Moments before polls opened in the Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse by-election, the bookies predicted that the SNP would easily retain the seat. Katy Loudon was their clear favourite while Scottish Labour were deemed outsiders after a chaotic campaign. Indeed, punters were offered 11/1 odds on Davy Russell winning the seat. 

But he did just that as Scottish Labour’s 8,500 votes saw them top the poll. The SNP fell 500 votes short and lost 16% of their 2021 vote share. In third, and within 1,500 votes of winning the contest, came Reform UK who decisively established themselves as contenders in constituencies across Scotland. 

To drill down into the by-election result and its wider implications for next year’s Holyrood election, Coll McCail is joined by Brian Leishman, the Labour MP for Alloa and Grangemouth,  and Jonathan Shafi, the co-editor of Conter, a columnist with the National newsletter and the author of the Independence Captured newsletter. 

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