This month, we’re pleased to welcome Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, a leading provider of economic research and analytical tools. Dr. Zandi oversees Moody’s Analytics' economic research and is a trusted advisor to policymakers, businesses, and the media. He is the author of Paying the Price and Financial Shock, - described by The New York Times as the “clearest guide” to the financial crisis - and also hosts the Inside Economics podcast.

In this episode, Mark shares his latest outlook on the U.S. economy, covering key themes such as tariffs, consumer spending trends, Fed rate cut expectations, and inflation pressures. He also discusses the rising recession risk and how evolving trade policies may impact the broader landscape. We then turn to private credit’s growing role in the financial system, Moody’s recent research on private credit systemic risk and the shift from a hub-and-spoke banking model to a more interconnected network post-GFC. To wrap up, Mark reflects on the biggest economic surprise of the year so far—and what unexpected developments might lie ahead.