p/the-price-of-admission
Supporting Substack article: https://mikemelissinos.substack.com/p/something-good-coming
Supporting Substack article: https://mikemelissinos.substack.com/p/a-slight-edge-is-enough-even-preferred
None of us are immune to making emotional decisions.
Today on Talking Trends, Mike Melissinos discusses how we can all learn from what our emotions are communicating to us. And how we can use this to develop wisdom and improve our investing performance.
Listen in to learn about famed investor Peter Lynch's Magellan Fund returns and the mythical Fidelity study that showed how the average investor actually lost money despite the fund's annualized returns of 29%.
Check out all episodes on YouTube
Key Takeaways:
Talking Trends is a production of Melissinos Trading. You can find show notes and transcripts on YouTube. Full video episodes are available on LinkedIn and X.
If you have a question for Mike about a better way to manage your money and investments, leave me an info@melissinostrading.com and I might answer it on a future episode.
Links and Resources:
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading LLC or Chesapeake Capital Corp (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast.
Topics of discussion on this episode:
— New trend-following investor gets cold feet
— Should we change the name of our podcast?
— Dynamic Position Sizing = Dynamic Profit Slashing
— Smoother returns...but they'll be lower
Links and Resources: Do you have a question for Michael and Jerry? Please DM us at @mmelissinos or @rjparkerjr09.
Mike's Links
Melissinos Trading LLC
Jerry's Links
Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading and Jerry Parker is the founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital Corp.
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading or Chesapeake Capital Corp. (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp. may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast. For more information, please visit melissinostrading.com and chesapeakecapital.com.
Topics of discussion on this episode:
— Harvard President plagiarism
— Knowing what you're buying
— Finding the best cup of coffee
— Standing for something builds trust
Links and Resources: Do you have a question for Michael and Jerry? Please DM us at @mmelissinos or @rjparkerjr09.
Mike's Links
Melissinos Trading LLC
Jerry's Links
Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading and Jerry Parker is the founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital Corp.
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading or Chesapeake Capital Corp. (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp. may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast. For more information, please visit melissinostrading.com and chesapeakecapital.com.
Constraints liberate us from confusion, from compiling endless information, from jumping from diet to diet or from one investment to another.
Embrace constraints. They focus us. They hold us accountable. They help us calm down and move forward in a more sturdy and sustainable direction.
Topics of discussion on this episode:
— Our favorite investing quote
— Charlie Munger on "diversification"
— Mike's LinkedIn post on the Sharpe Ratio
— Recent popular Twitter posts from Jerry
Links and Resources: Do you have a question for Michael and Jerry? Please DM us at @mmelissinos or @rjparkerjr09.
Mike's Links
Jerry's Links
Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading and Jerry Parker is the founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital Corp.
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading or Chesapeake Capital Corp. (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp. may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast. For more information, please visit melissinostrading.com and chesapeakecapital.com.
We're back after a two month hiatus. Mike and Jerry bring some heat on this episode.
Links and Resources: Do you have a question for Michael and Jerry? Please DM us at @mmelissinos or @rjparkerjr09.
Mike's Links
Jerry's Links
Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading and Jerry Parker is the founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital Corp.
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading or Chesapeake Capital Corp. (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp. may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast. For more information, please visit melissinostrading.com and chesapeakecapital.com.
Thank you for listening.
Topics of discussion on this episode:
— CTA's vs Trend-Followers
— The combination of hard rules and philosophical guidelines
— Finding shorts in an equity bull market
— Exxon and Chevron
Links and Resources: Do you have a question for Michael and Jerry? Please DM us at @mmelissinos or @rjparkerjr09.
Mike's Links
Jerry's Links
Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading and Jerry Parker is the founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital Corp.
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading or Chesapeake Capital Corp. (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp. may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast. For more information, please visit melissinostrading.com and chesapeakecapital.com.
Thank you for listening.
Topics of discussion on this episode:
— Make tough decisions right away. Waiting tends to compound the losses and opportunity costs similar to trading.
— Incorporate more trend-following into everyday life and decision-making. Mike provides examples with his one year old son.
— The best marketing is the best product.
— Chesapeake's ETF goes live (ticker TFPN)
Links and Resources: Do you have a question for Michael and Jerry? Please DM us at @mmelissinos or @rjparkerjr09.
Mike's Links
Jerry's Links
Michael Melissinos is the founder of Melissinos Trading and Jerry Parker is the founder and CEO of Chesapeake Capital Corp.
Due to industry regulations, they will not specifically discuss their funds (by name or symbol) on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own and do not reflect the opinions of Melissinos Trading or Chesapeake Capital Corp. (or any of its employees). This podcast is meant for informational purposes only and should not be used as a basis for investment decisions. Clients of Melissinos Trading and Chesapeake Capital Corp. may maintain positions and securities discussed in this podcast. For more information, please visit melissinostrading.com and chesapeakecapital.com.
Thank you for listening.