Is Business Strategy Just Luck, Privilege, and Repetition?
Over time, I have become increasingly cautious about what strategy truly means. I have spent much of my career studying it, teaching it, and trying to apply it. Yet the longer I engage with the topic, the more I have come to wonder whether we sometimes overstate what we can actually achieve.
Respecting the Tradition
It is important to acknowledge that the study of strategy has given us remarkable insights. The field has taught generations of scholars to think about positioning, competitive advantage, and the careful use of scarce resources. These ideas have shaped me deeply.
The narrative assumes that we can diagnose a situation, marshal our resources, and execute a well-chosen plan. Yet when one examines real world examples as it actually unfolds—in markets, in careers, in scientific discovery—the connection between deliberate planning and eventual success appears less direct to me.
The Invisible Forces: Luck and Social Position
Much of what we observe as performance may be better explained by forces that are rarely incorporated into our models of organizational life: luck and social position. Luck determines when and where one is born, who crosses one’s path, and which events unfold unexpectedly in one’s favor. Social position shapes access to information, status, and networks that magnify opportunity.
None of this invalidates the importance of strategy. It simply means that strategy often operates within constraints that are difficult to see and even harder to measure.
If luck and position matter so much, what remains within our control? The answer lies in gumption and humility, rather than perfect decision-making. The causes of success and failure are often intertwined.
In such a world, the most strategic capability may not be the ability to choose perfectly, but the ability to continue acting (gumption) when the outcomes are unclear. It is not brilliance, but endurance, or… stupidity.
The Engine of Performance: Gumption and Faith
I have grown to see persistence as the quiet foundation beneath every form of performance. Those who continue to show up, to be curious, and to believe that improvement is possible—despite repeated setbacks—often discover forms of success that were invisible.
To me, this does not diminish the value of strategy; it deepens it. It reminds us that deliberate planning must coexist with faith. Something we have known for all of humanity.
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The Humility to See Complexity
The traditional tools of strategy remain valuable, but they describe only one slice of a vast, open, and adaptive system. Recognizing this should not make us cynical—it should make us humble.
True strategic insight may not come from trying to control the world, but from patience, grace, and joy.
Strategy, at its core, is not about mastery.
It is about learning to move forward through muddy messes—again and again—while still believing that tomorrow can be brighter than today.