Jon Fergusion of Ashgrove Capital on battle tested SaaS ARR lending

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Savvy Capital

41 episodes

5 days ago

The Savvy Capital Show breaks down how winning companies are built across go to market, finance, operations, and competitive strategy. Get practical breakdowns of how real companies win. We go deep on go to market, growth models, pricing, finance and operations, organizational design, and competitive positioning. Guests include CMOs, CFOs, COOs, founders, operating partners, and industry analysts. Expect frameworks, playbooks, and metrics that leaders can apply on Monday morning. Subscribe at savvycapitalshow.com.

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Jon Fergusion of Ashgrove Capital on battle tested SaaS ARR lending

Savvy Capital

11 minutes 35 seconds

3 months ago

Jon Fergusion of Ashgrove Capital on battle tested SaaS ARR lending

Jon Ferguson @ Ashgrove Capital with The Savvy Capital Show at SRI

Why borrowers are choosing ARR credit over equity while valuations reset, and where Ashgrove sees real risk in pan-European software and services.
Underwriting focus on product stickiness and cohort behavior: gross and net retention, down-sell, up-sell, and how mission-critical use drives churn.
Market exposure matters: creditworthiness of SME customer bases and cyclicality drive volatility more than headline growth.
GTM efficiency as a predictor: CAC, payback, LTV to CAC, and unit economics separate durable growth from cash-burn.
Covenant design tied to value: growth-to-ARR and minimum liquidity to catch inefficiency early; comfortable with negative EBITDA only when efficient growth is provable; rule-of-40 discipline has returned in valuations.