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The race to define the Republican Party’s direction has grown sharper since Donald Trump returned to the White House, sparking energetic debate within the RNC and among candidates vying to set the agenda for the upcoming midterms and eventually the 2028 presidential election. According to Wikipedia’s latest data, the Republican National Committee is actively planning for 2026, where they face the challenge of maintaining their legislative gains and solidifying policy priorities around the economy and immigration, two areas where Ipsos polling finds them consistently polling ahead of Democrats in public trust. However, there is continued division among Republican voters, with some focused on economic recovery and border security, while others express concern over political extremism.

In terms of personalities, JD Vance remains the leading candidate for the GOP’s 2028 presidential ticket and is currently polling far ahead of other notable Republicans such as Ron DeSantis, Marco Rubio, and Donald Trump Jr., based on the latest Race to the WH aggregator published September 22, 2025. Trump himself maintains significant influence, fostering speculation about a potential third term despite constitutional limits. Trump’s public musings and the sale of “Trump 2028” merchandise have generated ongoing debate, with Congressman Andy Ogles and some conservative activists pushing for a constitutional amendment that would allow a non-consecutive third term. Trump’s own comments vacillate between ruling it out and keeping the door open, which has only accelerated chatter about his long-term intentions and the RNC’s strategic choices.

On Capitol Hill, House Republicans have prioritized national security, directing attention towards threats to American agriculture, including concerns about agroterrorism and illicit Chinese operations. Two recent hearings, one spearheaded by Dale Strong from Alabama and another by Josh Brecheen from Oklahoma, highlighted dangers posed by organized crime infiltrating the agricultural sector and money laundering through legal front businesses. These national security alarms are being amplified as key messaging points ahead of the midterms and broader 2028 cycle.

Yet, not all is united within Republican ranks. Seven state legislators have switched parties since early 2025, with defections going both to and from the GOP, signaling continued turbulence at the state level. The RNC and party leadership are watching these movements carefully, especially as special elections in states like Iowa and Pennsylvania have yielded mixed results. Democrats have made minor gains in some lower-turnout special elections, but Republicans retain robust ground game and full control of 23 state governments, compared to Democrats’ control in 15.

Polls from RealClearPolling indicate the Republican Party’s favorable ratings remain underwater, with just above 40 percent approval and a high unfavorable number, though still ahead of Democratic favorability. The generic Congressional ballot currently gives Democrats a modest edge, but GOP strategists are counting on their advantage on core issues like the economy and immigration to guide them through the 2026 campaign. However, standing in their way is the persistent perception among many Americans that both major parties are failing to bring meaningful change, with some insiders suggesting the GOP’s best chance lies in amplifying an outsider identity and courting disengaged but ideologically driven voters.

Party infighting and governing challenges are coming to a head as the latest government shutdown looms. Analysts like G. Elliott Morris note that polls show voters are more likely to blame Republicans for the shutdown, even as both parties dig in their heels over health care funding and spending levels. This dynamic puts added pressure on the current Republican congressional majority and the...