We get it wrong—over and over again.

We chase the exciting, the flashy, the dream jobs we see on TV and TikTok.

Entrepreneurs, influencers, movie stars, pro athletes. The few that make it look easy.

But we rarely ask: what’s the probability of actually succeeding?

I’ve been thinking about this a lot.

As someone who’s built something unconventional, I know how seductive the dream can be.

But I also know how important it is to run the numbers.

If you multiply the likelihood of success with the actual return, you start to see the truth:

boring, predictable careers usually win.

Plumbers, nurses, corporate sales reps, mechanics—they’re often the ones with stable incomes and clear paths.

And if you’re strategic? If you keep learning, keep building, keep stacking skills—the upside is enormous.

Before you chase the hype, run a basic expected value calculation.

The return on boring is surprisingly high.

It just takes work, humility, and patience.

But over a lifetime, it adds up—quietly, steadily, and powerfully.