Opening Bell - Morning Commentary
Indian Markets Pause After Four-Week Rally
Indian markets ended their four-week winning streak in the first week of November 2025, with the Nifty declining 0.65% and the Sensex falling 0.55% to close at 25,722 and 83,938, respectively, marking a pause in the recent rally amid profit-taking.
Sentiment turned cautious after the US Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75%-4% range. The Fed hinted that this 25-bps cut might be the final one in 2025, which dampened hopes of further near-term easing.
The US earnings season exceeded expectations, with 83% of S&P 500 companies beating analyst estimates—the highest percentage since Q2 2021. The blended earnings growth rate for the third quarter reached 10.7%, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-over-year growth. Technology stocks led gains, particularly after Amazon reported strong cloud computing results with AWS revenue increasing 20% in the third quarter, exceeding Wall Street estimates.
In a significant development, President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a landmark trade agreement on October 30 in South Korea. The deal includes a 10-percentage-point reduction in fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese goods (from 20% to 10%), bringing the total tariff rate down to approximately 47% from 57%.
China committed to suspending the new rare-earth export controls announced on October 9 and to issuing general licenses for the export of rare earths, gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite.
Nifty is poised to open lower and breach the swing low support at 25,718, established on October 24th, 2025. However, it is likely to remain above its 20 DEMA at 25,590, which should provide near-term support. On the upside, the 26,000-26,100 zone is expected to remain a resistance.
